N.M. Count Continues; Swing to Kerry Unlikely

The Albuquerque Journal ^ | November 6, 2004 | Andy Lenderman

[CedarDave]

Could more than 19,000 uncounted ballots reverse President Bush's current advantage over Democrat John Kerry in New Mexico's presidential vote count?

It's unlikely, even in a best-case scenario for Kerry, said Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling Inc. "It doesn't look like the math is there for Kerry to reverse the outcome of the election," said Sanderoff, whose firm conducts polling for the Albuquerque Journal.

The Associated Press called the race for Bush on Wednesday, but votes are still being counted in New Mexico on Friday, three days after the election. Bush's margin has been been narrowing.

The president had an advantage of 8,588 votes over Kerry on Friday afternoon, according to an Associated Press count. Meanwhile, roughly 17,360 provisional ballots remained to be verified and counted statewide, the AP reported after a survey of 33 counties. Another 1,800 in-lieu-of ballots given to absentee voters remain to be counted in Bernalillo County.

The arithmetic Friday— outstanding votes versus the latest margin— made it look unlikely that Kerry could overtake Bush in the count, Sanderoff concluded. That analysis is based on the following assumptions, with best-case scenarios applied for Kerry:

That most or all provisional ballots would be verified by elections officials as legitimate. Republicans maintain that many of the ballots will be rejected, either because they were cast by unregistered voters or for other reasons. Provisional ballots must be verified before they can be counted. One Republican estimated that as many as half of the provisional ballots could be rejected.

That Kerry would receive bigger vote margins in the provisional vote count than he did on Election Day in Bernalillo, Doña Ana, Santa Fe and McKinley counties, where the bulk of the provisional ballots remain to be counted.

That Kerry would receive favorable vote margins for the rest of the counties where provisional ballots remain to be counted.

That minor party candidates would not get many votes in the provisional ballot count.

"We just applied very favorable scenarios to Kerry at the county level and he still came up short," Sanderoff said. "With all those built-in assumptions, we still find that Kerry could only cut the margin in half, and could not flip the numbers to change the outcome of the election," Sanderoff said.

War of words

In other developments Friday, the war of words— and some peace-making— over Tuesday's election continued.

Democrats criticized a Republican leader for his assertion that the protracted vote count could be an attempt by Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron to change the outcome of the election to benefit Gov. Bill Richardson. Both Vigil-Giron and Richardson are Democrats. Richardson, who helped Kerry's campaign here, is widely believed to have national political aspirations.

"Other states with larger populations have processed elections results, so why are we still counting provisional ballots three days later?" Allen Weh, chairman of the Republican Party of New Mexico, asked in a news release. "The only reason for this delay is either their system is broken— and that's Vigil-Giron's fault— or this is an attempt to change the voting results for Gov. Richardson's benefit."

Republican Party executive director Greg Graves got into the fray, asserting to The Santa Fe New Mexican that Richardson is conspiring to steal the election. "I believe this is a conspiracy," Graves told the newspaper Thursday.

"At some point somebody has got to reach out and cut out this vitriolic partisan rhetoric," Democratic chairman John Wertheim responded. "Legally, under both federal and state law, these provisionals have to be counted," Wertheim also said, referring to the continuing vote count. "What are they wanting us to do— they want us to throw away valid ballots?"

Then Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., entered the picture. "I told the governor that I disassociated myself from, and disavowed, the remarks of Mr. Graves," Domenici said in a statement. "I have also called Mr. Graves and told him that I believe his allegations were false and tended to inflame tensions when we should all proceed openly and calmly."

Richardson followed up with a statement of his own, saying, "I am pleased Sen. Domenici repudiated the despicable statements made by the Republican Party executive director, which are totally out of line with my philosophy of bipartisanship." A spokesman for Vigil-Giron said the comments by Graves and Weh are "extremist and irresponsible."

Domenici also discussed his concern "with the inability of our state to get a timely vote count." "New Mexico is one of the last states, if not the last in the union, to be able to get a final count," the state's senior senator said. "The various difficulties New Mexico has historically experienced in getting votes in a timely fashion, and counting those votes within full public view, reflects badly on our state. Without a doubt, reforming New Mexico's system should be the focus of legislative action."

Richardson said, "I'm frustrated, too. Senator Domenici is right. Why is it that . . . days after the election, we don't know who's won?"

THE REMAINING BALLOTS

Here is an update on New Mexico counties with a substantial number of ballots to be counted, as of Friday evening:

Bernalillo: 11,200 provisional ballots; beginning to determine how many will be eligible. Clerk hopes to have that figure tonight, but ballots won't be counted until canvass on Nov. 12. County also has 1,800 in-lieu-of ballots that will be counted next week.

Doña Ana: 2,755 provisionals; hasn't determined how many are eligible. Expects to count eligible ballots mid-week.

Eddy: 106 provisionals; hasn't determined how many are eligible. Canvass is Nov. 12.

McKinley: About 700 provisionals; began eligibility process Friday.

Otero: 115 provisionals; hasn't determined how many are eligible. Canvass is Tuesday.

Rio Arriba: 200 provisionals; hasn't determined how many are eligible. Canvass is Thursday.

San Juan: About 600 provisionals; hasn't determined how many are eligible.

Santa Fe: 1,067 provisional ballots; hasn't determined how many are eligible. Clerk hopes to have that figure Sunday evening. Will canvass results by mid-week.

Taos: 157 provisionals; hasn't determined how many are eligible. Canvass is Monday.

Source: The Associated Press Copyright 2004 Albuquerque Journal

[CedarDave]

Whew! Lots of jawing going back and forth here in NM. For the record, the current ABQJournal/AP vote count as of the time of this post has President Bush ahead by 8,588 votes (I will post that link below). Do not use the SOS web site; their totals go up and down and gave rise to the charge of vote manipulation when Kerry was given a temporary lead. A number of other Journal articles of interest were in this mornings paper and I will post links below.

[kingattax]

Butthead Richardson's counting method : 1 for Bush, 2 for Kerry...1 for Bush and 3 for kerry........

[MizSterious]

Thanks for the update. If you have a temporary pinglist for the NM vote situation, I'd sure like to be added.

[Use It Or Lose It]

The tone of Richardson's remarks on Tuesday night led me to believe he was ready to spring some phantom ballots if they were needed. Trust not the Governor of NM.

[CedarDave]

Here is a link to the ABQJournal/AP vote site and links to other Journal articles of interest. The Journal, which is now a pay subscriber site, has made all election related articles free.

New Mexico Election Results

Bernalillo Co. Clerk: Uncounted Votes Protected

Doña Ana Ordered to Explain Why Ballots Disqualified

Analysis: More N.M. Hispanics Shift to Bush

Incumbency Benefited Heather Wilson

And a final story from Arizona:

Arizona Proposition 200 Scares Migrants

[drc43]

Interesting. A poster on election night kept saying it would be stolen in New Mexico. I believe he ended up being banned.

Now it seems he was close to the truth.

[CedarDave]

I don't have a ping list, but just go to topics and click on New Mexico, all my posted threads are there.

[Mister Baredog]

"The only reason for this delay is either their system is broken— and that's Vigil-Giron's fault— or this is an attempt to change the voting results for Gov. Richardson's benefit."

Let's see. The DUmbocrats waved the "bloody shirt" throughout the campaign about the 2000 election and Florida, that was just fine, perhaps these DUmmy morons don't remembert how NM came up with a big bag full of Gore votes after Bush was leading their state in 2000. They "stole" that one, WE would hate to think it's a regular pattern.

The "double standard", ok for us but not you mentality is alive and well in their puny brains.

[SpookBrat]

They're going to find 12,000 ballots in the back of a closet some where, I'm sure.

[CedarDave]

The head of the NM GOP got his hand slapped by Pete, but he needed to put the Rats on notice that their playing hard and fast with votes as they have done in the past would not be tolerated.

[StJacques]

You've provided a lot of good solid information in all of this CedarDave. Thank you for the work.

[CedarDave]

The Albuquerque Journal is to be commended for their coverage. They are playing it straight and even endorsed W last weekend.

[Indie]

Then Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., entered the picture. "I told the governor that I disassociated myself from, and disavowed, the remarks of Mr. Graves,"

Self-serving damned RINO lawyers need to go. All they care about is protecting themselves and their own [other Senators regardless of party].

[CedarDave]

Thank you for your remark. I do have some experience in this; I did the same in 2000 when I was but a newbie. :>)
[But W eventually lost of Gore here. :>( ]

[az_jdhayworth_fan]

I really worry about the whole fraud aspect of the NM election results... Especially after the county clerk in Dona Ana County (southern NM) "found" those extra ballot boxes in 2000. My husband and I voted early in Arizona and went over to Dona Ana to volunteer for the Bush campaign. What I saw was lots of enthusiasm and huge support among the voters by walking the precincts and just waving signs in street traffic.

My own informal polls told me that the momentum at least in Dona Ana county was with Bush, and the initial results mirrored that. However, since Tuesday night when we got the day's tally (52/48 for Bush), the subsequent counting (of provisional ballots???), has seen Bush's edge go steadily downhill.

Granted, I can't prove anything, but since our volunteer lawyers have probably gone home to their real jobs and they are out of the way of the mercenary lawyers for Kerry (well paid just like their college and high school sign wavers), I have reservations about the outcome, and I applaud the Republican Chairman's courage to call a spade a spade. Someone ought to!!!

[CedarDave]

I'm not sure Pete is a lawyer (anyone know??), but Pete a couple of years ago stormed the Bernalillio County clerks office when he thought she was mishandling the vote count and dared anyone to throw him out. As I said above, I think the Pubbies had to put the possibility of funny business out there to keep the spotlight on the Dems.

[jveritas]

Bernallilo county: Kerry carried this county by 51.2% to 47.6% for President Bush. There are 11200 provisional ballot in this county. Assuming that all of them are accepted (which is impossible) and using the same ratio 51.2/47.6, Kerry net gains will be 403 ballots.

Dona Ana county: Kerry carried this county by 50.7% to 48.2% for President Bush. There are 2755 provisional ballot in this county. Assuming that all of them are accepted (which is impossible) and using the same ratio 50.7/48.2, Kerry net gains will be 69 ballots.

Santa Fe county: Kerry carried this county by 71% to 28% for President Bush. There are 1067 provisional ballot in this county. Assuming that all of them are accepted (which is impossible) and using the same ratio 71/28, Kerry net gains will be 459 ballots.

If we make an "impossible" and let us say "delusional" best case scenario for Kerry and assume that he carries the 18500 provisional ballots by a 2:1 margin, he will get a net gain from these provisional ballots of 6105 votes.

So he will still be short by (8588-6105) = 2483 votes less than President Bush.

[az_jdhayworth_fan]

The problem is in how they "verify" those provisional votes. When we were there, some of the committee had witnessed many illegal aliens being rounded up for "provisional" voting.

I know they would end up in the circular file in a perfect world. But in a state that has a history of being a Democratic machine??? With our volunteer lawyers safely out of the way??? Sorry to be a pessimist, but in this case, I just feel like a pessimist is an optimist with experience.

[StAnDeliver]

Imus in the Morning, 10/29/04:

Richardson: "Lot of allies like France and Germany and England who, well, England's fine. But France and Germany who previously have said they're not going to participate with troops, not saying they'll definitely change their minds, but there will be more of a willingness and the United Nations, too, and the UN Security Council -- France, China, the Security Council members whose have basically stifled us in the past, I think will be more positive. And I have heard the passion in Senator Kerry's voice about wanting to do things right there, and at least eliminate a lot of the expenditures that we're putting out there when there are so many needs here in America.

Imus: "You know, I like you Governor and I don't want to be disrespectful, but you sound drunk.

Richardson: [nervous laughter] "No. No."

Imus: "I mean, you sound like a crazy person. None of that is going to happen. You went to the UN. You know what those people are. They're not going to do anything. They've already said they won't do anything. They're not going to get involved in this horrible mess. So when I ask you what he can realistically do, what you just told me is crazy talk, Governor.

Richardson: "No, Don, I think there is a lot of ill-will towards us right now. We kind of went it alone. We went alone and we didn't get international support. I think Senator Kerry has a the kind of experience. He has been in the Foreign Relations Committee 20 years. He's traveled a lot, he knows these folks. I think there will be a view that America is, has got a new multilateralist, not approach, but that we at least will try to bring some allies into what we're doing. You have to have international support for your goals."

Imus: [interrupting] "They probably can't wait to get some people in there and get them beheaded. I mean, you just - this is crazy talk, Governor.

Richardson: "I just - you know, Don, it is election time. [sheepishly] What do you expect?"

Imus: [rampant laughter in the studio] "Oh, now that's the Governor we know and love."

[CedarDave]

When we were there, some of the committee had witnessed many illegal aliens being rounded up for "provisional" voting.

I hope some one from the committee notified the party higher ups. I suspect that may be one reason that the Dona Ana county DA rounded up the sheriff's officers and the State Police to make sure the county clerk opened the office to both parties while the provisional votes were being examined for validity. Click on the Dona Ana link above to see what the Pubbies are doing to ensure, to the extent they can, that only valid votes are cast.