Posted on 10/06/2004 3:56:25 PM PDT by K1avg
Senate Analysis 2004 Bi-weekly Analysis Article – 10/6/2004 Update
As the election nears – just 27 days until Americans rush to the polls to decide our country's leadership – the Senate races are looking increasingly important. Many races have opened up towards one candidate, usually the incumbent, with just a few close races remaining to decide the control of the Senate.
Previously, the Democrats' chances at reclaiming Senate control were looking quite grim, but several races have now shifted in their favor, though their chances at taking back the Senate outright are still not very large. For just a little background, the Republicans control the Senate 51-49 (because Jeffords is really just a confused Democrat). There are 34 seats up for contest this season – 14 Republican (3 of which are open), and 19 Democratic (5 open). 21 of these seats I consider a safe bet for retention – 11 Republican, 10 Democrat. That means there are 13 seats being contested that will decide the control of the Senate – 4 Republican seats, and 9 Democratic seats.
A quick refresher on the designations:
Easy/Safe = 15+ points up – Non-competitive
Probably = 10+ points up
Likely = 5+ points up
Leaning/Slight = Nearly a toss-up, but leaning towards one candidate
and, of course, Toss-up means neither candidate is decidedly ahead.
And, so, without further ado, into the Races to Watch:
Alaska: There have been surprisingly few polls out of this race as of late. The last poll was a Democratic partisan poll in the third week of September, showing Knowles up 6. But it has been over two weeks since then, and significant movement could have occurred in the race. Also, the last non-partisan poll of the race showed Knowles up a mere 1 point.
I continue to contend that Alaska, as a very conservative state, is loath to elect a Democrat, and particularly a liberal, to any major office. Knowles has circumvented any “liberal” label by distancing himself from the national party and running a center-right platform – especially notable is his support of drilling in ANWR. No matter how hard he tries, though, he can't erase the “D” next to his name on the ballot. Murkowski has the incumbent advantage, but the polls show Knowles running a strong race. This is clearly a Toss-up race.
California: The Senate race in California has become drastically more uninteresting as of late. Senator Boxer has solidified her lead here as of late (the last four polls since early September show Boxer up 18, 18, 15, and 17), and Bill Jones's campaign has apparently stagnated. Arnold does not appear to be campaigning strongly for either Jones or Bush. This race is clearly becoming less competitive, and the designation is Probably Dem. retention.
Colorado: This race has confounded pundits for this entire election season, as both candidates trade leads in seemingly every other poll. The last three polls have had Coors +1, Salazar +1, and Coors +5. It has been nearly two weeks since a poll of this race has been conducted, however, and there could have been significant movement in that time. There's really not much more to say; this race remains a Toss-up (though leaning ever-so-slightly Republican) until another poll or some significant news from the race.
Florida: My home state has been decimated by not one, not two, not three, but four hurricanes in the past two months. While these hurricanes impacted almost every facet of life for many Floridians, politics slipped to the back burner. Also hurricane-related, I'm skeptical of the accuracy of any polls taken in Florida within the weeks following the hurricanes. They are probably only now just regaining accuracy.
So, the Senate race, then. Neither candidate has campiagned extensively after the primaries, also due to the hurricanes, and initial polls showed Castor ahead. The latest poll of the race, however, has Martinez ahead by four. It will be interesting to see how well the candidates' lightning campaigns over the next months succeed, and the final results of this hotly-contested race should be quite interesting. For now, it is a Toss-up, though, like Colorado, leaning ever-so-slightly Republican.
Georgia: the latest poll shows Republican Johnny Isakson ahead a full quarter of the electorate – 58-33 over Denise Majette. A very Safe Rep. takeover.
Illinois: Alas, though, Republicans get little bragging rights for the Georgia race compared to the Illinois contest. Obama leads, in the latest poll, by not a quarter of the electorate, but a full half - 68-17 over Alan Keyes. Keyes has my sympathy, myself being the victim of a similar rout in last year's student body presidential elections. But I digress. Safe Dem. takeover, with little possibility of getting any closer.
Louisiana: I believe I've described the Louisiana open primary system in the other articles, so I'll jump right into analysis on this one Vitter leads with 44% in the latest poll (a Democratic partisan poll, too) over his opponents: John with 24%, and Kennedy with 18%.
This race basically hinges on whether Vitter can reach 50% in the Nov. 2 primary and avoid a runoff. If Vitter is locked in a December runoff, he's toast, as there will be no George W. Bush or ballot initiatives for him to coattail votes from. Of course, a December runoff could be, per my previous articles, influenced by other Senate races nationwide. There's only one call here – wait and see. It seems Vitter has at least an outside shot at pulling 50% on Nov. 2, so I'm calling this one Leaning Rep. takeover.
North Carolina: Richard Burr has been moving much closer to Erskine Bowles in recent days (the last three polls all have Bowles up only one point), and he still has plenty of cash-on-hand for the run-up to Election Day. The candidates are both very well-qualified, and the deciding factor here may be the length of Bush's coattails in this state he is expected to win easily. The polls currently say Toss-up, and that's right where I put this race.
Oklahoma: This race is a similar situation to North Carolina. Both candidates are duly qualified - although questions have been raised recently of Tom Coburn's past – and this is a solidly Bush state, where the coattails could be possibly huge. Polls since early summer, however, have shown Democrat Carson with the lead, and the last six polls average to a lead of just under three points. This race, based solely on the polls, is Leaning Dem. takeover. Expect this race to break back towards Coburn if he can successfully deflect Carson's negative campaigning, and expect it to solidify for Carson if he cannot.
South Carolina: Jim DeMint is leading solidly in this race (12 points up in the latest non-partisan poll), and barring major incident, will win this Solid South seat. This one is Likely Rep. takeover.
South Dakota: In perhaps THE Senate race of the year, Tom Daschle and John Thune continue to duke it out in the red state of South Dakota. The two most recent polls, released within a day of each other, seem to contradict one another. Zogby has Daschle ahead 48-46, while Rasmussen shows Thune leading 50-46.
The polls on this race are all over the place. Out of the last four non-partisan polls, two have Thune ahead (although both are iterations of Rasmussen) and two have Daschle ahead, and they average to a margin of precisely 0. This race is a very close Toss-up. Neither candidate decidedly has the upper hand, and neither will likely get it as Election Day approaches. Watch for this one to go down to the wire...
Washington: George Nethercutt finally released an attack ad making use of Patty Murray's infamous statements regarding Osama bin Laden's supposed philanthropy. It doesn't appear to have any impact on the race. The latest SUSA poll has Murray ahead by 19 points. This is now a Probably Dem. retention, and may soon be Safe for Murray if Nethercutt doesn't make some major headway in the coming weeks.
Wisconsin: This race has surprised everybody by polling even slightly competitve. The last two polls have Feingold averaging a “mere” 14-point lead. This is Probably Dem. retention, but significantly less safe than Washington or California.
One other race, that in Arkansas is coming mightily close to entering a more competitive designation. The last poll shows Blanche Lincoln ahead of Jim holt 54-40. While this is a very comfortable lead, it's not quite as large as I'd like in a Safe race. I'm waiting for another poll before considering any movement.
In the other Non-Competitive Races:
Republicans in Alabama (Shelby), Arizona (McCain), Idaho (Crapo), Iowa (Grassley - +51 in latest poll), Kansas (Brownback), Kentucky (Bunning - +17 in latest poll), Missouri (Bond - +25 in latest poll), New Hampshire (Gregg), Ohio (Voinovich - +24 in latest poll), Pennsylvania (Specter - +22 in latest poll), and Utah (Bennett - +43 in latest poll) are expected to win easily.
Democrats in Connecticut (Dodd - +45 in latest poll), Hawaii (Inouye), Indiana (Bayh - +36 in latest poll), Maryland (Mikulski - +31 in a June poll), Nevada (Reid - +20 in latest poll), North Dakota (Dorgan), New York (Schumer), Oregon (Wyden - +27 in latest poll), and Vermont (Leahy) are expected to cruise.
The battle for Senate control has thus narrowed to a few key races. Alaska, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and South Dakota are all toss-ups. Louisiana and Oklahoma are also close. These aggregate outcome of these seven races will probably determine the control of the new Senate.
The possibilities and subjective probabilities for the outcome of said key races based on current predictions:
Scenario #1: GA and SC go Rep. IL goes Dem. LA goes Rep. and OK goes Dem., both switching parties. This leaves Republicans with a net +1 before the five toss-up races are decided. If AK, CO, and FL all go Rep, as they very well might, and NC and SD go Dem., Reps. Will net +2 seats and Senate control will be 53-47. If Reps. capture also NC and SD, seat gain will be +4, and control will be 55-45.
Scenario #2: GA, SC, LA, and IL all change hands. Republicans capture all five toss-up seats and OK. Seat gain is +5 and control is 56-44. This is probably the cap on Republican takeovers, as Wisconsin, Washington, and California (in subjective order of vulnerability) are all looking very heavily Dem. retention.
Scenario #3: GA, SC, and IL change hands. For the Democrats to reclaim control of the Senate, they would have to retain toss-up seats in FL, NC, and SD, and win back three more Republican seats. AK, CO, and OK are all possibilities. The Dems. would have to sweep all three of these races to net +2 seats and a slim 51-49 margin of control. So, in a nutshell, to regain control, Democrats would need to sweep all five toss-up races.
Scenario #3 is not entirely implausible, although it is highly unlikely. The best the Dems. can really hope for is to keep the margin small (possibly even at the status quo) for 2006.
My prediction, as usual, hinges with the most likely scenario, in this case #1. I predict:
Republicans win: GA, SC, LA, AK, CO, FL, and one of NC or SD
Democrats win: IL, OK, other of NC or SD
All other seats remain the same.
Republican net gain is +3 seats, and Senate control of the 109th Congress is 54-45-1 in favor of the Republicans.
Alaska Senate race is dead even. Tony's radio ads are deceitful, annoying and illogical. Like John Edwards.
I'll check them out later. Are you in Alaska, by any chance?
Not chance at all. By choice.
I'd love the Republicans to win big. They could get 55 seats. But if you were purely betting, as of how it looks today, unless Bush surges, you'd have to say the Republicans will stay at 51 or 52. But we can always pray for a miracle. They do happen!
I'm hoping Oklahoma isn't going to send that creep Carson to the senate, Coburn's campaign has been getting more aggresive with it's comercials this past week and the most recent poll this week shows a dead heat.
I don't think Vitter can beat Johns in a run off and I don't think he can get over 45 %. Too much fraud down here.
If Alaska polls are dead even, Bush will push her across the finish line.
There would need to be a tremendous amount of ticket spliting for Knowles to win with Bush winning by 20+.
Nader got 20% on the Green Party here last time. Ticket splitting is the norm. Bush is getting Murkowski to dead even, there is no more steam in the engine.
"If Vitter is locked in a December runoff, he's toast, as there will be no George W. Bush or ballot initiatives for him to coattail votes from..."
There is one possibility: If Republicans score larger-than-expected gains, Louisiana voters may decide they want to have a Senator in the majority party. Louisiana voters are more sensitive about that sort of thing than other voters.
Vitter wouldn't necessarily be toast if it ends in a runoff. Even John Breaux when he ran the first time for the senate had a tough race and only won the runoff by six points. In 1996 Woody Jenkins came very close to beating Landrieu in a runoff even as Clinton was winning the state with 52% of the vote.
Plus the Club for Growth is stepping in to back up Coburn. They won't let their man go without a fight.
Another very good point. I hope Bush has a GOTV effort here.
Probably not for himself. The polls show Bush running away with Louisiana. But on the local level it may be different. We recently had a turnover of state GOP party leaders. The new party chairman has emphasized use of grassroots and reaching out to voters on the ground level to build up the party in Louisiana. We keep coming close, and it may just be enough this time.
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