The Successor to Greenspan Has a Very Tough Act to Follow.

NYT ^ | December 6, 2004 | EDMUND L. ANDREWS

[alessandrofiaschi]

The Successor to Greenspan Has a Very Tough Act to Follow

WHEN Alan Greenspan finally retires from the Federal Reserve, will he leave behind any of his DNA? Now in his 18th remarkable year as Fed chairman, the owlish and idiosyncratic Mr. Greenspan is required by law to step down in January 2006. Nominating a successor could be President Bush's biggest economic decision next year, given Mr. Greenspan's mythic reputation as the guardian of price stability and economic growth. A big uncertainty is how any successor will extend Mr. Greenspan's approach to monetary policy, which has been as much an art as a science. Though he is famous for poring over reams of often obscure data, Mr. Greenspan, 78, has been outspoken in his skepticism over econometric models. (...)
"He is very idiosyncratic," said Allen H. Meltzer, professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University and longtime historian of the Federal Reserve. "His greatest weakness is at this point. He had a very successful way of running the Fed, but he doesn't leave a method that somebody else can pick up and carry on." Mr. Greenspan disagrees. Rather than rely on one economic model or another, (...) allowing for a range of economic developments and trying to assess their relative probabilities. (...)
Speculation on who will succeed Mr. Greenspan has focused on Martin S. Feldstein, a prolific author and former adviser to President Reagan who is now a professor at Harvard University and president of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Mass. But a growing number of Republicans say that the top candidate may be R. Glenn Hubbard, 46, who was a chief architect of President Bush's tax cutting packages of 2001 and 2003 and is the dean of Columbia University's School of Business. (...)

[alessandrofiaschi]

Prof. Martin S. Feldstein and Prof. R. Glenn Hubbard: two leading economists for a world-leading Institution.

[Digger]

Next to Cher he is the most overrated.

[ikka]

WHEN Alan Greenspan finally retires from the Federal Reserve, will he leave behind any of his DNA?

Not unless Andrea Mitchell burped before getting out from under his desk....

[JLS]

The successor to Paul Volcker was similarly said to have a tough act to follow. Greenspan now is thought to be as good.

There are plenty of good candidates out there. William Poole might be another academic candidate.

[al baby]

Not unless Andrea Mitchell burped before getting out from under his desk


thanks im going to sleep soon and you leave me with that mental image geesss

[Sonny M]

It should be noted that Paul Krugman was a graduate assistant under Martin S. Feldstein.

It should also be noted that while Feldstein often has written and come across with conservative leanings, however, in practise he moderates alot.

He was one of the people who tried to get Reagan to raise taxes, and while he talks pro-growth, he was a critic of Reagans while he advised him.

Krugman for the most part, often speaks highly of Feldstein at some times (though he critizies him at other times).

[alessandrofiaschi]

Yes, but Martin Feldstein is one of the most hated Economics Professor by demon-rat students in Harvard; this is a good reason to be a great candidate. Besides he is really a leading economist and he supported "Bush I" Plan during this ending mandate. Anyway, there are some monetary economists very skillful for that role. Apart from Glenn Hubbard (who is mostly an expert of taxes and investments, and perhaps too young), I'm thinking to Richard Clarida and Ben Bernanke. Especially Clarida, who campaigned for president Bush re-election without fear and trembling. Another name (but I don't know his political opinions) is William Poole. Let me know.

[Vigilanteman]

You've got it. A list of Greenspan's proud accomplishments would have to include:

1. Crashing the market in 1987 by statements overrating the S&L and BCCI crisis's.
   
2. Sleeping on the job in the 1990's while the dot.com mania was over-hyped.
   
3. Slaughtering a bull market already being corrected in 2000-2001 with a series of ill-timed interest rate hikes to head-off nonexistent inflation.
   
4. The current series of interest rate hikes just as recovery is starting to kick-in when the only inflation is due to energy costs and businesses are already skittish about new investment and new hiring.

On the other hand, he has done a great job of transferring more money from the American worker to the international banksters who, after all, are the constituency he really serves.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

The one person whose macro economic judgement is most to be respected, IMHO, is Jack Kemp. He was terrible as a VP candidate because he wouldn't rumble and wouldn't act as a "white man's lawyer" when white men were under attack - but . . .

Before Jack Kemp Republicans had no sensible economic policy at all; all they did was oppose deficits - and after the Democrats had jacked up spending that merely amounted to a policy of advocating tax increases to cover the deficit.

And after the 1980 election Kemp advocated the selloff of some of the gold in Fort Knox. Over the succeeding years the price of gold declined dramatically as the Reagan-Kemp-Roth economic policy succeeded dramatically.

I doubt he will be considered, but for sure we could do a lot worse. If you restrict your attention to economists, Robert Mundell is top notch. Even if he did win a Nobel prize . . .

[upcountryhorseman]

Alan was once a "gold bug". Now, however, he has enabled
the consumer economy by printing tons of greenbacks and maintaining that inflation is only 2%. (It's more like 8%)