Posted on 12/23/2004 8:24:16 PM PST by hole_n_one
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Thu Dec 23, 5:40 PM ET
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By JOHN ANTCZAK, Associated Press Writer
LOS ANGELES - There's a 1-in-300 chance that a recently discovered asteroid, believed to be about 1,300 feet long, could hit Earth in 2029, a NASA (news - web sites) scientist said Thursday, but he added that the perceived risk probably will be eliminated once astronomers get more detail about its orbit.
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There have been only a limited number of sightings of Asteroid 2004 MN4, which has been given an initial rating of 2 on the 10-point Torino Impact Hazard Scale used by astronomers to predict asteroid or comet impacts, said Donald Yeomans, manager of the Near Earth Object Program at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.
No previously observed asteroid has been graded higher than 1.
On Friday, April 13, 2029, "we can't yet rule out an Earth impact," Yeomans said. "But the impact probability, as we call it, is 300-to-1 against an impact."
The asteroid was discovered in June and rediscovered this month.
"This is not a problem for anyone and it shouldn't be a concern to anyone, but whenever we post one of these things and ... somebody gets ahold of it, it just gets crazy," he said.
"In the unlikely event that it did hit, it would be quite serious. We're talking either a tsunami if it hit in the ocean, which would be likely, or significant ground damage," Yeomans said.
Its estimated size has been inferred from its brightness, which assumes that its reflectivity is similar to other asteroids that have been observed. At about 1,320 feet in length, it would have about 1,600 megatons of energy, Yeomans said.
Asteroid 2004 MN4 takes less than a year to go all the way around the sun and on each orbit it passes by Earth's orbit twice, Yeomans said. It is also nearly on the same plane as Earth's orbit.
The asteroid will be visible for the next several months and the NEO program has alerted its network of ground-based observers to include 2004 MN4 in their searches.
Yeomans said there have now been about 40 observations, first from the observatory at Kitt Peak, near Tucson, Ariz., and this month from Australia and New Zealand.
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On the Net:
Near-Earth Object Program: http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov
This one is too small to be economic.
In 2029 I will be making new friends......every five minutes.
Notice the position of the Moon.
Safely out of harms way.
Actually not. It the GIF propagated for a couple more days, it would intersect the moon's position as well. BTW, did notice the moon bouncing like a buckboard on an unpaved road? If it does hit the moon, there will a most bodacious meteor shower a day or two later.
Right. It isn't the end of the world. But, if it hits, it will wreck a LARGE swath of the planet. Tsar Bomba, the Soviets' 50 megaton monster, would inflict 2nd degree burns out to 100km. This is 30X larger. So, if you don't mind, I'll let you have the front row seats at 100 miles. I'll be at least 500 miles away
BTTT
COINCIDENCE??????????????????????????????????
Torino Impact Scale
http://128.102.32.13/impact/torino.cfm
"Can the Torino Scale value for an object change?
"Yes! It is important to note that the Torino Scale value for any object initially categorized as 1 or greater _will_ change with time. The change will result from improved measurements of the object's orbit showing, most likely in all cases, that the object will indeed miss the Earth. Thus, the most likely outcome for a newly discovered object is that it will ultimately be re-assigned to category 0."
http://128.102.32.13/impact/downloads/categories.txt
UPDATE:
Asteroid 2004 MN4 Torino rating increased to 4
NEO Information Centre
12/25/2004
http://www.nearearthobjects.co.uk/news_display.cfm?code=news_intro&itemID=260
Merry Christmas everyone!
one problem with coverage on this is that those too quick to print some of these past hazardous NEOs got burned by their own sensationalism when subsequent observations showed no problem existed.
AIAA Position Paper on Protecting Earth from Impacts
Article Posted: November 04, 2004
By: David Morrison
http://128.102.32.13/impact/news_detail.cfm?ID=153
Near-Earth Asteroid 2004 MN4 Reaches Highest Score To Date On Hazard Scale
Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
December 23, 2004
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/
[rimshot!]
Let's name it comet "wormwood"
Oh crap! We're all going to die ..... still.
"'The rain will stop.' My first prophecy, and a valid one." -- Criswell
You know the old saying -- despite our best efforts, the mortality rate is still one hundred per cent. :') Merry Christmas.
The Mayan Calender ends December 22, 2012 or thereabouts.
I have seen 2039 mentioned as well but haven;t been able to run that date down for sure. 2029 isn't out of range at all considering. With these near earth asteroid experiences and likelyhood of contact increasing, who knows?
We may be traveling thru a cosmic trail of space debris that is bound to mosey thru our little solar system periodically and reset the place we currently call home when a big one hits .
Or Cataclysmic event(s), e.g. nuclear winter, are likely to be volcanic in nature, due to an irritated earth and unsteady magnetic pole states, not to be confused with blue or red states, mind you. ;-)
We may not actually get the pole flip for a couple thousand more years is what some scientists speculate ,, near term, if the earth starts rumbling and major eruptions occur, we won't have to worry about environmentalists taking over anytime soon which is a silver lining in a way. :-}
OR the Cubs could win the world Series? lol
Merry Christmas!
Thanks for the heads up.
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