Posted on 04/30/2005 9:12:29 AM PDT by SierraWasp
Arnold's retreats threaten his agenda
By Harrison Sheppard Sacramento Bureau
Saturday, April 30, 2005 - SACRAMENTO -- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's retreat on his redistricting plan jeopardizes his entire reform agenda, as well as his plan for a special election, analysts say.
Schwarzenegger had already decided to postpone pension reform until next year, then this week softened his stance on redistricting, saying it does not necessarily have to happen by 2006 as he first demanded.
But political observers say another retreat could make Schwarzenegger look particularly weak even as his popularity numbers are sagging.
"I don't know that he can afford not to push it at this point in time," said political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe of the University of Southern California.
"If these stumbles continue, if he has to blink a whole lot more and the great action hero continues to morph into the not-quite-professional politician, that could be a danger. It may not happen ... but it's clear that the bloom is off the rose."
Only a week earlier, Schwarzenegger had stepped up his calls for immediate redistricting, telling a town-hall audience in Roseville: "The people that created the mess are the same people that are still there and they want to keep the mess.
"They want to keep the status quo. I say no, let's change it right now. This is a big problem that we have and we've got to address it right now. Let's not wait till next year."
But on Wednesday at another town-hall event, Schwarzenegger said he didn't care whether it happened in 2006, 2008 or 2010, as long as it eventually got done.
Democrats say the governor's redistricting proposal has not moved forward because it is flawed. The main sticking point has been the speed with which Schwarzenegger wants to implement the plan.
At a recent legislative hearing, several Democrats as well as expert witnesses said implementing a new district map by 2006, as Schwarzenegger has proposed, would be nearly impossible from a logistical standpoint and might be blocked by a court because it would be based on outdated demographic information from the 2000 census.
Assemblyman Tom Umberg, D-Anaheim, who chairs the Assembly committee that is examining the governor's proposal, said he is open to revamping the way California draws its district lines but that the governor's proposal should not be rushed onto the ballot this year.
"The challenge we have right now is, I believe, most Democrats think we really need accurate data," Umberg said.
"And that means either a (new) census or waiting till 2010. If we're waiting till 2010, I'm not sure this is an imperative in 2005."
And he added, it is no surprise that the governor is impatient with the Legislature, because he demonstrated impatience even before he formally introduced the final version of his plan.
There are two slightly varying versions of Schwarzenegger's plan, one contained in a legislative bill written by Assembly Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, and one in a ballot measure authored by activist Ted Costa now being circulated for signatures.
Both proposals, in essence, call for a panel of retired judges to draw the boundaries for congressional, state Senate, Assembly and Board of Equalization districts in California.
Tony Quinn, a redistricting expert who helped draw district lines as a Republican Assembly staffer in the 1980s, said the Costa version has several flaws that could prevent it from gaining public support or even passing legal muster.
For example, he said, when the new lines are drafted, they have to be approved by a public vote, meaning they can be subject to political manipulation by special interests with large amounts of campaign cash.
Also, he said, there is no guarantee that the judges will remain objective in choosing the lines, especially judges who are chosen by legislators. Additionally, there is a constitutional argument that states that the data for a 2008 redistricting would be so out of date from the 2000 census that it would be invalid.
"I think it would be fairly easy for the Democrats or whomever to block a redistricting in 2008 on data that was that old," Quinn said. "Maybe a judge would rule that they could do it, but I just doubt it.
"You have civil-rights issues, you have (demographic) changes within the state. It would be too easy for a judge to say this data is too old for new districts, wait until 2010."
A mid-decade redistricting would also lead to confusion as voters could find themselves in four different districts over a 12-year period, he noted.
Schwarzenegger spokeswoman Margita Thompson said the governor and his staff continue to meet with Democrats over the issue, but there has been little forward progress. While Schwarzenegger would rather work with the Legislature to craft a measure for the ballot, he is still fully prepared to circumvent Sacramento and take the ballot measure directly to the public, Thompson said.
"He would prefer for the legislative leadership to be engaged but at the same time he knows if the Legislature doesn't act, the people will," she said.
"They showed they would act in (the 2003 recall). That's when they entered this partnership with the governor, and he's going to rely on them if the Legislature doesn't act."
yep....it's a perfect example of why when you are out on a boat you should never wrap the anchor line around your ankle. That's what the CRP did with Arnold and he has since thrown himself overboard.
Arnold, STAND YOUR GROUND. ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IS KILLING THIS STATE.
YOU WILL APPEAR WEAK THE THE DEMS IF YOU KEEP BACKING DOWN.
The message of the historic Recall was made into a mockery of total insincerity to the unprecedented problems that were and are still unresolved, in general!!!
The horrific truth is... Although no one would have believed there could have been a fate worse than a continued Gray Davis administration, that very fate is developing before our astonished eyes!!!
But you knew that already, didn't you? Of course you did!!!
Oh yeah, I almost forgot: WE TOLD YOU SO.
He's a socialist/environmentalist democrap with an R behind his name.
It ain't.
The naysayers should know better by now.
He is a coward! A girlie-man!
Let's hope the moderate wing of the CA GOP finally folds like a cheap tent in a light breeze.
The GOP leadership is already of no relevance when it comes to much of anything as they represent a few folks who country clubbers who think Pro-LIfe is a cereal.
Yeah. Let's just wait until 2010. Yep. That'll solve everything. /sarcasm>
You got that right.
Go gather signatures to qualify an initiative for the next election cycle. Go gather signatures to recall the Austrian. Volunteer to become an illegal immigration vigilante. Cause discomfort in public places by railing against the illegal immigrant in front of you at the grocery store who uses food stamps to purchase her food. Raise a stink when your child is displaced at school by an anchor baby.
Here's one from just this morning. Call Cingular wireless and point out their complicity in these matters as they hype the availability of "Spanish" ring tones for their handsets.
Time to build the mass and get the Federal government moving on it. Per the constitution, it's the Fed's job. Schwarzenegger was right to speak out on the matter. I hope others follow suit.
Yes! You are right!! Still he speaks out correctly on yet another issue that he's unwilling to do anything about unless it can be done easily and swiftly!!!
Proving to many current and former Republicans that he's no more than the worst sort of cheap opportunist! Does he really believe the power of his personality alone can actually move CA to be governed effectively?
More importantly, do those of you that voted for and support him???
He's not going to make it if that's what both you and he believes!!!
The thrust of the tread is in the article title... "retreats threaten!" (that's what I'm sticking with)
This exposes a real dirth of leadership skills! You don't fire up the folks at one townhall meeting in Roseville in the morning and then say this silly sapping comment later the same day at another townhall meeting!!!
He's damning himself and the CA Repubs with his own duplicitious remarks and any day now, he's gonna look back and NOBODY will be following... NOBODY AT ALL!!!
He can't hear you... He's listening too hard to Maria to hear you!!!
What ARE you talking about?
Usually one can rely on the "powers that be" in the Repub organization to be grooming such potential leadership, but right now it doesn't look like they're doing a danged thing except swooning over Schwarznegger who hasn't totally committed to even running next time!!!
Usually one can rely on the "business community" to be grooming such potential leadership...
All the old "standby" support groups seem to be out of business and I think Conservative Californians should organize and straighten this mess out!!! An "Independent Expenditure Committee" can be a most influential force for either good, or evil!
I'm looking for something I can support, that will find someone I can support in good conscience! Arnold just ain't it for this California Conservative!!! If the Republicans can't/won't do it... I'll find or help organize a group that can/will!!!
It's quite CLEAR what I'm talking about!!! You read it! You copied it! You replied to it! And you understood it, along with everything in the painfully honest article!!!
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