Intelligence work is at least half guess work and connecting the dots. What you described about Bodansky is why the analysts don't go out on a limb connecting dots and what has gotten us in trouble. No one should expect them to be correct all the time or even 75% of the time.
Also, Bodansky was the chief counter-terrorism expert for Congress in the 90's. He TOLD Congress that something was going to happen in the heartland and it would involve Muslim extremists using lily whites. He had even more detail than that but my book is out on loan to a friend and I can't remember more of what he said, but I can tell you, it proved to be true.
After writing a ludicrous story about "female Russian commandos" hanging out with the peaceniks outside Greenham Common during the Cruise Missile deployment there, Jane's got a frosty letter from Her Majesty's Ministry of Defense saying it was BS. The editor called him in, asked for sources, and called the sources...who all said, "Never heard of him."
Later on, he introduced 100% unsourced and 100% fictional material about bin Laden's teenage life in his biography of Osama.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Also, Bodansky was the chief counter-terrorism expert for Congress in the 90's. He TOLD Congress that something was going to happen in the heartland and it would involve Muslim extremists using lily whites. He had even more detail than that but my book is out on loan to a friend and I can't remember more of what he said, but I can tell you, it proved to be true.
He wrote the book after the fact and claimed he'd said that in (conveniently classified) reports to Congress. Given his track record elsewhere, I'd take those claims with a grain of salt.