Posted on 09/06/2004 9:02:37 AM PDT by nwrep
Rasmussen has really been holding back since their 2000 debacle, I dont consider their numbers accurate..
Dick Morris, on Fox, during the Republican Convention, said that he won't believe any poll numbers except Rassmussen. He believes them to be the most accurate. Those are his words spoken to Bill O’Riley.
Everyone listen here, the polls were invented by the media to control the horse race. Sometimes they are right, sometimes wrong, never accurate. So why give them any credence?
While I don't take much stock in Rass polls - So I'll agree with you there - The notion that GWB is up by double digits is simply pie in the sky thinking -
Both the Newsweek and CNN/Time poll have been shown to be skewed (Newsweek polls are always junk...they are not meant for accuracy but for stories) -
As for the notion that "look how the Kerry team is acting" thus saying they must be down by double-digits.....Here I think you are just giving the Kerry team way to much credit -
They are in panic mode simply because they are DOWN - (Down by 3pts, 5pts, 7pts or 11pts) - Kerry himself is not a strong individual - The Kerry Team really started to believe they had this thing wrapped up several weeks ago....and now that polls are showing this back to a tight race with GWB in the lead.....they are emotionally upset -
However, that does not mean GWB is up by 11pts - He simply is not -
Lets wait until IBD and Gallup come out to see where this race actually stands - If they show GWB up by 10pts...I'll say you were right -
But my best guess is GWB is currently up by 5pts -
No way. Bush is probably not ahead by double digits, but he is ahead by enough that the RATs are very, very scared. My guess is about six points. A solid lead at this stage, but still not an "in the bag" lead yet.
dick morris also said that rasmussen will have W up by 6-8%..
Toe sucking is good for nothing
Lets say 2 pollsters are biased and want to influence the election with a 3rd pollster independent and actually getting a very accurate poll.
Lets look at how each can influence the election by looking at how they trend.
................ Dem----Ind----Rep
Sept week 1 Bush +5 Tie Kerry +1
Sept week 2 Bush +5 Bush+1 Tie
Sept week 3 Bush +3 Tie Kerry +1
Sept week 4 Bush +2 Tie Kerry +1
Oct week 1 Tie Tie Tie
Oct week 2 Tie Bush+1 Tie
Oct week 3 Kerry+3 Bush +2 Bush +2
Oct week 4 Kerry+4 Bush +2 Bush +4
Pre elctnight Kerry+2 Bush +3 Bush +3
All of these polls most likely will fall within the margin of error but based on who you believe you see a trend toward one candidate. The Dem is getting you to believe his candidate is the hottest. The Republican is getting you to believe his candidate is the hottest and the Independent is just simply trying to put forth the best polling data he can without leading the public with a biased spin. It DOES happen all the time and the results all are within the margin of error.
Zogby and Gallup were within the margin of error. The margin of error is a huge swing either way when a tight race is taking place.
true, but POA /rasmssen wasn't
That's about my read of the polls, adjusted for a realistic GOP/Dem sample. It's a nice place to be in, considering that we entered the Democratic convention in a dead heat and were just hoping to be within striking distance come the Republican convention.
The obvious thing to point out is that if Dick Morris says that Rasmussen is the most accurate, then Rasmussen is the most inaccurate...
Today, at 3:00 p.m. Eastern, we will provide commentary and analysis as to why our polls are currently showing a different result from the widely reported Time and Newsweek polls. At that time, we will also provide an update on who Americans think is winning the War on Terror along with other perspectives on the situation in Iraq.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
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I agree with you that GWB is probably up around 5pts at this time - (Not double digits at all) -
Though, I will say I think TEAM KERRY is simply freaking out a little....because they really believed this race was OVER....they thought it would be them that would start to pull ahead....and GWB would only be able to sit back and watch -
They thought this was going to be 1992 all over again - That Kerry would get a small lead and from that point on his lead would only grow - (just as when Clinton moved ahead of Bush Sr...he never looked back) -
With that said, this race is still a very close race - The State polling shows the EV up for grabs -
Good point. The Time and Newsweek polls were good news but I take them with a grain of salt. I completely mistrust Rasmussen, his 2000 polling was terrible and I think his methodolgy stinks. He's barely more credible than a poll at Vote.com.
All that said, I do have a certain degree of confidence in Gallup, they're the gold standard in opinion polling and I'm eager to see what their latest polls indicate.
JUNK NATIONAL POLLS are:
Newsweek
Zogby
Rasmussen.
-----
Relaible National pollsters are:
Gallup
NBC/WSJ
ABC/WP
Harris
Fox
Rasmussen was dead wrong in 2000 yet he was the MOST accurate in the 2002 midterms.
Zogby was VERY accurate in 2000. I believe he had Gore up .5% over Bush which is about what the national totals suggested. Interesting because he theorized Bush could win the popular vote while losing the electoral college vote. Close analysis just went the other way.
When margins of errors are +-3-5% that really is a flip of the coin. If a pollster says Kerry will win by 2% then they are accurate if Kerry loses by 1 or wins by 5. The chance ANY politician hits 54% nationally is very unlikely. That would represent an 8 point lead. Playing it safe by saying your guy is up 3 or 4 points is within the realm of the margin of error. Rasmussen KNOWS if he keeps it close for either guy he will be within the margin of error.
It's like saying if you flip a coin 1000 times it will come up heads 975 times and tails 1025 times...with a margin of error of +-5%. This means that the heads could be 926-1024 and still be a good prediction according to his "poll".
KQQL, Gallup polls generally come out on Wednesday or Thursday, and are not every week. I would expect to see one by Thursday of this week.
But they had a poll out Sunday after Dem Convention, where is one for the GOP?
In which state was this poll taken--California or Mass?
Seen the curve of a standard deviation? The margin of error isn't completely flat. If a correctly done poll shows Kerry leading by 2, then it's far more likely that the actual results will be Kerry leading by 1, 2, or 3 than to be at either extreme of the margin of error.
It's been a long time since statistics 101, though...
I think the real point is that if you take the polls that come out, adjust for registered vs. likely voters, and adjust for party oversampling, the poll results are reasonably consistent with each other. In this case, those results point toward a 5-6 point Bush lead at this point.
That also means that next week, when the polls start to coalesce around a 5-6 point Bush lead, some pundits are going to claim a trend toward Kerry. But that won't be the case.
The problem with most of the polls isn't explicit gamesmanship with the numbers, it's sloppiness. They poll self-reported registered voters instead of likely voters, or make a bunch of phone calls assuming that there won't be any oversampling by party.
If you work around the sloppiness, you start getting toward the truth.
The other thing is to watch the campaigns. The campaigns do their own polling, and they absolutely cannot afford to have any inaccurate results. If you're Kerry's pollster reporting results so the campaign can decide whether to dump more resources into Missouri, you *have* to know exactly how your candidate stands. No oversampling, no registered voter surveys, you need to do your best job to get at the truth.
For that reason, the campaign's own polls are by far the most accurate. Now those aren't shared with us, but the results of those polls affect actions. When you hear that Kerry's pulled ads out of certain states, that means his polls in those states say "forget it, not worth the resources".
When Kerry shakes up his campaign team, then he most certainly is not only 1 point down in the polls. When Bush makes big pushes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, that means those Gore states are seriously in play.
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