CA: Dems shake off scourge of recall

Riverside Press-Enterprise ^ | Jim Miller

[NormsRevenge]

California Democrats were a somber lot when they met earlier this year in San Jose for their first gathering since the party's drubbing in the recall election that ousted former Gov. Gray Davis.

For good reason.

Arnold Schwarzenegger and other GOP replacement candidates received almost two-thirds of the vote, even though only about one-third of the electorate is Republican.

"We've bounced right back," said Mary Ann Andreas, a Democratic delegate from Banning.

And Democrats knew that Schwarzenegger's victory could hurt them in November. Democrats carried California in 1992, 1996 and 2000, but now the party entered an election year with the governor's office occupied by a popular action-film star friendly with the Bush family.

As they head to Boston for the Democratic National Convention that begins today, some state Democrats say they're holding their heads high and looking for a little payback.

They dismiss the October recall as an aberration and voice near certainty that the state's bounty of 55 electoral votes - by far the most of any state and about a fifth of the total needed to clinch the presidency - will go to Kerry in November. They also note the state's role as a major source of political cash for the Kerry-Edwards campaign.

'Wake-up call' "What happened in October is over with. We had gotten a little complacent, and I think it was a wake-up call," said Elle Kurpiewski, a Rancho Mirage delegate. "We've got a lot of electoral votes at stake and you've got a party that's energized by the recall."

Davis will be among the California delegates, a far cry from when he hosted the party's Los Angeles convention four years ago and was mentioned as a possible future presidential candidate.

There is no stigma attached to California Democrats because of Davis' ouster, said state party chairman Art Torres, a former state senator.

"I think we're doing pretty well. The last poll I saw showed that Kerry-Edwards was ahead by 11 points," Torres said.

Some Republicans, however, contend that the recall and Schwarzenegger's election breathed opportunity into the Bush-Cheney ticket's chances to carry California.

Last week, Gerald L. Parsky Bush's California campaign chairman, told reporters that Schwarzenegger's success as governor could erode support for Kerry.

Republicans, who also raised a lot of money here, say they haven't written off California.

In August, Schwarzenegger will have a prime-time speaking slot at the GOP convention in New York. Vice President Dick Cheney is visiting Riverside on Tuesday to raise money for U.S. Senate candidate Bill Jones, and Bush plans to visit California in August.

"The worry that the Democrats have is that there is a very popular Republican governor who replaced a very unpopular Democratic governor. The big question is whether or not this Republican governor will continue to shake up electoral politics," said pollster Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute of California. "California's role is very important on the Democratic side. If Democrats have difficulty carrying California, they're going to have their hands full."

But Baldassare and other political experts said they expect the state to retain its Democratic leanings as the presidential campaign swings into high gear.

"On many levels, (the recall) was a personal rejection of Gray as opposed to a rejection of the Democratic Party," Democratic consultant Kam Kuwata said.

Recent polls suggest that Schwarzenegger's popularity hasn't helped Bush's standing among California voters.

A survey of 1,378 likely voters released last week by Baldassare's organization indicated that 64 percent of those polled back Schwarzenegger, a slight drop from May figures.

Bush's approval ratings, though, have been falling for several months. Last week's poll indicated that 38 percent of likely voters backed the Bush-Cheney ticket, compared to 49 percent for Kerry-Edwards.

Experts say most California voters share Schwarzenegger's support for environmental protections and social views, such as backing gay rights - issues that put Schwarzenegger at odds with the White House.

California is not the only state where voters' presidential and gubernatorial preferences part ways. New York, Massachusetts and Maryland also have Republican governors but are considered Kerry-Edwards shoo-ins.

State's cash clout California's main role in the coming months will be as a source of campaign cash that Bush and Kerry will spend in battleground states.

Through June, California donors contributed about $16.2 million to Bush, about 7 percent of his nationwide total, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan group that monitors election spending. Kerry has received $19.2 million from California donors - 13 percent of his total.

"I think that we've bounced right back," said Mary Ann Andreas, a Democratic Convention delegate from Banning who is a candidate for state Assembly. "We smell blood, and we will hit the ground running."

[goldstategop]

California is still a one-party town. Democrats control all other statewide offices and both houses of the Legislature. If it weren't for Republicans ability to block veto overrides, they would be irrelevant here.

[ambrose]

'Tis Only a Flesh Wound!