Wanted: Muslim NASCAR Granny

U.S. election coverage often bogs down into a jumble of labels — Limousine Liberals, Discerning Democrats, Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, Texans for Truth, Soccer Moms (now called Security Moms), Battleground States, Swing States, States In Play.

But there are some key demographic segments of American society which will go a long way to deciding whether U.S. President George W. Bush wins a second term Nov. 2 or is unseated by Democratic challenger John Kerry.

NASCAR is the country's fastest-growing sport and has surpassed the now-dormant National Hockey League in popularity here.

Linda Fowler, a political scientist at Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H., says the appeal of stock car racing in New Hampshire shows it is not just a southern phenomenon. The demographic profile of those who follow NASCAR shows why they are in the Bush camp.

"These are white, blue-collar males, who ought to vote Democrat but have been increasingly trending Republican," Fowler said.

Wanted: Muslim NASCAR granny
Who's who of key U.S. voter groups

Blocs seen as vital in squeaker race

TIM HARPER
WASHINGTON BUREAU

WASHINGTON—Red States. Blue States. White Noise?

U.S. election coverage often bogs down into a jumble of labels — Limousine Liberals, Discerning Democrats, Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, Texans for Truth, Soccer Moms (now called Security Moms), Battleground States, Swing States, States In Play.

But there are some key demographic segments of American society which will go a long way to deciding whether U.S. President George W. Bush wins a second term Nov. 2 or is unseated by Democratic challenger John Kerry.

Here's a look at eight of them, why they're important and how they're leaning:

NASCAR Dads (Advantage: Overwhelmingly Bush)

NASCAR is the country's fastest-growing sport and has surpassed the now-dormant National Hockey League in popularity here.

Linda Fowler, a political scientist at Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H., says the appeal of stock car racing in New Hampshire shows it is not just a southern phenomenon. The demographic profile of those who follow NASCAR shows why they are in the Bush camp.

"These are white, blue-collar males, who ought to vote Democrat but have been increasingly trending Republican," Fowler said.

"They tend to see Democrats as soft on terror and defence and deferential to the French. They like to see a muscular use of American military power."

This group starting deserting the Democrats under Jimmy Carter, returned under Bill Clinton, then fled during 2000 when they saw Al Gore as a policy wonk.

"They like Bush because he's seen as a regular guy, a manly man who clears the brush in Texas," she said. "That Bush rhetoric out of the wild west movies that tends to give Canadians palpitations appeals to these guys."

Kerry was never going to win this vote, but tossed it away with his strong push to extend the assault weapons ban this week and his rather patrician nod to the track when he said, "Who among us doesn't love NASCAR?" The Granny Vote (Even)

Extremely bad news for Kerry because, according to Michigan pollster Ed Sarpolus who coined the phrase, women who are 60 and older had solidly backed Democrats since 1992.

In Michigan, a key battleground state, Sarpolus's firm EPIC/MRA found that demographic group the most undecided and with the softest support. That's because Kerry is not campaigning on traditional Democratic issues like Medicare and Social Security and "can't go more than 10 minutes without talking about Iraq," he said.

More and more grannies are listening to the Bush message on terrorism and homeland security because they are worried about the safety of their children and grandchildren.

They also like the Stepford Wife, perfectly-coiffed calm of Laura Bush over the tousle-haired bluntness of Teresa Heinz Kerry. The Heartland (Advantage: Bush, but still fluid)

Rural America is returning to Bush after his traditional lead there dissipated. Rural voters are generally less educated and poorer than urban voters and are more conservative and more religious. Bush's positions on abortion, same-sex marriage and faith-based initiatives play well here, even if the war in Iraq does not. Bush's plain-spoken, folksy style and the warm-up songs at rallies like "Country Boy" and "Ring of Fire", all play to the heartland.

A poll of more than 500 rural voters in 17 swing states released by the Center for Rural Strategies in Whitesburg, Ky., gives 55 per cent of committed support to Bush, 42 per cent to Kerry.

Dee Davis, president of the centre says neither party has any solution to rural poverty so the judgment defaults to cultural issues. But the war in Iraq is an important wild card because almost 48 per cent of the more than 1,000 U.S. casualties are from rural areas.

"A disproportionate number of our kids and middle-aged residents are being shot over there," he said. "And I don't know how you win this thing."

The Beer and Babes Vote (Advantage: Kerry)

The 18-29 voting bloc, so named for one of the recruiting pitches which is getting them to political parties, have not been this active in a campaign since the anti-Vietnam War-era election of 1972, according to a study released yesterday by the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Voter registration is way up among the age group in this bloc of 40.6 million voters and could make a difference in swing states such as New Mexico and Wisconsin.

Half ofthose under 30 said they had a conversation about the election in the past day, double the percentage of 2000, and opposition to the Iraq war fuels their involvement.

The Sunday Worshippers (Advantage: Overwhelmingly Bush)

According to pollster Anna Greenberg, a former public policy professor at Harvard University, religion has become one of the more reliable barometers of opinion in U.S. politics. She found in 2000 that 62 per cent of those who attended church each Sunday voted for Bush and 62 per cent of those who never go to church backed Gore.

Nothing has changed.

A major study by Time magazine in June found those who consider themselves "very religious" chose Bush over Kerry by 59 per cent to 33 per cent, while those who are "not religious" favoured Kerry over Bush 69 per cent to 22 per cent.

The bad news for Kerry is that the U.S. is the most religious developed country in the world. He is bidding to become the first Catholic president in four decades, but a poll by Zogby International this week shows Catholics prefer Bush.

Arab-Americans (Advantage: Overwhelmingly Kerry)

Bush carried this constituency in 2000, winning 47 per cent of those votes. This time, the situation is flipped and Arab-Americans are set to play a major role in November in three swing states: Pennsylvania, Florida and, most notably, Michigan.

Polling by John Zogby of Zogby International is, however, not all good for Kerry, even though he finds Arab-Americans back Kerry nationally by a margin of 47 per cent to 32 per cent. In August, Kerry had 51 per cent to 24 per cent to Bush.

"Arab-Americans have made a statement about this presidency, but John Kerry has not given Arab-Americans any compelling reason to vote for him ," Zogby said.

Data on Muslims in this country show Bush has only single digit support (6 per cent), compared to 60 per cent for Kerry. Multimillionaire movie and rock stars (Advantage: Overwhelmingly Kerry)

Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band, Pearl Jam, R.E.M., the Dave Matthews Band, John Mellencamp, the Dixie Chicks, Bonnie Raitt, Jackson Browne and a host of others are touring the country in support of Kerry and will come together Oct. 11 in Washington for a giant concert. Hollywood is solidly Democratic blue.

This gives Bush the opportunity to tell voters that he represents the heartland, Kerry the elite.

Multimillionaire sports moguls (Advantage: Overwhelmingly Bush)

Some 13 current and former major league baseball owners have raised more than $2 million for the campaign of Bush, former part owner of the Texas Rangers.

Kerry speaks often of his beloved Boston Red Sox and New England Patriots but Kerry lost an important demographic in football-mad swing state Wisconsin when he referred to the home of the Green Bay Packers as "Lambert Field" instead of "Lambeau Field." He hurt himself in Michigan when he paid tribute to the Buckeyes (of neighbouring and hated Ohio State University) forgetting he was in the state of the Wolverines.

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