Posted on 03/13/2005 11:45:08 AM PST by NormsRevenge
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) - Senior Bush administration officials have warned in recent weeks that al-Qaida is regrouping for another massive attack, its agents bent on acquiring nuclear, chemical or biological weapons in a nightmare scenario that could dwarf the horror of Sept. 11.
But in Pakistan and Afghanistan - where Osama bin Laden and his chief deputy are believed to be hiding - intelligence agents, politicians and a top U.S. general paint a different picture.
They say a relentless military crackdown, the arrests last summer of several men allegedly involved in plans to launch attacks on U.S. financial institutions, and the killing in September of a top Pakistani al-Qaida suspect wanted in a number of attacks - including the 2002 killing of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl and two failed assassination attempts against President Gen. Pervez Musharraf - have effectively decapitated al-Qaida.
Pakistani intelligence agents told The Associated Press that it has been months since they picked up any "chatter" from suspected al-Qaida men, and longer still since they received any specific intelligence on the whereabouts of bin Laden or any plans to launch a specific attack
They say the trail of the world's most wanted man - long-since gone cold - has turned icier than the frigid winter snows that blanket the mountains between Pakistan and Afghanistan, where the terror mastermind is considered most likely to be hiding.
Pakistani officials have been quick to hail the long silence as a signal that it has already dismantled bin Laden's network, at least in this part of the world.
"We have broken the back of al-Qaida," Interior Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao said last month in a speech in Peshawar, the capital of the frontier province on the border with Afghanistan. Musharraf added last week that his government had "eliminated the terrorist centers" in the Waziristan tribal region and elsewhere.
"We have broken their communication system. We have destroyed their sanctuaries," the president told reporters. "They are not in a position to move in vehicles. They are unable to contact their people. They are on the run."
A senior official in Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency told AP he couldn't remember the last time the agency got a strong lead on top-level al-Qaida fighters.
"Last year, we frequently heard Arabs on radios talking about their hatred for (Afghan President Hamid) Karzai and Musharraf for supporting Americans, and we were able to trace al-Qaida hideouts in South Waziristan," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Lately, such conversations have decreased."
Pakistan's optimism seems to be backed by senior U.S. military officials in the region.
Maj. Gen. Eric Olson, the No. 2 American commander in Afghanistan, said he had seen nothing to indicate that al-Qaida was attempting to get its hands on nuclear or biological weapons.
There is "no evidence that they're trying to acquire a terrorist weapon of that type and, frankly, I don't believe that they are regrouping," he told AP in a Feb. 25 interview.
"I think the pressure on them here, the pressure on them in Pakistan, the pressure on them in Iraq, is pretty great and it makes very difficult for them to operate," Olson added.
The skeptical assessments from officials here fly in the face of warnings out of Washington, where President Bush is pushing Congress to approve a $419 billion defense budget for 2006.
The Homeland Security Department late last month issued a classified bulletin to officials that bin Laden was enlisting his top operative in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, to plan potential attacks on the United States.
There have also long been fears - though no evidence to date - that rogue Pakistani nuclear scientists might have provided bin Laden's men with the know-how to build a crude atomic device or dirty bomb.
Newly installed CIA director Porter Goss and other senior American intelligence and military officials warned last month that terrorists are preparing for new strikes.
"It may be only a matter of time before al-Qaida or other groups attempt to use chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons," Goss said at the Senate Intelligence Committee's annual hearing on threats, urging approval of the defense budget.
But Sherpao scoffed at such warnings.
"That is simply out of the question," he said of al-Qaida's ability to acquire weapons of mass destruction, adding that any al-Qaida leader who has escaped arrest was "more worried about their own safety."
"How can such people launch attacks with nuclear or chemical weapons?" he asked.
Maj. Gen. Olson, who leaves Afghanistan next month to return to the 25th Infantry Division back in Hawaii, said al-Qaida leaders were unable to use modern communications for fear of detection and were reduced to "16th century" techniques such as couriers. He said he wasn't discouraged by the success bin Laden and his deputy have had in releasing audio and videotapes filled with threats during the past few months.
"They can deliver all the videotapes they want, as long as they're not delivering weapons that can kill large numbers of people and I am convinced that their ability to coordinate large attacks like that is severely disrupted right now because of the pressure we have on them," he said.
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Associated Press writers Munir Ahmad in Islamabad, Pakistan, Zarar Khan in Karachi and Stephen Graham in Orgun, Afghanistan contributed to this report.
My son is in that mix of men and equipment. Stay alert, guys.
maybe they are losing it, maybe they are regrouping. Maybe they are having issues in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but this is a worldwide terror org. We must not let our guard down.
I had meant to ask you were your son ended up. Now I don't have to ask the question.
Hope everyone over there stays safe!!!
"We're number one" loses some of its psychological impact under those conditions.
Worth repeating.
Stay alert, guys.
Thanx. It's been a very severe winter in A-Stan. Before the meet their replacements, they are still conducting patrols and delivering tons of school and other supplies to all the districts of Zobul Province. He sent some pics the other day and I just love to look at the faces of the Afghan people.
They are constantly getting intell. One thing is certain, the warlords still control much of SE A-Stan. Of course that different than AQ.
While I would like to believe what the general has to say, I think a lot of it is wishful thinking because they have not caught him.
Diminishing is good. But only "dead" means the war is over.
Regards, Ivan
God it would be something else if a freepers son iced Osama.
No attacks in the US since 9/11.
Osama et al reduced to a VIDEO TAPE prior to the 2004 election.
The facts speak for themselves, but work remains. It will ALWAYS remain.
I think he has harbored those thoughts and I've told him to, "just calm down!"
He has an Infantry Platoon with the 25th I D and he's very proud of them.
Impossible. Everyone knows that al Qaeda recruiting has skyrocketed since Bush invaded Iraq.
Keep stacking them up till they don't exist.
What he is doing is vital for this country's safety and for the world.
For a picture of these butchers and their intent see this:
thanks. Here is an edited email he sent about 10 days ago:
Things are starting to wind down for us here. Talking about redeployment back to hawaii has gotten everyone excited about getting back. There is so much stuff to do you can't even imagine. I remember redeploying back from Kosovo and it was a pain in the ass. All the property handover, inventories, and inspections; sometimes it makes me wish we could go back to just doing combat missions. We are still doing those by the way. We won't stop until the day we move back to KAF. Our tentative date for that is . . . . From there we will conduct final equipment inspections and turn-in and catch a C-130 back to Manus AFB, Kyrgzstan. I should be back in time for . . . . birthday on the . . th. It's hard to concentrate on the mission when all this preparation is going on. Our S2 keeps getting word of
a spring offensive against us. The winter was horrible not only for us but for the enemy as well. They are eager to come back at us with . . . . .. My platoon is doing well. It sounds corny but I feel honored to have led them.
While the Taliban has slowed the past couple of months, we have concentrated on humanitarian missions. It comes to no surprise but we can do that and drive on with our regular missions, too. The UN and all the other organizations get the aid here in country, but do not have the capacity or security to deliver it evenly to the people. We have distributed thousands of tons of food and school supplies to all the districts in our province (Zabul). The people are generous and welcome us wherever we go. Things are looking up for the people but we definitely cannot stop now. ok that is all for now i will give you an update later. love, . . .
Thanks for sharing that with us....
That has to be one of the stupidest comments regarding Al Qaeda I've seen in quite a while.
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