Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
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Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET
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By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer
LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.
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There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.
On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."
The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.
"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.
"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.
Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.
Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.
The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.
Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.
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On the Net:
Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov
Asteroids:
Deadly Impact
National Geographic
the story of another asteroid that can't hit the broad side of a barn:
Space Rock To Hurtle Past Earth
BBC | 01-07-2002
Posted on 01/06/2002 7:20:43 PM PST by blam
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/602916/posts
it's fallen again, to 1 in 6,670 chance.
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
What value would you put under "density"?
the current champ:
2000 SG344
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2000sg344.html
1 in 556 chance cumulative chance of impact; 68 encounters from 2068 to 2101.
The 2004 MN4 data hasn't changed much in a couple of months, although it still has a Torino 1, while 2000 SG344 has Torino 0. :')
You should rent Fooly Cooly.
I don't watch cartoons.
ping with a related topic:
Red Planet's Ancient Equator Located
Scientific American (online) | April 20, 2005 | Sarah Graham
Posted on 04/24/2005 8:18:25 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1390424/posts
"Friday, April 13, 2029
FRiday the 13th :-\
Coincidence 8-?"
Wait a minute!
This is AFTER 2012. George Noory is already terrified that something bad is going to happen in 2012 because the Mayan calendar or something ends in that year. (My own opinion is that the guy who was tapping out the Mayan calendar in stone died, probably from lifting a heavy hammering tool thousands of times.)
Now he's got something else to be terrified about. Poor George. But I guess if what ever it is gets us in 2012, we won't have to worry about the asteroid.
Pretty sure that George will move the date out to 2024 as July 2011 rolls around. ;')
Intereswting, thanks!
Wyn Evans publications at Oxford:
http://xxx.soton.ac.uk/find/astro-ph/1/Evans;Oxford/0/1/0/all/3/0
Man, if it actually hit, that would be so cool!
At first...
How interesting. Where did you read that?
I have a better idea. Let's send up Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck. They could drill into the asteroid, drop in a nuclear bomb....
I better take shower now, then!
You'd think the Moon would be willing to take one for the team!
odds fell a little:
1 in 7,140 chance
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
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