Posted on 09/06/2004 9:02:37 AM PDT by nwrep
I thought Zogby's final presidential poll in 2000 showed a dead heat, with a very slight edge to Gore nationally. That's how the election turned out. Gore barely won the popular vote in a dead heat, with GW winning the electoral college. Correct me if I am wrong on that.
All I remember is reading on Freep in the 30 days before the 2000 election that we didn't have to worry, since the Rassmussen and Battleground polls (which showed GW with a decent lead) were more accurate than Zogby.
It just didn't turn out to be the case. People can nitpick Zogby about state by state situations or congressional campaigns, but I think his overall take on the Presidential stuff is accurate.
IMHO people hold it against Zogby polls because of his politics. But if I am running GW's campaign, I am watching Zogby more than I am looking at Rasmussen.
Goody, the mindreading raygun works! By the way, is my memory fuzzy or weren't there several daily tracking polls in 2000?
The whole Ramussen "tracking survey" is an outlier. I don't buy it for a minute. If it was true, you wouldn't be seeing Kerry act with such desperation. Every real world indication tells us Bush is on the boards up by double digits.
G.W.'s DUI came out those final few days.
The previous polls didn't factor in that particular "October surprise".
That Bush leads at all with those percentages is quite astounding. Rasmussen has become way too timid since 2000.
We have no life.
Seriously, I'm guessing a lot of us are engineers/programmers and we love numbers even if it's from a bad source.
I tell you NONE of this is true. This is a GIGO poll. If the race were tied, Kerry would NOT be shaking up his campaign staff! Ramussen is just about the most unreliable pollster I've ever seen. He makes Zogby's "special sauce" method look attractive.
POA POLL AKA Rasmussen Reports last 2000 poll
Bush 49%
Gore 40%
(YEA RIGHT)
and what do independents think?
I'm not! LOL
I find a few statements in here interesting though. For instance, I'd like to hear what FDR/JFK/REAGAN/9-11 Democrats thought of Zell's speech. Instead we were given what Liberals thought of it, and I could have predicted that assessment.
Tell the truth I'm not too certain how to take any of the polls coming out during Labor Day weekend. I would think most people would be on vacation.
Rasmussen has really been holding back since their 2000 debacle, I dont consider their numbers accurate..
ROFL. Maybe Ramussen's garbage is a Rove plant designed to keep the DU Dummies dreaming Kerry's on the verge of a comeback. I'm sure now its all part of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy's bid to make it look like its STILL a horse race! :)
Yes, but not this early with one exception. In addition to the Rasmussen tracking poll, in 2000 during the conventions Battleground (Goeas and Lake) had tracking polls.
Later, Zogby, Gallup and one other that is escaping my memory joined in, but most of those started in October.
Where is the gallup poll?
What are they are hiding?
Did Rasumussen really have Bush up 49-40 on his last poll? I don't think GW's DUI really brought him down from a 9pt lead. Besides, if that was a factor, give Zogby credit for seeing it (or at least factoring it into his final poll)
Didn't Zogby also hit the 1996 Presidential race dead on as well?
Zogby's September 2nd poll has GW 46%, Kerry 44%. Personally, I think that is right on.
This thing is going to be a horse-race until the end. Hopefully GW can keep the momentum.
Rasmussen is right and everyone else is wrong, or Rasmussen is wrong and everyone else is right.
Rasmussen's poll has not changed significantly for months. He has had Kerry with a slight, within-the-margin-of-error lead for some time. Now he has them even again.
He uses likely voters, so there's no telling his LV formula and how he derives it from his registered voters numbers.
Last election Rasmussen failed on election day, but there's good reason to believe that he was accurate right up to the time when the alcohol issue broke against Pres. Bush. Perhaps His automated polling simply wasn't able to pick up on nuances in those last few days before the voting and he ended up wrong.
My sense of the interviews I've seen him in is that he leans in a republican direction.
He might be attempting to keep the faithful from going overboard in enthusiasm. Better they think it's close and that they need to keep waging war.
With regards to Bush, he and his brother consider him to be a threat to Arabs, so he'll do whatever it takes to zap the President.
Last POA POLL AKA Rasmussen Reports last 2000 poll
Bush 49%
Gore 40%
(YEA RIGHT)
Last Zogby poll
Gore 48%
Bush 46%
Gallup
Bush48%
Gore46%
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