According to this, Kerry has a 68.7% chance of winning Pennsylvania. I thought this was a 'battleground' state? 68% is a shoe-in for anybody.
I wish I could find a way to project the future. But this is based on polls as of today and the volatility of polling in the applicable state over the last few months. Thus, if the race is close, as in Virginia, but the polls have hardly moved, then a higher probability for Bush to win because no polls have shown Kerry winning and the electorate has been stable.
Trust me. PA will be closer next week.