Posted on 10/19/2004 3:37:24 PM PDT by Oakleaf
CHATTING WITH A LONGTIME GOP OPERATIVE
I wish Bush supporters who feel pessimistic or jittery could listen to the phone conversation I just had with a longtime GOP operative. This gentleman, who has been in politics longer than I have been alive, states:
* If the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll gets any more separation in the coming days, and there’s one or two good state polls for Bush, this race is over.
* The University of Cincinnati poll showing Kerry up by 2 is “garbage.” It’s conducted over an entire week. The internals show Kerry leading among men 50 to 46 (what?) and leading 47 to 46 among women. Also note they have Kerry getting 95 percent of the African-American vote, when a national poll showed Bush getting 18 percent. Also note that Kerry leads among Democrats 88 to 7, independents 55 to 26, but still leads the overall poll by only two points.
* In any given cycle, the polls show about five or six GOP Senate candidates in competitive trailing who end up winning. This year, there are about six GOP Senate candidates leading in competitive races.
* In the past week or so, we’ve seen Team Kerry go after Mary Cheney; the candidate himself charge that Bush is going to bring back the draft; the citing of a disputed New York Times quote to allege that Bush is going to privatize Social Security; Kerry assert that if you get the flu this winter it’s George W. Bush’s fault; and that George W. Bush is lying when he says he wants the generals in the field to get what they need. (From the man who voted against the $87 billion!) What is this a sign of? Not a confident and aggressive campaign, but a desperate and flailing campaign.
The timing of the Social Security attacks were particularly baffling to this veteran of GOP campaigns. “Way too early,” he said. “If they did this the last weekend of the campaign, it would reach seniors, and the Bush folks wouldn’t have time to make a response. But instead they do it now.” The Bush team is responding already, and the attacks will be old news by the time Election Day rolls around.
Why would Team Kerry go so negative, so fast, so hard, and so outlandishly? They sensed a serious drop in the polls, this operative suspects. They expected to come roaring out of the debates, and instead, they’re acting as if things have really started to go south.
I don’t know if this operative is right about everything, but I sure as heck respect his instincts and his assessment.
[Posted 10/19 03:22 PM]
My personal opinions: Reasons to be hopeful: huge Christian votes for Bush because of his pro-life and pro-marriage stances, unprecendentedly large (20%? total) of black vote for Bush because of his pro-marrage views, large turnout and votes of gunowners for Bush since AWB not renewed and NRA endorses, surprisingly large number of Catholic votes for Bush because of Kerry's public abuse of the Faith and the Church, large turnout because it's a war.
Sounds like Rush is talking to the same operative this guy is...................
I thought about this the same way too, until I learned what a vastly disproportionate number of seniors...ARE VOTING RIGHT NOW BY ABSENTEE BALLOT.
Kerry vs Bush. Kerry doesn't stand a chance and here's why,
1) He's a Senator. Senators rarely get elected President.
2) He's a yankee. He has to win as a Democrat without a single Dixie state, Florida included. This is a monumental task.
3) He's a liberal in the extreme. His voting record is extremely liberal and will be used against him in the court of public opinion.
4) He has flipped flopped on almost every issue including the war.
5) Although he is a veteran, he is also a former anti-war protestor, hardly a popular thing when the country is fighting a just war.
6) The economy is booming. By November even the Buchananites will have jobs.
7) Bush has stolen all the RATs' issues.
8) Bush has implimented tax cuts, which Kerry was and is against.
9) There is no third party candidate siphoning votes away from Bush.
10) Bush has no primary challenger, so he has tons of money in the bank.
11) Foxnews, FreeRepublic and talk radio.
12) His very deiliberate use of profanity in the Rolling Stone interview.
13) He left his first wife to marry a rich heiress with a big mouth.
14) He has demonstrated that he is less than truthful (i.e Botox denials).
15) The Deniacs will not forgive him. Many will stay at home.
16) 9/11 changed things in ways pollsters and pundits have yet come to understand or account for.
Yes it is. The polls are generally trending towards Bush`s reelection. Two separate factors could give Bush a landslide vicotry.
If the 4-million Christian conservatives, who supposedly stayed home in 2000, decide to come out and vote for the obvious candidate of choice, the President will win in a landlside.
A poll taken by the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, shows 18% of the black Americans are supporting Bush. If the President gets that 18% of the black vote, he will win in a landslide.
Anybody hear Brit Hume say that the Fox poll numbers were more in line with private polls, than with other public polls.
I don't think he meant to say it (mention the "private" polls that aren't available to the public), but my guess is that internals of Dems and Republicans are showing similar numbers to the Fox poll.
This is great! Anyone have more positive notes to add?
You left out the medical profession and those involved in the insurance business.....Not to mention the vets and the families and friends of those currently serving in the military. Don't forget Zell's angels...who are sick of what their party has become ....and then there are the small business owners, the police and firefighters, the..........well you get the idea!......So why are the polls so close?
ping
And Kerry is scraping after every vote. We can't miss any of his tricks. They might make the difference. The only thing that will save the country from the scare and dare tactics of Kerry--will be if the unpolled "cell phone" voters, the low poll-weighted evangelicals who refused to turn out the last two years, and a chunk of the democrats--claiming they are for Kerry (although they admit they loathe him) show up in full strength... make a break for Bush ...and sanity...at the polls.
I personally don'tthink they are mama. What you see with the widening poll numbers is pollsters trying to cover their arses so that when this turns out to be a 10-20% margin in the President's favor they have an easier time explaining it to the public.
Don't forget "gay marriage" either mama. Even though nobody's talking about it, this is one of the white elephant issues that's sitting at every dinner table in the country. Nobody's talking about it but everybody's thinking about it. Old people understand social security instinctively. Workers understand tax cuts instinctively.
Who cares about who ELSE is getting an abortion. Who understands deficits and how they affect things. That's a far away washington problem.
But people DO understand gay marriage instinctively and they don't like it.
Security is another issue people understand instinctively. A good economy means squat without security. Abortion means squat without security. Health care means squat without security. Security trumps ALL! Security, security and nothing BUT security is the watchword for this election.
Bush by 10-20 sez I :)
Godspeed and God Bless America!
Another hopeful sign:
Q: Where is Kerry campaigning?
A: In states he should have locked up weeks ago.
Seems like it's a sign of the same old Leftist/Dem crap, to me.
Normally, I would dismiss talk of private polls as mere manipulation, but Brit is about the only journalist around these days whom I trust implicitly. If he says it, I think we can bank on it.
Not just sanity, but self-preservation. Virtually everyone who understands the terrorist threat to themselves and their loved ones will vote for GWB.
OTOH....If the polls were not close than there would be no reason to poll frequently....They're self propagating....Like sensationalizing the news sells "papers" or ups ratings.
Don't know if you spoke to the same gentleman, but MY Senior operative told me that it is a foregone conclusion that Pres. Bush will win the election - but it will be a closer affair than we would want for comfort
You were dead wrong, troll.
I really think it will be landslide for Bush and the rest of us...I just always have to caution my self that it isn't over until the election is over, I fear complacency and people not going to vote because "Bush will win".
Always remember the Duke of Wellington re: Waterloo (and repeated at Normandy) "It was a dammned close-run thing. It was the dammdest close-run thing you ever saw." Again, Wellington (?Waterloo ?Peninsula Campaign) "It will be hard pounding. We will see who can pound the hardest."
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