President Elect 2004 Electoral College Computer Analysis [Electoral: 283 for Bush, 255 for Kerry.]

President Elect ^ | 28OCT04 | James R Whitson

[familyop]

President Elect's first computer analysis of the 2004 presidential race predicts that if the election were held now, Republican candidate George W. Bush would defeat Democratic candidate John Kerry. According to the computer, which takes into account current poll data, past elections, and state voting tendencies, Bush would win 283 electoral votes from 31 states, while Kerry would win 255 electoral votes from 19 states and DC. If "on the edge" states are not included, the count is Bush: 205, Kerry: 183, toss ups: 150

[familyop]

...not up-to-the-day, but it's interesting, and it's not from any big media company that I know of.

[Libertarian4Bush]

updated 10/28/200-FIVE?

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Sure, Arkansas gets included as on the edge, but Hawaii doesn't.

[Perdogg]

I think they high if they say IA, WI, MN are going Kerry.

[Josh in PA]

My own CAMEC (Search FR for CAMEC) analysis will be out either TOMORROW NIGHT or MONDAY AFTERNOON!!!!!!!!! Depending on whether I go golfing tomorrow.. :-D.

I will have the EXACT VOTE TOTAL PROJECTIONS FOR EACH STATE!!!!!!!

[Clintonfatigued]

Hawaii is not safe for Kerry anymore. Even Democrats admit that they were caught napping there. Two major 527 groups are running attack ads there, which is revealing in itself.

[Clintonfatigued]

Hawaii is not safe for Kerry anymore. Even Democrats admit that they were caught napping there. Two major 527 groups are running attack ads there, which is revealing in itself.

[FreeKeys]

Remember the "DUI discovery" worked against Bush by a LOT at the last minute in 2000.   Who knows what the 'rats will pull on Sunday night and Monday?   It ain't over until it's over.    So KEEP ON CAMPAIGNING !    Consider copying and emailing things like THIS again.

[cajungirl]

Josh, give up your damned golf game for the sake of the Republic and for the general hi hysteria we are into here. Get that chart out tomorrow or there will be trouble for you, Capice???

[standupfortruth]

LOL Good catch. In fact a few polls now have Bush leading in Hawaii with Cheney scheduled there this weekend.

[Paleo Conservative]

...not up-to-the-day, but it's interesting, and it's not from any big media company that I know of.

It is one of the best sites on the web with historical data about previous presidential elections. For some of the more recent presidential elections, they break down the popular vote in each state. They even break down the statewide totals for Maine and Nebraska which both follow the Mundt Plan for allocating their electoral votes.

[GeorgeW23225]

This map is NOT accurate. Hawaii and New Jersey are "edge" States for Kerry. Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin are edge States for Bush. Also......trust me when I tell you the TEXAS is SAFE for Bush, every bit as much as Taxachussettes is for sKerry!!

[familyop]

Yes, and remember that a lot of Democrats read this site. See the FR poll in the lower right hand column of the page behind the following link. Some days, we see far too much doom and gloom here. And poll reports have become nothing more than demoralizing tools for each side to discourage the other from voting.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/browse

Last chance poll: Who gets your vote?
George W. Bush
79.1%

John F. Kerry
13.5%

[...]

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Now, if the actual vote would reflect FR's poll.:)

[JLS]

I think of it this way. Bush has:

1. South-FL for 100
2. SW/Mount + AK for 105
3. IN and MO for 22

That gives Bush 227. That means Bush needs 42 for reelection. So how can he get those 42? There are lots of ways:

1. FL for 27 + OH for 20 = 47.
2. FL for 27 + WI for 10 + IA for 7 + WV for 5 = 49.
3. OH for 20 + WI 10 + IA for 7 + MN for 10 for 47.

There are tons of combinnation. Most people right now think Bush will get WV and FL. If that is true, then he is at 259 and needs 10 someplace and HI could get into the mix. And of course there is always the chance that Bush does not a carry NM or CO.

[Josh in PA]

I know, it's tough.. I spent all day analyzing and working on expected voter turnout..

I'm in Central PA, and it's 60 degrees here in NOVEMBER! If you're a golfer here you can't pass up this kind of weather this late in the year. It's usually starts snowing around now.

I'll work on it in the morning, and I should have it done by the evening.

[GeorgeW23225]

Sorry.......I meant to say that TEXAS is LOCKED UP for Bush!!

[cajungirl]

Josh, am I going to have to call in the heavies? Golf can wait, your public or your "peeps" are waiting. I just found out what that means and I like saying it.

The peeps demand you give up your golf game.

[familyop]

I agree.

The site owner or comment writer wrote on another of his pages that he knows that Hawaii is polling ahead for the President in some polls, but that he is holding off on putting Hawaii into the Republican bag, yet. That's also because he doesn't show "white" states.

Either way, I'm happy that Democrats are being prompted to spend some of their resources on Hawaii and certain other states.

[GeorgeW23225]

Your math is "fuzzy". You're counting Floida twice in your calculations