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To: fieldmarshaldj; Dan from Michigan

Great info, DJ!

In 2002, Conyers' district (now the 14th) got half of Dearborn and also extended all the way Downriver to Grosse Ile. http://www.michigan.gov/documents/Congress_14_30530_7.pdf
Kilpatrick's CD (now the 13th) took the Gorsse Pointes and Harper Woods and extended Downriver until just north of Grosse Ile (Wyandotte). http://www.michigan.gov/documents/Congress_13_30528_7.pdf
Knollenberg's new 9th CD was placed entirely within Oakland County, and many of Knollenberg's NW Wayne suburbs, along with some of Rivers', were included in the new 11th CD (half of which is in Oakland), where McCotter won. http://www.michigan.gov/documents/Congress_11_30523_7.pdf
Dingell lost many of his Downriver precincts, and his district (now the 15th) extended to Ann Arbor, and of course he beat Rivers in the primary. http://www.michigan.gov/documents/Congress_15_30533_7.pdf

As I've written before, I think the GOP could have done an even better job at redistricting. First of all, instead of adding the Grosse Pointes and working-class white Downriver townships to the two black-majority districts, they could have added the two Ypsilantis, Superior, Romulus, and Inkster to Kilpatrick's CD (making it well over 60% black) and most of Southfield plus the other black parts of Oakland to Conyers' CD (making it well over 70% black). Dingell could have gotten a district encompassing Dearborn, the white Downriver towns that are heavily Democrat, Democrat parts of Monroe, and Ann Arbor, and Rivers probably wouldn't have even tried to run in such a district, 65% of which had been represented by Dingell. Republican parts of Monroe could then be added to Smith's 7th CD in order to make it more Republican.

The Grosse Pointes could have been connected to eastern Macomb and Rochester, Rochester Hills, Troy and Clawson in Oakland to make a suburban, comfortably Republican (53% for Bush in 2000) district for Candice Miller centered around her hometown of Harrison. This would allow a separate comfortably Republican (53% for Bush in 2000) Thumb district to be drawn comprising Huron, Sanilac, Tuscola, Lapeer, St. Clair, northern Macomb and northern Oakland, as well as a few townships in Saginaw and Genesee and one township in Bay. Knollenberg could have been given a district similar to the one from the 1990s, but comfortably Republican (53% for Bush in 2000), which would exclude heavily Jewish and Democrat eastern West Bloomfield and heavily black and Democrat Pontiac. Pontiac and esatern West Bloomfield would join white Democrat parts of south Oakland, SW Macomb and NNW Wayne in an overwhelmingly Democrat district where Sander Levin would almost certainly win. Some of western Oakland and NW Wayne would be appended to Livingston and parts of the Ingham, Eaton and and Clinton counties to create a comfortably Republican (53% for Bush in 2000) district for Rogers. Lansing and East Lansing would be removed from Rogers' and Smith's CDs and attached (by a sliver of towns) to Bay City, Saginaw, Flint and other heavily Democrat areas to form an overwhelmingly Democrat district where conservative Democrat Jim Barcia would have had the edge.

Smith's 7th CD would be made more Republican (53% for Bush in 2000) by also taking out Battle Creek, and moving the CD north. Upton's CD would be made comfortably Republican (54% for Bush in 2000) by taking out Kalamazoo City and adding most of Allegan County, although it would have to take in Battle Creek. K-zoo City would be attached to most of Kent County for a still very Republican CD for Ehlers (over 56% for Bush in 2000). Hoekstra's CD would exclude most of Allegan County and add several Dem-leaning counties from Camp's 4th CD and would remain a heavily GOP district (like 58% for Bush in 2000). Camp's CD would take in part of Kent County and surrounding Dutch areas and even with parts of Barcia's CD added it would still be comfortably Republican (over 54% for Bush in 2000). Finally, Democrat Stupak's 1st CD would be extended a bit south and would be about as Republican as before (around 54% for Bush in 2000), making it winnable in the short-run and a likely GOP pick-up when he retired.

Had the GOP adopted a plan like the one I described, it would have created 9 safe Republican districts, 5 safe Democrat districts and 1 district that would be very competitive as long as the incumbent Democrat ran but would probably go Republican when he retired. This would be a far better plan than the one adopted by the GOP, which also created 5 safe Democrat seats, but gives the Democrats takeover opportunities in the Knollenberg (just 51% for Bush in 2000), McCotter (51%), Smith (51%), Upton (52%), and Rogers (52%), and which gave Stupak a district that is safe for him and very competitive for a Democrat when he retires (52% for Bush in 2000).


20 posted on 06/17/2005 1:57:25 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
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To: AuH2ORepublican
Your maps sound much better than the current ones. The state senate maps are worse and we may lose it next year if the dems have a good year. I hope to God we keep the State Senate and State House for 2010, since the democrats would be looking to carve up Livingston or put us with all of Washtenaw where we'd be outvoted by Ann Arbor/Ypsi.

D1 and D9 - Unfortunatly, the Knollenberg seat is almost like the Stupak seat. Bush won it by only 5000, and both sides have a good farm club (David Woodward, Gary Peters, we have Rocky, Mark Shulman and Mike Bishop) there for when he retires. We have Tom Casperson who is a strong candidate for the Stupak seat. They have 3 yooper reps and an Alpena Rep. The incumbent parties in those two seats are much stronger locally than nationally as well? Those two are the easiest pickup chances IF opened.

D11 - McCotter's district scares me. The dems had internal fighting over this spot in 2002, and sent a sac lamb in 2004 which shocked me. There's always been labor tendancies in the Wayne County part of this seat. Redford is no longer a swing area and is now reliably democrat due to migration and unions. Dearborn Heights may be going down that same road. They may be the next Westland. If Livonia takes a blue shift, we're in big trouble. Westland, Garden City, Wayne, and Van Buren have been solid dem for years. Canton and Plymouth City has been too close for comfort the past three elections. Only Plymouth and Northville Twps(with Livonia a leaner) have been solid in Wayne for us. Luckily, McCotter has some of the best parts of Oakland in his district with Novi and Commerce, as well as Milford and South Lyon which is more like Livingston County in politics.

D7 - The Schwarz/Smith seat scares me only if one of the Spades(Doug or Dudley) or Mark Schauer runs. That said Schwarz hasn't been as antagonistic to conservatives as a congressman as he was in the State Senate. He may get primaried. For the dem to win, Calhoun can't be close, and the Washtenaw burbs, Eaton, and Lenawee would have to flip. Jackson would have to be close as well.

D8 - The Rogers seat isn't going to be taken over for a long time. Lansing doesn't have the population growth to keep up, and Livingston County's growth and greater red shift is putting it out of reach unless we throw up a pro-choicer and/or anti-gunner to replace Rogers. Shiawassee is taking a right turn, and Clinton(Alan Cropsey land) and Livingston aren't voting for dems for federal office anytime soon. Ingham would have to singlehandedly carry it, and not even Byrum did that in 2000. There are also at least 5 strong republicans who could take this seat rather easily, and only two democrats I can think of who would give us a real headache.

21 posted on 06/17/2005 2:45:32 PM PDT by Dan from Michigan (Defeat Stabenow in 06!!!!)
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