Link shows map detailing states for and against, where support is strong and weak for Bush and Kerry. Definately worth a look.
Posted on 09/06/2004 9:02:37 AM PDT by nwrep
Few problems with this statement. One, there are no Kerry voters. There are only rabid anti-Bush supporters. They are not voting for him, but against Bush. Two, Zell wasn't speaking to Bush haters. He was speaking to "Reagan" Democrats. They are not the same as Liberal Democrats. I want to know how they polled.
Rasmussen´s ¨likely voter¨definition is really stringent. As a result he polls only the hardcore, fervent base of each side and that means there isn´t going to be much change in either direction. He´s going to miss less likely voters who turn out. Call the campaign, volunteer to register some of them in GOP neighborhoods and make sure those less likely voters who actually do vote are GOP.
Okay, but what about Miller's possible effect on undecideds and rethinking Democrats who can not be described as "Kerry voters"? Rasmussen's tightly worded observation is not particularly useful.
Yea... pretty good considering they probably did the poll at a San Francisco bath-house on 'transgendered day'.
What Zogby poll was praised?
Republicans are generally less likely to answer the phones than Democrats on weekends. With this being a holiday weekend, I suspect that effect is amplified, making Rasmussen poll skewed towards Kerry. By mid-week, we'll probably see a shift back to Bush. If this were a Parliamentary system, I'd vote "no confidence" on Rasmussen polls.
LOL I have to admit to being more supportive of those showing our President in the lead ;)
You need not wait. The answer is twofold: (1) he is not counting leaners as supporters of a particular candidate (e.g. the Time/Newsweak polls count leaners as for the candidates they are leaning to, not undecideds) and (2) he is weighting his samples slightly more heavily towards Democrats than the the Newsweak poll (I don't know if Time is weighting its sample).
The best thing about the Rasmussen poll is the Bush job approval number, which is much more meaningful than his top line results. Election after election shows that an incumbent President running for re-election will ultimately get a vote total very close to his JA rating. Rasmussen currently has the JA number at 53%, comparable with these other polls.
Link shows map detailing states for and against, where support is strong and weak for Bush and Kerry. Definately worth a look.
that's because a lot of families - which make up the republican base -are on vacation or just out of the house over the weekend. That's why I keep saying that you won't get a good picture until the end of this week. Anything else is just a bunch of junk skewed by the holiday weekend.
1) I know all these pollsters make mistakes, but I remember in 2000 gettting all excited about the "Rassmussen" and "Battleground" polls. I don't think either are very good, and any Freeper who wants to rely on them does so at their own peril.
2)We can trash Zogby all we want on here for the special sauce, but I think his Presidential polls are have been pretty accurate.
Does anyone know how his 1996 and 2000 Presidential polls compared to actual results? I thought they were pretty darn close, but I may be wrong.
For my money, I am assuming Zogby's presidential stuff is right on until proven wrong. His polls should show some movement towards Bush based on the last week.
You really shouldn't trust any polls...especially not any one poll alone without corroboration from other polls taken at the same time.
They have? I don't recall Gore doing too well in the South in 2000.
It was. Rasmussen will be releasing an article at three explaining that.
I never believed the 11 point bump...I do believe Bush is pulling ahead...and I just want him to keep doing so.
You stole the point of the article I am writing for tonight, right there. You are exactly right.and also Rasmussen's model of static weighing makes it impossible to predict landslides.
The fact is this is going to be a tight race - the "MO" is on our side at this time and now we have to keep it -
The economy is still KEY for Kerry to have any shot at winning - And this is why the GWB team has got to start putting out effective TV ads showing how the economy has turned around and how the GWB did this! -
We really have to start hitting on the success of the economy -
I think right now GWB probably has a 4 to 6pt lead - The Newsweek poll was junk (like all Newsweek polls) and the CNN/Time poll simply over-sampled Rep's while under-sampling Dem's - (we hate this when it happens the other way ....which is far more often) -
My understanding is that he does: D 39%, R 35%, and I 26%. This is second-hand, but I have seen more than one person say it.
My own attitude is that any poll that weights the samples by party affiliation is rendered unscientific and invalid for that very reason. It destroys the randomness of the sample, especially of likely voters. By contrast, Gallup doesn't weight their polls. They don't make the mistake of assuming that just because, say, 39% of registered voters are registered as Democrats, 39% of likely voters will therefore be Democrats. Sometimes you can lead a donkey (or elephant) to water, but you can't make him drink.
Awesome! Something to look forward to!
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