Posted on 10/17/2004 10:09:48 AM PDT by okstate
October 16, 2004--In Wisconsin, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Senator John Kerry with 48% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 47%. Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik and Independent Ralph Nader each earn 1% of the vote.
This latest survey marks a slight shift in Senator Kerry's direction. Weekly updates provided to Premium Members had shown the President with a modest but consistent lead in Wisconsin throughout the month of September and early October. Our last publicly released survey (October 1) found the President ahead by 3 points in Wisconsin.
Four years ago, Bush and Gore each received 48% of the vote in Wisconsin. Gore won the state by fewer than 5,000 votes out of 2.5 million. There is essentially no gender gap in the state for this election--men and women are both equally divided between the candidates.
The state remains in the Toss-Up column for our Electoral College projections. It is one of several "Blue" states carried by Al Gore four years ago that are currently in the Toss-Up category. Others include Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania.
In Wisconsin, 52% have a favorable opinion of President Bush and 51% have a favorable opinion of Senator Kerry. By a 60% to 25% margin, Wisconsin voters favor term limits for politicians.
In Wisconsin, 53% of all voters Approve of the way President Bush is performing his job. That's unchanged from a month ago and near his national Job Approval rating.
Another thing of note... I believe that this poll was sponsored by the Libertarian candidate
Wisconsin seems close but this is a volitile place to poll. I think it will be switching to and from from here on out.
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without the internals, I don't believe it either.
Also, losing WI backs Bush up against the wall by making FL a do or die state.
how does that work?
I don't think we'll lose Wisconsin. Ohio and New Mexico will be closer, IMO..
You mean you don't trust Rasmussen when the poll is close. If the poll showed President Bush winning in Wisconsin, you would trust Rasmussen implicitly.
Rasmussen's JA numbers for both candidates are always much higher than what other pollsters find. He rountinely has both candidates well above 50 percent JA, even in swing states.
Actually I never trust Rasmussen, especially since he was the absolute worst pollster in the 2000 election.
thanks
We gotta dig deep and take WI.
To tell the truth I didn't even know Rasmussen was around in 2000. Maybe his techniques are more advanced these days, but maybe not.
Me, I don't think any single poll is too reliable, so I go to the RealClearPolitics graph and get the average of the national polls, or I take the average of polls listed for a given state.
Rasmussen was known as "Portrait of America" in 2000. His final national poll had Bush up 9 percent.
What are Rasmussen's national numbers today?
With numbers this close, the polls don't have any relevance. We are getting upset over statistical noise. Either Bush or Kerry can be up and there is no real way to tell.
48.5 Bush - 46.4 Kerry
Rasmussen today:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm
Date Bush Kerry
Today 48.5 46.4
"...I take the average of polls listed for a given state..."
- - -
Looking at the averages won't do it, you have to look at the trends.
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