Posted on 09/26/2004 1:54:16 PM PDT by JLS
Bill First 5/2 John McCain 7/2 Rudolph Guiliani 7/2 George Pataki 9/2 Chuck Hagel 6 Mitt Romney 6 Bill Owens 8 Tom Ridge 8 George Allen 12 Norm Coleman 12 Lindsey Graham 14 Sam Brownback 14 Arnold Schwarzenegger 66 Dick Cheney 66 Jeb Bush 66 Laura Bush 100
It depends partly on what order the primaries are held in. Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire go first. I could see Giuliani sweeping both, and from that point momentum might carry him through the rest of the schedule. He would be the tough on crime (with a track record in NYC) and anti-terror candidate (9/11), and if he promised to appoint strict constructionist judges that might pacify the pro-life crowd, especially given that's really about all the president can do on the issue.
Well, he could run without incident. He'd be in his 6th year as Governor (same with W). He's also been presiding over MN's realignment to the GOP (or rather, return to its original pre-Humphreyan GOP roots), also a positive for him. He'll also be a break from the GOP South & West dominance, which means he is guaranteed to hold those areas in a general contest while building support on those trickier upper midwest (Rust Belt) states. MN certainly now has an embarrassment of GOP riches all the way down to the lowest levels (far more so even than down here in my own state of TN, which has almost absent GOP leadership - and I include Frist in that assessment, he's been a decided disappointment as Majority Leader), and it's time to mine it for national leaders.
I love Santorum as senator but don't think he's necessarily presidential BUT -----------
If a Santorum candidacy put Pennsylvania (and Ohio) in our column, that's a big chunk of battleground that we've already won. And assuming Hillary! is the Dem nominee, that's a big chunk of the rest of the country locked up too.
Somebody/Rice. I am not trying to be funny, get some seasoned politico with a lot of gravitas/mass/whatever the catchword is as the Presidential candidate, team him up with Rice. Landslide victory for both, just as "only Nixon could go to China" the first black VP the first woman VP must be a Republican. Once that hurdle is passed everyone will wonder 'What was all the fuss about'? Eight years as VP is enough experience and gives her enough stature to run as the Presidental candidate in 2016. By the same logic the first black President and the firs woman President will be a Republican. I don't at all underestimate the animus of the Socialists and their fellow travellers to Repbulican ideas and integry but I do believe that there will be a large number of women Democrats and black Democrats who would vote for a ticket with her as VP.
No, it isn't. By 2008, assuming he's reelected, Pawlenty will have been governor of MN for six years. In 2000, GWB had been governor of Texas for six years.
I disagree entirely. I think Rudy's the only pro-abort who CAN win a GOP primary. Lots of people are willing to give him a pass on the social issues if he'll say, "I'll appoint good SC justices" because he's Rudy. He's extremely popular.
But I think a Rudy candidacy is a horrible idea and would lead to a third party on the Right.
It’s way too soon to tell but I would bet on George Allen right now with Bill Frist a close second.
You can't vote for Frist, you can only vote for "Bill First".
You can't BET ON Frist, I mean.
Romney is a terrific guy. He is conservative, has a good record and is good on the stump. People see him and they like him. He has that "W"esque likeability that makes the difference in close races. The reason that Romney is not going to get the GOP nomination is that he is LDS, a Mormon. Most folks wouldn't care but there is still a large enough segment of the American electorate that is bigoted and it would cost him the election. The demographic that will hurt him is southern Christians. The Democrats hate all christians with equal fervors but the people who will cause Romney fits are in his own party and vote heaviliy in the Southern primaries. We saw similar bigotry with Bobby Jundahl (racial not religoius.) By all rights he should have won that race. It was the election day misgivings of some voters about voting for a brown-skinned governor with a funny name (despite his Christian credentials) that did him in. In 2000 Gore probably imagined that he was getting a bonus with the Jewish vote by choosing Lieberman but what he didn't calculate was the anti-Semitic vote. It is a very small fringe of people but it is particularly strong in the African American population (Think Nation of Islam, Jesse Jackson's hymie-town slurs). Did it cost him 300 votes in Florida???
America will only elect a mainstream protestant or a Catholic to the top spot. Many evangelical protestant churches (particularly in the key southern states needed for a GOP win) openly condemn the Mormons as a cult, their teachings as false prophecy and their leaders as evil. This poses a huge problem for a Romney presidential bid. It would be hard to rally the conservative congretations to go out on Tuesday and vote for a Mormon president when Monday night's Bible Study was on the evils of Mormonism. I think the only way Mitt could make it would be as a VP first so that Americans would know him well enough to overcome the bigotry. Some will argue that his election to the MA Governorship proves that he can overcome religious stereotypes, but MA is a poor sample for the rest of the country. Just being a Republican who can get elected in MA is a religious miracle.
Frist also has some issues that he'd get crucified on in a national election, too (it was why I ended up voting for his opponent, now-Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, in the 1994 GOP primary).
And I disagree. I think that if Giuliani were to handle his campaign correctly, many social conservatives would hold their noses and vote for him, just to keep Hillary! out of the White House. Do not underestimate the revulsion Republicans of every faction hold for this woman. And while hatred alone is not enough to win an election (as John Kerry is finding out) it can help hold people together when there is a positive alternative available.
The problem with Giulliani is that HE CAN win the primary. After which, the conervative right puts its money back in its pocket and stays home on election day. Not only could Giulliani lsoe the Presidency but he could cost the GOP the Congress.
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Rudy is the only one with a chance to beat Hillary. Any of the others would lose to her.
Jeb won't be president. It's a shame - he is a good guy but too many Bushes creep people out.
Of course,they can't keep the Kennedys from coming. It's the old double standard. A democratic legacy is a bright shiny example of moving towards the future. A conservative legacy raises 'concerns.'
Liberals are terminally concerned people, it seems.
Number of elective offices held 0.
Number of elections won 0 for 3.
Do we really know that Powell is not a candidate? He's certaninly not my candidate but I'm afraid he is the cinch nominee if he has changed his mind and decided to run.
"Romney..."
Who shall we pick for his running mate, LJ? Is there an up and coming young, tough Repub out there? Tancredo? Or is he a "one issue" guy?
But there are comparatively few conservative Christians in Massachusetts, so winning a statewide election there is not a test of this proposition.
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