""If we go back in history to prior presidential elections, those exit polls were dead on. Something has changed to make them less dead on."
This is an easy one. Historically there were a greater number of housewives who voted early. Now many more women work, and there are a far greater number of unemployed who vote early. Unemployed tend to vote Democrat where housewives were split more evenly. Unless employment status is taken into account, early voter poll samples will continue to favor Democrats.
This is an easy one. Historically there were a greater number of housewives who voted early. Now many more women work, and there are a far greater number of unemployed who vote early. Unemployed tend to vote Democrat where housewives were split more evenly. Unless employment status is taken into account, early voter poll samples will continue to favor Democrats.
The unemployed do not support your thesis, because in prior elections there were MORE unemployed than now. A lower unemployment rate should have boosted early GOP numbers. And your claim about more women working has nothing to do with changes from the 1990s until now, because the change in married women's work participation occurred between 1960 and 1980. Thus, for your hypothesis to hold, the exit poll problems should have dogged exit polls during the 1980s and early 1990s, but NOT NOW. They shouldn't be a problem now, since statisticians would have learned in the meantime to correct for such early daytime imbalances.