Posted on 09/26/2004 1:18:09 PM PDT by anotherview
Sep. 26, 2004 20:58 | Updated Sep. 26, 2004 21:08
Analysis: Striking outside the ball park
By ARIEH O'SULLIVAN
The assassination of a key Hamas operative in a foreign capital will likely lead to Hamas carrying through with its threat to change its policy and strike at Israeli and Jewish targets around the world.
Until now, the staunchly disciplined Hamas organization, while responsible for scores of suicide bombings and attacks, has limited its strikes to Israel and the territories.
Analysts believe that the Hamas Pandora's box is not empty and they do have the network and capability of launching deadly terrorist attacks abroad.
That said, analysts believe this was the risk worth taking at this present geopolitical moment. The tactical benefits of hitting Izz El-Deen Al-Sheik Khalil are marginal. But the psychological and strategic benefits are great.
In keeping with tradition, Israel will never directly acknowledges that it had a hand in the assassination of the Hamas figure in Damascus Sunday.
Nevertheless, the strike came after repeated finger pointing and warnings by Israel that it would widen its war on terrorists and that no place was immune. Perhaps Israel's Mossad was helped by as sub-contractor? Perhaps they were even Syrian?
The point is, Bashir Assad was caught red handed. After declaring that the Hamas leadership had all cleared out of town, one of them found himself blown to bits right there in the capital.
Hamas was quick to blame Israel and that too further humiliated Assad by exposing that Israel or its agents could strike in the heart of his country with impunity. Leaders here know that Assad's options are limited. He would never seek a frontal conflict with a much mightier Israel. With the Americans breathing down his neck to remove his troops from Lebanon, retaliating at Israel through its proxy Hizbullah also seems remote.
"Syria is weak," said Prof. Eyal Zisser of Tel Aviv University's Dayan Center. "It is very humiliating for Syria, but they are not going to open a war against Israel over this. They will be careful, very careful."
The question could be that perhaps this is the time for Assad to do a rethink? Perhaps consider that harboring Palestinian terrorists is not the best interest for Syria?
"(Assad) needs to think what he will get in return and for the moment the pressure is not enough for this move," Zisser said.
Lt.-Col. (res.) Moshe Marzuk, a former head of the Lebanon and Palestinian desk in IDF Intelligence, believes Hamas will carry through with its threat to start targeting Jewish and Israeli targets abroad.
"They have operational capabilities. They are organized. Their guys who raise money and get weapons are military operatives and they can transport people and really deliver a blow. That is not the problem," said Marzuk, a researchers at the International Policy Institute for Counter Terrorism.
"The problem is that Hamas needs to have a launching pad. It will be very difficult for them to operate in other countries if Israel adopts this policy of accountability."
The message Israel delivered to Damascus Sunday is that Israel is willing to go up a notch in its war on terror.
The price is worth it, politically. It puts the Syrians before a dilemma because they never paid the price. Israel showed that it is capable of staging this assassination inside Syria.
Marzuk added that taking out Khalil was not a significant tactical blow to Hamas. The major impact of the strike was its political message to the Syrian capital that they are vulnerable to Israeli actions and that if nothing is done the stakes will get higher.
GO ISRAEL!!!
This is GREAT! In the heart of Syria!
NO safe haven for terrorists.
(getting the popcorn, and waiting for Annan to condemn the killing of a terrorist serial murderer)
Hasta la Vista, Baby!
D'OH!
As I have said before... Thank GOD , NOT allah, that Israel has stones.
Didn't Vladimir Putin promise that he would strike at terrorists worldwide as well?
Please don't flame, as only read the FReepers' replies, and not the original article.
Other articles do in fact confirm that Israel has claimed responsibility for the death.
There. I've posted my retraction. Can I go party with Dan Rather now?
Kill all those Animals.
"likely lead to Hamas carrying through with its threat to change its policy and strike at Israeli and Jewish targets around the world."
With Hezbollah assisting Hamas and the other Islamofascist organizations, this will no doubt be true, like we have already seen in Argentina.
If this occurs on Bush's watch, I should have no doubt that his will lead to the demise of the leadership in Damascus, Tehran, and Ramallah.
This is sort of like the Brits bombing Berlin early in the war, the bombings weren't effective but the Germans changed
their strategy of attacking air defence to attacking cities
and lost the battle. Yes, Hamas can strike Israelis in other parts of the world but eventually citizens of another country are going to die. Soon the world will ALL be against them.
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