The tories aren't using Iraq as a major policy platform like Schroeder in Germany did.
No, but that will be the perception to the outside world and more importantly to the terrorists.
On surface objection to the war wasn't the main reason Spain overthrew Azner's party. The government fumbled initial public response and the electorate voted in Zapatero, where before they were going to side with Aznar's successor.
How did the rest of the world view the election? As appeasement to the terrorists and Zapatero rewarded that belief.
In Australia the main argument wasn't the Iraq war, though his opponent was very against it. If Howard has lost, how do you believe the rest of the world would have seen the election? As a referendum on economic and social policy, or a referemdum on the Iraq war?
I guarentee if Blair loses it will be seen as a referendum on Iraq, the WOT and it will not matter if another in country issue dominated the election.