Continuing Distress on the Jobs Front

Newsmax ^ | Nov. 5, 2004 | Paul Craig Roberts

[Ahriman]

Republicans are celebrating 337,000 new jobs created in October, but a look behind the numbers shows the same discouraging trend of the past four years. The U.S. economy can only create jobs in government and in areas of domestic services that cannot be outsourced or replaced with imports.

Government employment accounts for 41,000 of the new jobs. The private economy produced 296,000 jobs in October. Of these jobs, 71,000 are in construction; 36,000 are in wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing; credit services account for 17,000 jobs; employment services (primarily temporary help) account for 55,000 jobs; school administrators and teachers and health care and social assistance account for 62,000 jobs, bars and restaurants account for 20,000 jobs.

These are not “new economy” jobs, and they are not “old economy” manufacturing jobs. Today the U.S. economy has 2.7 million fewer manufacturing jobs and 1.26 million fewer private sector jobs than when Bush was inaugurated.

The only areas of job growth are in government, waitstaff and bars, education and health services, construction, and credit intermediation. Gains in these areas have been more than offset by losses elsewhere.

During October U.S. manufacturing lost another 5,000 jobs. Charles W. McMillion, president of MBG Information Services, reports that hours worked for non-managerial manufacturing workers have declined 7.6% since the current recovery began - an unprecedented development. “Never before,” writes McMillion, “has a recovery failed to increase the number of hours worked in manufacturing.”

[jb6]

bump

[kddid]

An argument for Protectionism?

[Willie Green]

"It's like someone died in your family"

[ml1954]

..but a look behind the numbers shows the same discouraging trend of the past four years. The U.S. economy can only create jobs in government and in areas of domestic services that cannot be outsourced or replaced with imports.

As one of the outsourced, I can say you better get used to it. I would NEVER advise a young adult to try to make a career in any of these fields -- computers, engineering, accounting. I don't know what the solution is, but I have trouble being optimistic about the future of the American middle class. The DIMs have less than a solution with their rules, regulations, and protectionism. I think the people in the Red states know this. But where will it all lead?

[jb6]

Took me 7 months to find replacement work, most is in India, and even now it's contract work.

[jb6]

Protectionism works: example is Reagan's quotas on auto makers, the one industry not outsourced. Russia is a good example too: 25% tarrif on auto imports, in the last 4 years 5 manufacturing plants openned up and Toyota is about to make 6. All for the Russian market only.

[Chuckster]

Sorry. I am not convinced.

With the national unemployment rate at around 5.5%, local (Hawaii) unemployment at under 5% and the evidence of my own lying eyes, I just don't buy all the doom and gloom about unemployment. My counterpart in California told me that they have two positions in sales management, one pays about $75K and the other about $125K plus perks and bonuses. Guess what; they can't find anyone to fill them (Mainly because none of the candidates are willing to move to high tax-high cost of living California). My own company constantly has vacancies in positions ranging from entry level to $50K or more (Flat rate technicians at $50K+ are a critical need). Our biggest problem is finding qualified applicants that can pass the drug test.

Everyone I know that has employees has the same problem.

[Common Tator]

One hundred years ago 92 percent of american jobs were in agriculture. From 1900 to 1950 we changed from an Agricultural nation to a manufacturing nation with nearly 50 percent of our workers employed in assembly line work.

Since the early 60's the continued automation of manufacturing tasks has reduced the number of high paying unskilled assembly line jobs.

Those that think the industrial assembly line jobs can be preserved are as foolish as the Democratic party of William Jennings Bryan who thought that agricultural jobs could be preserved.

This is a new century and those that think the Ford Motor, US Steel, and GM type assembly line jobs are going to remain going to be disappointed. The number of jobs going over seas is not that large. About one in 30 lost jobs goes over seas. The jobs are being lost to robots.

In 1972 automotive foundries employed iron pourers. Today robots pour molten Iron. Then men spray painted cars. Today robotic arms paint cars.

Anyone who thinks the days of unskilled assembly line jobs are doing anything except dying are fools.

The future belongs to the educated. The unemployment rate of college graduates is 2.9 percent. It is the uneducated who will suffer. There is no future for those who are not eductated anymore than there was future 80 years ago for those who could not read and write.

Nothing stays static for more than a couple of generations. As computerized automation continues it march the assembly line jobs will disappear totally. There will be new ways to earn a living. Those that want jobs will have to learn the new skills required. The value of an uneducated warm body will soon be gone for anything other than demeaning low paying jobs.

The clock can not be turned back. The secret to a prosperous future education .. learning new technology.

[Tulane]

If you think protectionism works in over the long haul, take a look at Japan's lost decade.

[JLS]

For a guy who at one time understood that economies change and thus the mix of jobs continually changes, Roberts is sounding pretty weak.

[TalBlack]

"The secret to a prosperous future education .. learning new technology."

Or Identifying a need and serving it.

I wonder how many Freepers are in business for themselves and how many started up this year? I did, myself. So far so good.

[ml1954]

I think protectionism may work in the short term, but not in the long term. While many auto's are assembled in the US, almost all of the components are manufactured offshore and imported. This is just a finger in the dike. There is simply no way and American worker can compete against a worker in India or China that is making 1/10 of what an American would be paid. I've worked with these people when they were here under the H1-B program. I've talked to them. They used to be able to come here and in 5-10 years make enough to go back home and live the rest of their lives in comfort. Now that's ended with them because the work can be done in India or China. How we compete with that?

[Chuckster]

I would NEVER advise a young adult to try to make a career in any of these fields -- computers, engineering, accounting.

Try sales, marketing, transportation logistics, publishing; heck, do you know what an automobile technician gets these days? A motorcycle mechanic earns $50K or more. Some of them earn a lot more. Of course, if you're tough enough, you can start your own business. The times have never been better for an entrepreneur.

[Dont_Tread_On_Me_888]

Today the U.S. economy has 2.7 million fewer manufacturing jobs

And part of the reason why is technological advances and productivity improvements is making it harder and harder to justify adding manufacturing jobs.

May I suggest that blue collar workers get familiar with their local community college and bring their skills inline with the 21st century.

[ml1954]

The secret to a prosperous future education .. learning new technology.

As long as it isn't also learned in India and China.

[SwankyC]

would NEVER advise a young adult to try to make a career in any of these fields -- computers

What area were you in before you got outsourced? If you're a COBOL or some other obsolete technology programmer, you can expect to get outsourced. I work with several Indian people and we have an offshore team. The management isnt real fond of them. They generally give the crappy grunt work to them. The Company is also looking to hire more Americans.

I tell you, Im a VB.NET programmer and I recently started looking for a new job. The only thing I did was put my resume on dice and monster. I've probably had 150-200 phone calls over the past three weeks with opportunities in Wisconsin, Utah, Louisiana, NJ, NY, NC, Ga and ALL OVER SoCal. If you're current, you can expect to find another job.

[ml1954]

Try sales, marketing, transportation logistics, publishing...

That's right, jobs that either cannot be outsourced or that require face to face relationships or that are that require knowledge and familiarity with the culture.

[Southack]

"Today the U.S. economy has 2.7 million fewer manufacturing jobs..."

China And Mexico Lost 22 Million Manufacturing Jobs In The Past 6 Years

Has it ever occurred to the "geniuses" at Newsmax that *everyone* has lost manufacturing jobs because computers and robots can do more and more jobs each year?!

Sheesh...

[Leonora]

I don't think that the answer is in protectionism. The answer should be in entirely new kind of economy. I think more venture capital should go to new energy and new technology (bio, space, other..). It may take several years to get there, but that's the only way IMO.

I hope that Bush administration realizes this. He will already help small companies with lower taxes and better health plans, but also we need more seed money...