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Near-Earth Asteroid 2004 MN4 Reaches Highest Score To Date On Hazard Scale
NASA JPL ^ | December 24, 2004 | Don Yoemans

Posted on 12/24/2004 8:13:41 PM PST by Fitzcarraldo

Near-Earth Asteroid 2004 MN4 Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office December 24, 2004

2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronmers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis (http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk) for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale.

Nevertheless, the odds against impact are still high, about 60 to 1, meaning that there is a better than 98% chance that new data in the coming days, weeks, and months will rule out any possibility of impact in 2029.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: asteroid; asteroid2004mn4; impact
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1 posted on 12/24/2004 8:13:41 PM PST by Fitzcarraldo
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To: Fitzcarraldo

We must learn everything we can about these objects, and take the threat seriously and learn how we can detect and divert them early enough.


2 posted on 12/24/2004 8:17:33 PM PST by Names Ash Housewares
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To: Names Ash Housewares

Naw.... just sit back and relax. Bruce Willis will take care of it.


3 posted on 12/24/2004 8:23:03 PM PST by UCANSEE2 (>The government of our country was meant to be a servant of the people, not a master.)
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To: UCANSEE2

If Bruce Willis is still depending on not 1 but 2 simultaneous Space Shuttle launches, he may want to re-think that plan.


4 posted on 12/24/2004 8:27:42 PM PST by StockAyatollah (Christmas is American culture. Deal with it or move!)
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To: Fitzcarraldo
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

DOOMED!

5 posted on 12/24/2004 8:28:32 PM PST by WideGlide (That light at the end of the tunnel might be a muzzle flash.)
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To: WideGlide


We're doomed. Doomed! DOOMED!!!

6 posted on 12/24/2004 8:30:01 PM PST by Petronski (Don't ask me about my pneumonia...it's making me very cranky.)
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To: UCANSEE2

"Naw.... just sit back and relax. Bruce Willis will take care of it."

My thoughts exactly.


7 posted on 12/24/2004 8:36:46 PM PST by squidward
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To: Fitzcarraldo

An 80% hit probability would be the best thing that could possibly happen to the world economy.

With 25 years to go we could easily develop the technology to divert the threat, and the benefits would be as great as the moon program.

I wonder if we could capture it and make it another satellite? I bet it would be an awesome space station.


8 posted on 12/24/2004 8:38:26 PM PST by CurlyDave
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To: Fitzcarraldo
If there was a certainty this object would collide with earth, I have no confidence anything substantive would get done. Can you imagine the endless debates with politicians, anti-nuke types, environmentalists and other assorted wackos each claiming to have the best solution and being able to agree on nothing until it is too late.

I for one would get right with God and prepare for the end

9 posted on 12/24/2004 8:39:09 PM PST by The Great RJ
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To: Fitzcarraldo
What I want to know, is where would it hit?

Mecca, anyone?
10 posted on 12/24/2004 8:39:58 PM PST by Robert Teesdale
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To: Robert Teesdale

We can only hope.


11 posted on 12/24/2004 8:42:48 PM PST by Bogey78O ("Kill The Tartars on the night of the 15th of the 8th moon")
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To: Robert Teesdale
For that matter, what would the result be if a 167-megaton detonation went off at ground zero in Mecca? Or Beijing?

"The United States announced today that they were unfortunately too busy with domestic matters to address the pending annihilation of the entire Middle East (or Middle Kingdom, take your pick). President Wolfowitz did announce, however, that care packages from America would arrive shortly after the event for any survivors in the region."
12 posted on 12/24/2004 8:42:58 PM PST by Robert Teesdale
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To: Bogey78O
No kidding.

"Sorry, Mullah. Looks like inshalla is the best we can do for ya."
13 posted on 12/24/2004 8:43:53 PM PST by Robert Teesdale
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To: The Great RJ

........... Can you imagine the endless debates with politicians, anti-nuke types, environmentalists and other assorted wackos each claiming ....

Clearly it is Bush's fault, .... and Cheney's and Haliburtons and, of course, Rumsfeld's.
But never fear by 2029 global warming will have melted the ice caps and the higher sea levels will cushion the impact and save the day for everyone except those living on the coasts.
All those coastal red states will be washed out which of course proves it is all Bush's fault..... Ooops that would include Florida ..... never mind.
Well, I should get back to the eggnog .... Merry Christmas to all.


14 posted on 12/24/2004 8:55:45 PM PST by Little John
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To: Fitzcarraldo

Women and minorities will be hardest hit!

(NYAAAAHAHAHA... I'm FIRST with that!!)


15 posted on 12/24/2004 9:02:55 PM PST by fire_eye (Socialism is the opiate of academia.)
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To: Names Ash Housewares

Could they to be surreptitiously diverted just a bit to impact on the hostile states?


16 posted on 12/24/2004 9:03:14 PM PST by GSlob
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To: Fitzcarraldo

Maybe it'll land on North Korea.


17 posted on 12/24/2004 9:08:20 PM PST by Free and Armed
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To: Fitzcarraldo
a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale

A 4 already? It was just a 2 the other day, and at that time was still the highest rating on record. If it hits a 7, I'm moving to another planet.

18 posted on 12/24/2004 9:22:23 PM PST by Enlightiator
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To: CurlyDave

Funny, I had the same thought. Barring a rapid infusion of free enterprise, it will take a threat to spur us on to the stars.


19 posted on 12/24/2004 9:22:28 PM PST by BroncosFan ("If I'm dead, why do I still have to go to the bathroom?" - Thomas Dewey, 1948)
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To: Fitzcarraldo
A one in sixty chance is too close for comfort. A lot can change for better or worse. A tiny change in the predicted orbit can make a big difference (as the astronomers get more measurements and can tweak their calculations of the precicted orbit).

Some people are mocking this like it is an enviromentalist wacko scare story. I guess people can mock astronomy and mathematics and maybe old Newton was a commie subversive, getting people all worked up about invisible things like gravity and doing all that fancy egg-headed stuff with numbers. But maybe, just maybe, objects in space have orbits that can be predicted and maybe a big rock smashing into the Earth is not such a good thing.

But now we can actually have the means to deal with preventing asteroids from hitting the Earth. Some leftists (sadly, probably a majority) won't like it because an asteroid hitting the Earth is a "natural" event -- it is every bit as natural as the snail-darter and STDs. Those who haven't bathed since Woodstock will no doubt object to mankind imposing its will on an asteroid that just happens to be way out there "doing its own thing." Next to them will be some "conservatives" (thankfully a minority) who don't want to spend money on newfangled rockets and who seem to think that Newton's theory of gravity is a bunch of pseudo-science.

20 posted on 12/24/2004 9:30:29 PM PST by Wilhelm Tell (Lurking since 1997!)
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