How so?
I want to see his numbers because the article says that there were 17 out of 1,024 ways that a tie could occur in the 10 battleground States. That would be 17/1024 = 1.66% if my calculator is correct.
So he must have another set of numbers with Hawaii added to the mix, etc...
The problem with his 3.25% statement is that just doing the division assumes that every way that a tie could occur are equally probable, which is NOT true...
dvwjr
You've answered your own question. If one only knows the input values to the usual MOE, then the output is still only good to about 1 figure. "...about 3%...." would have been a better way to say this.