I agree we need to win 2004, first, but I happened to find these odds today.
This is not a list someone compiled, this is a list of odds YOU CAN BET ON. So if someone want to take a long shot and put $100 down that the constistution will be ammended and Arnold will win the nomination, that is perfectly within their rights.
My own view of this list is this:
1. First remove all the people who have not won statewide office except Rudy because NYC is as big as a medium sized state. That eliminates L.Bush and Cheney plus Rice who is not on the list and Powell for that matter.
2. Second remove people who are too old or have health concerns or are not eligible. That eliminates McCain, Chenney, Arnold and maybe some others on that list. [Remember the age that matters is the persons age in 2008.]
3. Third remove people from small states. Winning the Senate election in Kansas does not prepare you for a presidential race. That eliminates Hagel, Brownback and others.
4. Fourth eliminate US Senators if the GOP wants to win in 2008. Senator rarely win the presidency. That eliminates Frist, Graham, Brownback etc.
That pares the list way down and maybe it is between Ruby, Pataki, Romney and Jeb? Of course some other names will arise.
I suspect the 100:1 shot on Schwarzenegger reflects the perceived likelihood of a Constitutional amendment before 2008. If it weren't for his Constitutional disability, Schwarzenegger would almost certainly be at the top of the pack, along with Giuliani etc.