Gene Sperling, former chief economic advisor to President Clinton and John Kerrys current chief economic counsel, dramatically commented Friday that the jobs report was a disaster for American workers. Certainly the 32K was less than expected (and as we note, most likely vastly understating jobs), but the economic data this year, while lower than 2003, is still solid. Since January 91K manufacturing jobs have been created (the best string of growth in 30 years). Unemployment is at what is historically considered a low 5.5%. GDP the past 4 quarters has grown at 4.8%. Again, not the explosive growth of 2003, but very solid numbers.
Flashback to summer 1996 when President Clinton was running for re-election. GDP the prior 4 quarters grew at 4%. Unemployment was 5.5%. Manufacturing jobs created January to July that year, -8000. At that time Sperling proudly paraded the numbers to the electorate, noting that the combination of these reports warranted Clintons re-election. The numbers were worse during the first half of the year Clinton was seeking re-election, but at that time they were worthy of re-electing the incumbent. Better numbers now, after a horrid economic and stock market implosion, are not worthy of the same treatment.
It is critical to remember that President Clinton inherited a rapidly expanding economy. To wit, Q4 1992 saw GDP growth in excess of 4% as the economy came out of recession during the election. In the first four years of his presidency, that did not change much as the above numbers show. In 2001, President Bush inherited a rapidly declining economy with GDP growth from second half 2000 falling from the 7.4% level to negative in just three short quarters, the bulk of which were not on his watch. To already have economic growth such as seen in 2003 (growth rates at 20 year highs) is truly amazing given the hard crash from lofty heights and the economic shutdown following 9-11. Repeal or let the tax cuts expire because they caused a deficit? Lord help us if we did not have them to spur the economy and produce such dramatic growth rates.
Someone with an agenda can forget what they want and say what they want in order to make a point. We see it every day in this campaign. The numbers are the numbers, however. As long as you are comparing apples to apples, they dont lie or spin or skew the truth.
The disparity suggests the statistical model of the job market no longer fits the current economy.