Posted on 10/02/2004 7:28:16 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Cynthia Moore — single mother, moderate Democrat — is the living embodiment of one of Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites)'s biggest challenges in the presidential race. There are things she doesn't like about President Bush (news - web sites), she says, but the president will get her vote on Nov. 2 because she thinks he'll do a better job of protecting her two daughters.
"Terrorism is something that scares me," says Moore, 34, of Watkins Glen, N.Y. "I like the security of knowing that if I was to get on a plane with my little girls, we would be a lot safer." Kerry's strong performance in the first presidential debate did him no good with Moore — her mind made up, she didn't even watch.
Moore is just one face behind polling numbers showing that Bush has made big strides among female voters in recent weeks. The Pew Research Center, for example, showed Bush and Kerry running about even among women in a poll taken Sept. 22-26, before the first of three presidential debates, compared with a 10-point advantage for Kerry in August.
Both campaigns are polling furiously this weekend to see how the first debate — in which terrorism and the war in Iraq (news - web sites) were front and center — might have changed things.
Democracy Corps, a group led by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and strategist James Carville, said its survey of 1,318 likely voters who watched the debate showed that Kerry's favorable ratings rose by 15 points among college-educated women and 11 points among older women, two groups that had moved away from him since the Republican convention.
All sides agree that Kerry's election prospects are doomed if he doesn't regain ground with female voters, who tend to make up their minds later than men.
"It's just simply this: In order for Kerry to win, he's got to carry women," says Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew center.
Democratic pollster Doug Schoen, not affiliated with any campaign, sets the bar even higher: "If he doesn't win women by about 10 points, he will not be elected president."
Recent presidential elections have displayed a "gender gap" in which women, who make up about 52 percent of the electorate, lean more Democratic than do men. In 1996, President Clinton (news - web sites) beat Bob Dole by 16 points among women and broke even among men as he easily won re-election. In the neck-and-neck 2000 vote, Al Gore (news - web sites) had an 11-point advantage over Bush among female voters while men favored Bush by about the same margin.
This time, the gender gap still exists, but the whole scale seems to have shifted in Bush's favor in recent weeks, in part simply because Kerry did more poorly across the board. An AP-Ipsos poll taken Sept. 20-22, for example, showed men favoring Bush by a 57-40 margin while women were about evenly split.
But the numbers also have given rise to speculation about a new bloc of voters known as "security moms," loosely defined as white, married women with children whose leanings in the race are tied to their concern about the impact of terrorism on their families.
Are these akin to the sought-after "soccer moms" of 1996, whose support for Democrats helped secure a second term for Clinton?
"I hate the cutesey terms, but to a great extent that's exactly what they are," says Republican pollster Ed Goeas. "You have these security moms who are concerned about the war on terror, the war on Iraq and see George W. Bush as the answer."
Evidence of women's concern about terrorism is sprinkled throughout recent polling data, although men also attach substantial importance to the issue.
Pew, for example, found that 79 percent of women rated concern about terrorism as a top priority, compared with 72 percent of men. The center also found that women showed far greater interest than men in last month's siege at a school in Beslan, Russia, in which more than 330 people were killed, nearly half of them children.
Kohut says women have been feeling "cross pressured" in the current campaign — thinking Bush would do a better job than Kerry on terrorism but favoring Kerry on the economy and health care. Men split similarly, but by margins more favorable to Bush.
The fact that women's support for Kerry has bounced around in recent polls shows there's still time for him to reclaim lost ground, says Kohut. Women account for up to two-thirds of undecided voters, according to Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.
And there are skeptics who think the whole notion of "security moms" is overblown. Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg says married white women tend to be Republicans to begin with rather than swing voters. Kerry's real problem, she says, is that he's been "underperforming" among other, Democratic-leaning women who haven't been hearing much about the issues that matter to them most, such as health care and the economy.
"The good news for Kerry is that these are the first people to come back," says Greenberg, adding that the debates give Kerry a good chance to reach these women with an unfiltered message.
U.S. Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) (L) and his wife Teresa Heinz-Kerry arrive for a campaign fund raiser in Washington, October 2, 2004. Kerry pivoted from the contentious debate over Iraq (news - web sites) to bread-and-butter issues on Saturday and accused President George W. Bush (news - web sites) of 'serious misjudgments' on the economy as well as the war. REUTERS/Jim Young US ELECTION
U.S. Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) delivers a speech at Freedom High School in Orlando , Florida, October 2, 2004. Kerry pivoted from the contentious debate over Iraq (news - web sites) to bread-and-butter issues and accused President Bush (news - web sites) of 'serious misjudgments' on the economy as well as the war. REUTERS/Jim Young
U.S. Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) listens to his introduction at a campaign fund raiser in Washington, October 2, 2004. REUTERS/Jim Young US ELECTION
Carry them where?
Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry (news - web sites) plays football whilst on the campaign trail. More than 62 million US viewers tuned in to the first of three presidential debates in this year's election campaign, making it the most watched since 1992, according to Nielsen Media Research(AFP/Luke Frazza)
Women have been the key to Kerry's wealth
U.S. Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) (R) holds Faith Sutton as they are showered with confetti at a rally in Kissimmee, Florida October 1, 2004. Kerry's campaign was declared a no-gloat zone Friday after the White House challenger's debate against President George W. Bush (news - web sites) but aides said winds of change had begun to blow through the race. REUTERS/Jim Young US ELECTION
Democratic Presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites), D-Mass., tosses a football next to his campaign plane before departing for Tampa, Fla. to Orlando for a campaign stop Friday, Oct. 1, 2004. Behind him is Sen. Bill Nelson (news, bio, voting record), D-Fla. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)
U.S. Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry (news - web sites) (R) hugs his daughter Alexandra as he prepares to leave his hotel in Bal Harbour, Florida, October 1, 2004. Kerry debated President George W. Bush (news - web sites) in Miami last night, in the first of three scheduled debates. REUTERS/Jim Young
FootballFansForTruth
is this lambert field NormZ?
We know he's got the COMMIE MOMMIES....but I'm betting the Security Mom's go for Pres. Bush!
Oh yeah. Women really like it when girlie men make a$$es of themselves. sheesh F'n's awfully smug for a dork.
However, the point was made that women prefer someone as a leader who does have an attitude of certitude over some vasilating vasilene brained dude who thinks he's some kind of intellectual brain stem, like the un-manly Kerry or Edwards!!! This sure ain't over yet, by a long ways!!!
Remember, ladies, if you are not worth over $200 million, you would never have been good enough for him.
Kerry may be hugging his daughter, but by HER body language, she's NOT hugging him.
Look at where her arms and hands are. I bet he interrupted her cell phone conversation.
Very telling.
I actually had an ultra-feminist, liberal acquaintance of mine say this to me that "I guess I'll vote for Bush. You have to be ALIVE to 'control the decisions' you make for your own body, and Bush will keep me alive."
Just the other day I saw that women were turning to Bush. The media has their hopes renewed in spite of the horrific things Kerry said in the debate. Illusion is all that matters though. They are all saying he won the debate, and that is all that matters.
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