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Thanks for your reply. You raise a lot of interesting questions that requires a lot longer than I have now to answer. But let me at least say that I fully agree with you on most points, and then let me give you a few quick comments:

It seems to me that Europe has gone quite mad.

Yes, at least our political class. Basically the EU and its consequences are too difficult for them to understand, and then they do what comes easiest, acquiesce.

I think you can get a feeling for what is really going on by reading the exchange between myself and fdsa2in this thread:

The EU constitution: a guide to its key features

If you look at my response #64 you'll see that you are not the only one who is afraid that this will lead to a bloody conflict...

BTW, do you really thing that the French will vote it down. I find that hard to believe. Even if they want to vote it out, I would expect massive vote fraud.

Michael Portillo wrote in the Times (27/3) that on the eve of the Maastricht referendum in France the British government was notified by their French counterparts only minutes after the polls had been closed with the news that the Yes had won by 51-49. He remembers that many of the ministers exchanged knowing looks. A result that close cannot be known with certainty until most of the votes have been counted...

However, if the polls will continue to show the No side in the lead by more than 10% I don't think it will be possible to cheat.

So what will the do? In a previous thread I wrote this:

1) The Eurocrats pretend nothing has happened; many of the laws included in the "Constitution" have already been passed, and so they just push on. However, they will run the risk that a new Eurosceptic government in Britain will call their bluff.

2) There will be a core-EU consisting of Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg and maybe Italy and possibly Holland (but the Dutch will surely vote no if the French already have done so, so I'm not so sure they will follow their big neighbours any longer). The rest of the EU will "regress" (in my way progress) into a free trade area.

3) Chirac will claim that the vote is nil and void, since the participation was below (chose a suitable percentage) or for some other reason. This has worked in the past, but I think there may be a revolt in France and elsewhere if they try this trick again.

#1 is definitely the most likely, #3 I don't believe in if the polls are right. However, as I've also written before, it may be that Chirac, after a huge NON, will turn into a "nationalist" to protect his own hide. This may go together with #2. The anglo-saxons and the pesky Scandinavians will be thrown out, and only those Med and Eastern countries that are sure to follow the French lead, and won't be too much of an economic burden will be let in.

Of course I think this is the best possible solution. It can still create a lot of problems, but the risks are probably less than with a large EU that eventually will have to find an external enemy (and we know who that will be!) to keep the people(s) in line.