Stay safe !
Posted on 09/08/2004 5:07:43 PM PDT by K1avg
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN INTENSIFIES FURTHER WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD... INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO PEDERNALES.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
AT 8 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO AND 640 MILES...1030 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
IVAN HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... BUT IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN WILL CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.
IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...235 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. BONAIRE REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH A FEW HOURS AGO.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 8 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N... 68.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.
FORECASTER BEVEN
And its still going over warm water. Ivan could very well be a Category 5 when it hits Cuba, and stay a Cat 4 over the Gulf, where it may intensify more. Remember Charley? We're in for a bad one, fellow Floridians.
Or maybe I'm just a hopeless pessimist. Enjoy the rest of your evening...
BTW, does anyone know where they publish Dvorak numbers on the storm?
My wife has called the last two almost exactly....She had Charley going just to the north of Port Charlotte and also had Frances going into Daytona Beach a week before anyone would say that Frances was going near the US coast...
She says that this one will hit the panhandle-mobile areas....I hope it hits cuba and goes out to sea.....
Good Luck!! We dont get those here in Baghdad :)
go to this site:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
look under GOES Storm Floater 2
This Free Republic is a great site. See you are new. Do not be a stranger.
Thanks!!
Don't worry, I comment on a lot of topics :)
It is all I have to do some nights here in the Bagh....
Ping!
Looks like Key West is going to get clobbered. Highest point of land there is 13 ft.
A huricane running up the west coast of FL as is projected is almost a worse case scenario.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/082203W5.gif
Hope your wife is wrong and this one fizzles!
My dad is disabled and lives along the Ms Gulf Coast...I'm really worried about this one.
BTW, Mike......Thanks for being there.
Oh, and thank your wife too!
Stay safe !
Hey, Mike -
Stay safe and thank you for protecting us!
It's not likely headed out to sea unless the global high pressure patterns turn completely around. The ridge that's holding Ivan's path to the south right now will have eroded away by the time it reaches Cuba, and then the high-pressure system headed in from the West should push it to a northerly path, straight towards the east Panhandle - and me.
As far as the satellite image, it shows the cloud patterns used to calculate the T-number, but it doesn't show it anywhere on the image. Odd, yes. Thanks anyway, though, and keep fighting the good fight over in Iraq!
No you are not a pessimist...A wise man sees trouble down the road and seeks to avoid it...
The NHC forecast track is pure fantasy.
This thing shows no signs of turning north yet.
"Like a rock" comes to mind!
Holy crap.
It has shot up a lot in just a couple hours.
Sq: As far as the TX/LA coast - I think that's a bit too far west, as I told Mike. The high pressure system heading in from the west should be just enough to push Ivan on a path similar to Charley's - I doubt we'll see a landfall west of Tallahassee.
PV77: As far as Key West goes, they're almost certain to get some hurricane-force winds. Jeb, I'm sure will order evacuations starting fairly soon, since the only way out of Key West is, if I remember correctly, a four-lane bridge. It wouldn't be much fun trying to get out of there...
well I would be looking at finding a way to get him out of the way...we will see though.....
Hopefully it will hit something other than Florida or the US...
The current track has it hitting Havana. Cuba's a big road-bump, and should take some energy out of it. The Cubans are not going to be too happy. I doubt the regular folk have well-contructed housing. Castro will stay dry.
Shot up? I thought it was 940 this afternoon.
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