Posted on 11/11/2004 3:45:32 PM PST by Tall_Texan
Someone with better access to Florida's election data that I am can now settle a question leftover from the 2000 Election.
As you'll recall, the tv networks called Florida for Gore before the polls had even closed in the Central Time Zone part of the state, depressing the amount of votes Bush likely would have received. Now that the 2004 Election is over, it's possible to extrapolate how much that early call may have cost Bush.
1. Take the Florida counties that are in the Central Time Zone. Count the total number of votes cast in the presidential elections in 1996 (Clinton-Dole) and 2004 (Bush-Kerry) and devide by two to get the average.
2. Count the total number of votes cast in the 2000 presidential election from those same counties.
3. Subtract the total in Step 2 from the total in Step One. This would represent the number of voters who potentially did not vote in 2000 but did vote in 1996 and 2004 - the ones we can presume intended to vote in 2000 but left after hearing of Gore's "win".
4. Since Bush carried these counties in 2000 by roughly a 60% margin (you can figure the exact margin if you wish to do the math), take the total votes figure that you got from Step 3 and reduce it by 4/5ths (80%).
5. What you have left then is an estimate (that's all it would be good for) of what Bush's margin of victory could have been in 2000 but for the bogus call by the media for Gore. Add this number to 537 and you would get the number Bush *should* have won by in Florida in 2000.
In Bill Sammon's excellent book "At Any Cost", he cited Yale studies that estimated Bush could have been cheated out of as many as 10,000 votes due to the media gaffe (to be kind). I, personally, think that is too high a figure but even if it were 2,000 or more, might it have prevented the recounts and challenges that Gore used to try to overturn the results at the polls? It's an interesting question to ponder.
I realize there are other issues such as military ballots, spoiled ballots, Pat Buchanan votes in Palm Beach County, etc. that one could use to tweak the number but, with a solid mathematically sound projection arrived from these numbers, we can gain additional ammunition in refuting the lie that Bush "stole" the 2000 election. If anything, the Democrats tried to steal it from him.
Here are the counties that are in the Central Time Zone for those that want to do some work:
Bay
Holmes
Calhoun
Escambia
Gulf
Jackson
Okaloosa
Santa Rosa
Walton
Washington
Quick and dirty, just looking at the 2-party vote.
Total 2-party vote in Florida increased by 24% from 2000 to 2004. Total 2-party vote in the CST counties increased by 27.7%.
The difference is about 10,000 votes.
While this points to a suppressed vote, it's difficult to say for sure just how much. One has to take into account population changes over that 4-year period and so forth.
In other words, while there almost certainly was a suppressed vote, and enough of one to take the race from 537 votes to something in the thousands, a precise estimate isn't possible just using the total vote. Population shifts and turnout efforts are a very important factor.
A nice answer.
BTW, Bush actually took 68% of the 2-party vote in the CST counties in 2000, so you'd take 36% of the "missing votes" and add them to his 2000 margin.
I don't have the data to back up where he got the number, but in an interview, I heard Karl Rove say the network call cost 20,000 votes in the pan handle. I know that sounds high, but that is what the great architect said.
I always felt it would be higher than 10,000 because Pensacola Naval Base would have been a big portion of the votes. And .. I have always felt that was one of the main reasons for cutting off that part of FL.
Also .. in a new book about "if it's not close they can't cheat" .. keeping FL close was part of the game plan.
I believe Jeb was confident of FL because of the panhandle vote. What's really funny is the proportion of dems is high in that area - even though the majority vote for repubs. So .. the dems disenfranchised members of their own party.
Scarborough thought it was between 15000 and 20000 votes, he should know his district is the Pensacola area
That's why I included the 1996 vote totals as a balancing factor to offset the growth in the area which has been taking place quite strongly along the beaches.
I think that by averaging the vote totals in 1996 and 2004, it is possible to get a rough estimation as to how many people would have voted in 2000 with all normal conditions. I realize, there are several things in the formula that might not be totally accurate but that is not the point.
Instead of wild guesses from a couple of thousand to 20,000, you can narrow that to a figure that's more tangible so the figure quoted can be more believable.
I've always thought the number in the guestimates has always been ridiculously too high.
People have to had:
1) Not voted till the last hour
2) Be watching TV or listening to the radio either at home RIGHT before they leave to vote (mind you, by the time they get to the polling place the polls will almost be closed, typically) or be listening to the radio or watching TV IN LINE.
3) Be big enough schmucks that they'd decide not to vote because they heard the state called. Mind you, there are other issues on the ballot besides President......
I agree. It would not deter me from voting but I wouldn't let it come to the last minute either.
I will say, however, that people might have been listening to the radio while driving to the polls or may have heard from somebody else while standing in line that a winner had been declared.
But I, too, have problems with the 10,000 figure. It doesn't seem possible to me.
The Florida turnout rate for the state in 1996 was 67.4% In 2000 it was 70.1% (difference of 2.7%. Here is the difference between 1996 and 2000 turnout rates for each county:
Bay 0.0
Calhoun +5.3%
Escambia +1.4%
Gulf +2.3%
Holmes +9.4%
Jackson +4.1%
Okaloosa 0%
Santa Rosa +0.7%
Walton -2.2%
Washington +3.1
Bay, Escambia, Okaloosa, Walton, Jackson, and Santa Rosa are the big counties. If we assume that each of these counties should have had their turnout rate increase with the state average, that will leave us with about 7000 new voters. With a 60/40 split, Bush would have increased his total by about 1400 votes.
Rove's 20,000 is just spin.
Interesting, although I'm not sure I'd want to take statewide numbers as a growth average. Not all parts of a state would grow proportionately.
Good info however.
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