Posted on 01/18/2005 5:52:12 AM PST by crushkerry
As we mentioned a few days ago Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of knocking off one of the most conservative members of the Senate, Rick Santorum, in 2006.
While a victory here would get the Democrats one step closer to regaining the Senate majority, that goal is likely not going to happen as the overall 2006 Senate matchups once again favors the GOP. However, even if they cannot accomplish this goal the Democrats would be turning cartwheels if they could oust Santorum, viewed by many on the radical left as the poster child for "Jesusland". Beating him would be, on an individual basis, the Republican equivalent of Tom Daschle losing in 2004.
Who will the Democrats tap to take the Santorum challenge? Numbers 1 through 10 on the wish list is Bob Casey, Jr., who this week becomes Pennsylvania’s Treasurer, after 2 terms as Auditor General. In fact Democrats are touting an internal polls showing Casey up 14 points statewide on Santorum. Granted, internal polls (especially those "leaked" publicly) are notoriously unreliable, as is any poll taken nearly 2 years out.
However, the fact remains that Rick Santorum, until recently the darling of many conservatives, (as we will get to below), is going to have to work overtime in order to stay in the Senate and achieve what many say is his goal - becoming Majority Leader of the Senate.
For an early analysis of this potential matchup read below.
No Need to Sing "Getting To Know You". Casey's first, and best advantage is that unlike Santorum's little known 2000 challenger (Ron Klink), Casey has automatic name ID. This is not as much of an "advantage" as it is a leveling of the playing field,. Whereas other potential challengers (other than maybe Joe Hoeffel, who lost badly to Arlen Specter this year) would have to spend months just letting voters know who they are, Casey with automatic name ID. Not only has he run in 4 statewide races, more importantly he is the son of the late 2 term Governor of Pennsylvania, Bob Casey. While the "Casey" surname has lost some of the magic it had a decade or so ago, it still resonates.
Reach Out and Touch a Few MillionAgain, unlike any other potential challengers Casey will not be at a disadvantage when it comes to fundraising, thus blunting another advantage incumbents generally have in these races. Casey raised over $1.3 million in one year for his run at State Treasurer, against a virtually unknown opponent. As Treasurer he will oversee the financial institutions vying for state business, which should make the campaign cash flow even easier. Finally, and most importantly thanks to his father's 5 statewide races, his Rolodex of donors is likely unmatched, even by Santorum. Plus, he's already got an infrastructure in place so he could hit the ground running relatively quickly.
Moonbat Money and the "Demon Factor"Fundraising will be especially easy for Casey if polls show him on top of, or even close to Santorum. Liberal activist groups will likely put aside their differences with Casey's views on abortion and guns and do whatever they can to knock off the man they view as the Devil Incarnate. Needless to say, money will not be an issue, especially among the hate-America Michael Moore wing of the Democratic party who are enraged by Santorum's unapologetic conservatism.
Life and Guns What makes Casey's potential run so intriguing from a bystanders point of view is that he is precisely the kind of candidate centrist Democrats think can turn around their fortunes. Casey, like his father before him, is staunchly pro-life and pro-gun rights. Pennsylvania has been negatively described as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh on opposite sides with "Alabama" in the middle. What elitists mean when they say this is that the are of Pennsylvania knows as "The T" is culturally conservative despite Democrats having a big registration advantage statewide, and even in some "T" counties.
The "T", and southwest Pennsylvania is where Santorum's natural base of support is, and the same would be true in 2006. It is true that many voters in these areas would never vote for anyone who is not pro-life or pro-gun, but Casey has the necessary bona-fides. He is not some "Johnny Come Lately" to these important issues whose views are born out of political expediency. If Casey runs he could easily blunt Santorum's natural advantage in these areas of the state and just might hold Santorum's share of the vote down enough so that the big cities and the RINO southeast will put Casey over the top.
The "Granny" Vote With the life and gun issues off the table Casey's best friend is demographics. Pennsylvania has the 2nd largest senior citizen population in the United States (other than Florida). To many of these seniors (especially those in the more rural "T"), Social Security and other government programs are inviolate. With Santorum likely taking a lead role in the President's attempts to move to personal accounts, expect this to become THE issue Casey hammers day after day. This is especially true because other than the life and gun issue Casey is no different than his father - which is to say he's a big government leftist. Sadly, the senior population subscribes to this notion as well, and Casey's support of these welfare state programs makes him all the more popular.
What's In It For Me? For his entire political life Bob Casey, Jr. has had one goal in mind - the Governor's seat in Pennsylvania. His 2002 attempt was a cataclysmic disaster (more on that below), but he has played the "good soldier" and served his penance like a man. He will likely be in his 2nd term as Treasurer (having run yet again statewide) when Ed Rendell's likely 2nd term comes to an end. Casey is in prime position to make that run. There is little political or financial incentive for him to risk defeat against Santorum. Remember, if he loses he will be have to hit donors up for the 4th time in 6 years when it comes time for him to run for Rendell's seat. Even worse for him might be if he actually beat Santorum. What power is there in being a minority Senator when the President is a Republican? He'd merely be 1 of 100 in the chamber of blowhards, er, the Senate.
The Kid By Himself In the Corner With a Pointy HatHow do we put this nicely? Hmm.. let's just say that when it comes to impressions of they guy, Casey does not exactly remind you of a Rhodes Scholar. In fact, he appears as if he'd be lucky to get the spelling of his name correct.. We don't know if he's as stupid as he appears, but the fact remains that the more you see and hear him the less you think of him. If his last name were "Smith" he'd be lucky to get enough signatures on a nominating position. Fortunately for Rick Santorum, this race will be high profile and force Casey to get out and campaign.
The 2002 Disaster Which brings us to Casey's biggest disadvantage. He is a horrible campaigner. If you want proof take a look at his singularly awful 2002 primary campaign for Governor, which he lost badly to Ed Rendell. In Pennsylvania this was a big shock, because prior to that race any Democratic politician from Philadelphia was considered toxic. That holds double for (Caution: What follows is politically incorrect, but is true) a Jewish politician from Philadelphia.
Yet it seems that Casey somehow managed not only to lose to Rendell, but to lose badly - even in his stronghold of Northeastern Pennsylvania (Casey is from Scranton) in which he had previously been invulnerable. That 2002 primary campaign exposed Casey. For the first time he ran statewide against someone who wasn't a sacrificial lamb and the voters soundly rejected him. We think a big reason was because Casey's vicious negative campaign against Rendell, which did nothing but drive his own negatives up.
Don't get us wrong, negative campaigning can be a great thing, if done the right way. And despite what people may say in polls, they don't despise negative ads, and they are effective in decision making. However, Casey's sin was that not only were his ads particularly vicious, even to political professionals, they never made the case FOR himself. Add to the fact that in Pennsylvania people named "Casey" aren't supposed to be that mean (even though Bob Casey Sr. owed his win to a last minute smear of Bill Scranton, in which they showed a picture of Scranton looking like Charles Manson and saying he was interested in "transcendental meditation").
Ask anyone what Casey stood for in that race and they can't tell you. The reason is that he never had a message other than "I'm not Ed Rendell" To illustrate just how bad Casey's campaign was, consider the fact that at the start of the race Casey led Rendell by 10 points, yet he lost by 12. That doesn't happen by chance.
What Have You Done For Me Lately - Or Ever? While he has held statewide elective office for 8 years (it will be 10 if he runs against Santorum) many Pennsylvanians would be hard pressed to tell you what, if anything, Casey has accomplished. As Auditor General he was basically a watchdog, but a watchdog with very little notice, except when he took on Barbara Hafer, the then-Treasurer, about oversight of the state pension funds. An imporant issue to be sure, but not one that gets you on the front page. As Treasurer, there's not a whole lot he can do to change that.
The Emperor Has No Clothes: Another residual effect of that disastrous campaign is that the Casey mystique was shattered. Perhaps permanently. As further evidence consider the fact that Casey's brother was unsuccessful in 2 straight runs for Congress in heavily Democratic northeastern Pennsylvania.
Do not look too deeply into Casey's most recent trouncing of his GOP candidate for State Treasurer (where he set the record for most votes ever received in Pennsylvania) . She was an unknown pro-choice female from Erie who barely raised enough money to run statewide ad. In fact, Casey did not even run a statewide advertisement. Again, against a nameless, under funded opponent Casey is a lock, but like a career AAA baseball player things really change when he has to go to the big leagues.
The Darling of National (Although Not Pennsylvania) Conservatives: Being a darling of conservatives brings a lot of liberal PAC money to his opponent, but the flip side also holds true. Santorum already has $3 million on hand, and has truly become a national figure. If it looks like he's in trouble, expect outside conservative groups to level the field with the same fervor as the Democratic 527 groups.
The "Jesse Helms" Factor: The last poll taken on Santorum was nearly a year ago, with 52% having a favorable impression of him. While that is an old poll, it does mirror Santorum historic numbers. Those numbers show that Santorum may have a "Jesse Helms" type elections over his lifetime - never running away with a race, but having a core group of supporters that always put him over the top. His favorability may never rise over 51 or 52%, but it's not going to go much below that either. And last we checked, 51% makes you a winner every time. No doubt he is a polarizing figure (Look no further than 2000 when Ron Klink, an unknown from Western Pennsylvania garnered 47% of the vote), but he's shown an impressive ability to mobilize those on his side. Casey will have to work hard to pry those voters away from Santorum, especially because Santorum is now a national figure.
Power of the Purse: Knowing that he would be in a tough fight against Casey the national GOP will have Santorum deeper in pork from Washington than the world's biggest hog farmer. Does this go against everything conservatives like Santorum are supposed to stand for? Yup. But this is hardball politics and expect Rick Santorum to personally be filling every pothole from Beaver Falls to Milford.
The Majority Factor: With 2006 shaping up as tough year for Democratic Senate Candidates, and with the GOP already holding a 5 seat edge, why would voters toss out a national leader to elect someone who will likely spend years in the minority - with no seniority to speak of. Rick Santorum can tell voters that if they elect him they not only have a powerful figure in Washington, but one who can get the President's ear for Pennsylvania if necessary. What will Casey say - "I'll fight for you as the lowest ranking minority member on the Subcommittee on the District of Columbia", or some other worthless position? Power has its privileges, and Santorum could use them to his great advantage, and don't overlook the fact that he's known in Pennsylvania for having some damn fine constituent services.
Payback's A Bitch If Rick Santorum loses in 2006, he can pretty much thank Arlen Specter. Why? Because Santorum's (and President Bush's) vocal and timely support for Arlen Specter against true conservative Pat Toomey a week prior to the 2004 GOP primary was widely credited with allowing Specter to escape by the skin of his teeth (less than 2%). Perhaps if Toomey was not close, Santorum's actions could be forgiven. However, Pennsylvania conservatives have longed hated (yes, hated) Arlen Specter and Toomey, who had as an impressive a grassroots operation as Pennsylvania has ever seen, nearly toppled him. Just when the brouhaha was seeming to die down, Arlen, as usual put his foot in his mouth about judicial appointments, basically spitting in the President and Santorum's face.
Unfortunately for Santorum some of his biggest supporters were also Pat Toomey supporters, and viewed Santorum's actions as nothing less than a betrayal (which would not necessarily be a wrong statement). Those rifts still have not fully healed, and may never heal. This is doubly true if Casey runs. Many of those Toomey voters would have a clean conscious voting for Casey who shares their views on social issues. Speaking personally, I follow politics a great deal and could never vote for Casey. But I was one of those diehard Toomey supporters who will never quite look at Santorum the same way again. I think he's going to regret that picture of him with Arlen Specter and the President a week before the 2004 GOP primary.
The Double Edged Sword Surely Santorum is counting on Arlen Specter to repay him in 2006, but as stated above Santorum could easily lose thousands of conservative votes, either to Casey or to apathy, if Arlen Specter sets foot anywhere outside of Philadelphia or the surrounding counties. If Casey were smart he'd make sure a conservative 3rd party protest candidate got on the ballot whose sole purpose it would be to morph Rick Santorum to Arlen Specter, but only in the "T". Either that, or do some political "black ops" and have a Santorum "supporter" going all over the "T" saying how good of friends Arlen Specter is with Rick Santorum.
The Calendar The election calendar also hurts Santorum. Ed Rendell, who is very popular despite not having an impressive record as Governor to date (except of course that he's a huge Eagles fan), especially in Philadelphia and the RINO southeast. At this time the GOP has no credible challengers to Rendell, and there does not appear anyone on the horizon that will be anything other than a sacrificial lamb. Thus, many non-ideological GOP voters may not have as big a motivation to come out as do the Democrats, and you can bet that Rendell will turn out the Democratic vote in Philly (where turnout is often 101% in many districts, and being dead is not a bar to voting several times). Further, other than 1998, Presidential 2nd term mid-year elections have generally favored the party opposite of the President. But George Bush famously reversed a similar trend in 2002, so we don't know if this "rule" holds any longer.
RINO Season Also harming Santorum is that in the RINO southeast (home of "soccer moms" and "country club Republicans") he is viewed as someone with 2 heads. His admirable and steadfast defense of life, especially on the partial birth abortion issue, does not play well here. While he and Casey have the same views on the issue, Casey is not viewed by these folks as a zealot on the issue. Plus, Rendell for whatever reason is a bit of "rock star" down there and Casey can expect to get some rub from that.
All in all it would be foolish to make a call this early in the game. Hell, Casey's not even in the race, and in the end we don't think he will be. Count on a left-wing nut like Joe Hoeffel or Allyson Schwartz to answer the call if Casey declines. While Santorum should have no trouble beating either of those whackos, it won't be near as much fun, from a political perspective, to watch as would a Casey/Santorum matchup.
Ping
It's obvious Hitlery is not just satisfied with Rick losing the race. She wants to completely anihilate him. And she is the person that some people want to see in office. My question is have they completely lost their minds? I bet they have never considered that if she will do it to one person; why not them and she would. What sort of sadistic and sick person would want to lose their freedom? Hitlery would make sure of this. BTW, I don't believe her to be all powerful; but she has got some powerful anti-americans behind her.
How very sad.
There is also a Philadelphia university professor who has been raising money since last summer to run against Santorum. I don't think he has a chance. Running Casey is a lot smarter. I would have probably voted for Casey instead of Specter, but I would never vote for Casey over Santorum.
casey got the most votes of any politician in pennsylvania history this past november. he even won many bush counties in central pa. if he does run, it will be a tough reelection bid for santorum.
how does this article have anything to do with hillary?
Cogent analysis, as always...re "payback"..should Toomey endorse Santorum, and campaign for him...that's off the table, right?
The DemocRATS haven't given Casey nor his late father the time of day since his father was denied the priviledge of addressing the 1992 DemocRAT convention due to his anti-abortion positions. Sounds like the DemocRATS are desperate.
A little bit yes. But make no mistake, even if Toomey is on board, some of his supporters won't be.
I mention that in the article, but explain whynot to be too excited about that.
I'm not so sure that Casey would be able to raise so much money if he ran for the Senate. Pennsylvania liberals hated Santorum when he ran for reelection in 2000, and they still wouldn't give a dime to Congressman Ron Klink because he was pro-life and pro-gun.
I also think that RINOs and Rendellicans would vote for Santorum over Casey, just like they voted for Santorum over Klink. While RINOs disagree with Santorum on social issues, they agree with him on economic issues, and they disagree with Casey on everything under the sun. In fact, Casey's father never ran well in the Philly suburbs. In his first gubernatorial bid in 1986 (against William Scranton III), Casey, Sr. won statewide with 50.69% of the vote, but his percentages in the Philly suburbs were pitiful: 39.59% in Bucks County, 39.50% in Delaware County and 33.69% in Montgomery County (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/gov/PaGov1986.html ). And in his reelection bid in 1990, Casey, Sr. beat then-Republican Barbara Hafer with a whopping 67.65% of the vote, yet his percentages in the Philly suburbs were much lower: 58.58% in Bucks, 54.82% in Delco and 49.84% in Montco (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/gov/PaGov1990.html ). Santorum, on the other hand, has always run very strongly in the Philly suburbs, running well ahead of GOP presidential candidates. In 2000, Santorum got 57.09% in Bucks County, 54.15% in Delaware County and 54.43% in Montgomery County (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/sen/PaSen2000.html ), in each case over 10% higher than Bush's 46.29% in Bucks, 42.66% in Delaware and 43.81% in Montco (source: http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/index.html ). Admittedly, that was against Congressman Ron Klink, a socially conservative, economically liberal Democrat from Western PA. But in 1994, against Harris Wofford, who was not only a socially liberal Senate incumbent but also a Philly-area suburbanite, Santorum got 52.35% in Bucks, 52.70% in Delco and 50.49% in Montco (source: http://wilkes1.wilkes.edu/~wesp1/sen/PaSen1994.html ).
What do you think Bush could have done differently to get more votes out of the Philly suburbs? He was only short 144,248 statewide. Yet Bush couldn't seem to duplicate Santorum's appeal although, you would think, their policies are pretty much the same.
"What do you think Bush could have done differently to get more votes out of the Philly suburbs? He was only short 144,248 statewide. Yet Bush couldn't seem to duplicate Santorum's appeal although, you would think, their policies are pretty much the same."
I also was a diehard Toomey/Santorum supporter and will never look at Rick the same way again. I think if Santorum really wants us true conservatives to return to him, he needs to do an all out mea culpa campaign. He needs to send all of Toomey's supporters a letter expressing his poor judgement, telling us he sorely underestimated our numbers. And then he needs to do some penance at small Pro-Life group regional meetings across the state expressing his apologies, and giving witness outside abortion mills. Then he needs to go on EWTN and any other Christian program that will take him and do the same thing all over again. I really believe that's the only way Santorum can win us back.
I agree.
"I also was a diehard Toomey/Santorum supporter and will never look at Rick the same way again. I think if Santorum really wants us true conservatives to return to him, he needs to do an all out mea culpa campaign."
alos = also
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