Posted on 12/27/2004 9:12:32 AM PST by Strategerist
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?2.7e-02
Impact Probability
The calculation of impact probability involves the disciplines of orbital dynamics, estimation theory, and numerical analysis. The orbit of a comet or asteroid is determined from a set of observations (right ascension/declination coordinates). The observations are typically accurate to 0.5 arc-sec, although this can vary somewhat according to the pixel size used in the CCD detectors: some observatories have only 1.0 arc-sec accuracy. Because there are some errors in the observations, there will be uncertainties in the orbital determination for the object. The uncertainty in the orbital elements also depends on the number of observations and the time span over which they are made. The more observations we have, and the longer the time span, the less the uncertainties will be, and the more precise the orbit will become. Thus, for a newly discovered object, the uncertainties tend to be large initially. As more observations are obtained on the object's position, the uncertainties are reduced, and any potential impacts are then eventually eliminated for the vast majority of the cases. See also this animation, courtesy of the Spaceguard Foundation in Italy.
Impact Probability: 2.7e-02
2.700000000% chance of Earth impact
or
1 in 37 chance
or
97.30000000% chance the asteroid will miss the Earth
Remember this is not a world-killer and a tiny asteroid compared to the one believed to have killed off the Dinosaurs.
The energy of impact of this were it to hit the earth is actually LESS than that of the recent Sumatran earthquake.
Small comfort if it hits the roof of my house.
Why not a little asteroid in San Francisco?
Is it going to hit us or not? I hate waiting.
Women, children and minorities to be most affected!
Yep.
Odds of that are pretty slim. 70% of the earth is water. (It would generate a tsunami but I suspect that asteroids convert energy into tsunami less efficiently than earthquakes do.)
Then if it hits land, most of the land on the earth is fairly unpopulated.
It would have a climate effect if it hit land, likely worse than the Tambora eruption in 1815, and cause some pretty serious cooling, but probably not enough to really radically disrupt food supplies and whatnot.
But that chance would be at least 1 to 1000, just based on a glance at a map of the world, and visually comparing the land area of cities to the the total land area of the world. So the total chance of it hitting a city is at least 1 in 37,000 - pretty small.
Arguably 2,000 years after the cruxification, which is ---arguably --- a more relevant anniversary than 2,000 years after His birth.
Although the year 2034 would be more likely, to me.
I suspect that the way the probabilities are now updating it may take weeks or months of observations to get to a definitive miss/hit call.
It will be Bush's fault if it hits. He did nothing to prevent it. Went to war with Iraq vice the unknown asteroids out there, etc, etc, etc.
"97.30000000"
Am I wrong or is there something implausible about 8 decimal places of accuracy for a number that is corrected by about 60% every time new measurements come in?
IT'S BUSH'S FAULT!!!
You headline is misleading. It indicates a 1 in 37 chance of impact in 2029.
According to my reading of the link, it is a 1 in 37 chance of impact in the years 2029 to 2079. The chance for impact in 2029 is probabaly next to nil.
Why San Francisco?
But "big cities" are proportionately "rare" when you look at their total area versus total land mass area (even less when you look at total surface area including bodies of water).
No one would want it to hit anywhere near them, but it is definitely not a "dinosaur killer."
The sky is falling!
Why doesn't NASA have a team forming right this minute to capture this asteroid and force it into either earth or lunar orbit?
This thing has the makings of the most gonzo space station imaginable, a chance to try out the very futuristic techniques of asteriod mining, and an incalculable potential military value.
Plus we have 24 years to get the job done.
Did you adjust for the fact that Christ was born somewhere around 5 B.C., due to a historical calculation error (that wasn't discovered until way too late to adjust)? You'll have to subtract five years or so if you want it to be 2000 calendar years.
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