Posted on 09/06/2004 9:02:37 AM PDT by nwrep
Monday September 06, 2004--The Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll shows President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 47%. The Tracking Poll is updated daily by noon Eastern.
Yeah right.
Bush is leading Kerry by 1.1%. That's only a tenth lower. Yesterday's was most likely an outlier.
We'll begin seeing the "real" numbers on Friday (the first day of full polling results after Labor Day)
I guess Gallup is coming out today
Rasmussen still seems virgin tight to me and seems to be a lil left
No matter we must fight like we 10 down
Bush's numbers tanked when Scotty polled over Father's Day weekend. I figured the same would happen for Labor Day weekend.
Yesterday's lead was 1.2 points. Today's lead is 1.1 points. That means to me that Kerry's strong day two days ago was matched by a strong Bush day yesterday. Because Bush's strong day 3 days ago dropped off, he needed another strong day to keep his lead at 1.1 or 1.2 points. Also approval is up slightly so I think this is pretty good information from what I glean.
Still shows Bush with 53% favorability rating. But the tracking poll is too close for comfort. Perhaps there is something to the theory that many voters are on vacation this Labor Day Weekend so all the pollers are getting are shut-ins and kids.
Don't believe it for a sec.
You are right, if Kerry really had closed the gap, you would have seen hime perhpas pull ahead today because his sample yesterday was ridiculously favorable.
Note what else Rasmussen sez:
"While challengers typically earn a bigger Convention Bounce than incumbents, Kerry managed only a two-point bounce from both the announcement of his running mate and the Democratic Convention.
Three weeks ago, at his post-Convention peak, Kerry was ahead by nearly three percentage points in our weekly tracking update. This week, Bush is ahead by nearly three points. The race for the White House, while still very close, is now the President's to lose."
Note what else Rasmussen sez:
"While challengers typically earn a bigger Convention Bounce than incumbents, Kerry managed only a two-point bounce from both the announcement of his running mate and the Democratic Convention.
Three weeks ago, at his post-Convention peak, Kerry was ahead by nearly three percentage points in our weekly tracking update. This week, Bush is ahead by nearly three points. The race for the White House, while still very close, is now the President's to lose."
It is amazing. 6 weeks ago Zogby (was cooking his polls with the "special sauce". All the other polls were "biased". Now the President opens a little lead, and people want to take them as the gospel.
Kerry had an exceptionally good day on Saturday for polling which resulted in yesterday's poll numbers. Bush had a really good night on Friday. Tommorow I expect the race to go to being tied or even a slight Kerry advantage as Bush's good night rolls off the 3 day average. But I expect Bush will probably regain a 3-4 point lead on Wednesday as Kerry's really good Saturday rolls off the average.
i swear that this guy just does this without polling a person just randomly inserting numbers
all the other polls have Bush ahead by double digits
exactly, and also Rasmussen's model of static weighing makes it impossible to predict landslides.
A demoralized Democratic/Republican base does not turn out, and skews the %. Just look at 1994. Rasmussen's model would have predicted no change in 1994.
The truth is probably somewhere between the Time/Newsweek polls and the Rasmussen poll.
Would love to see SurveyUSA and Gallup results though. Anyone know when the Gallup poll will be released?
I'm not taking anything as gospel. I'm just looking for trends.
I'm pretty sure Rasmussen uses a statically weighted model. e.g., the D/R/I percentages are always fixed... see my earlier post... he would/could not have predicted 1994 or 1984 blowouts, and he would've most likely messed up with Perot in 1992 as well.
Look, the pollsters and the media will keep these results close until about two weeks before the election, when 'suddenly, out of nowhere' there will be a shift toward President Bush. They'll need to cover their collective asses for the end result, which will be a Bush rout.
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