The Silver Lining in Iran

NY Times ^ | June 30, 2005 | Abbas Milani

[F14 Pilot]

THE hottest book in Iran these days is Bill Clinton's "My Life." There are three unauthorized translations on the market and at least two more on the way, Iranian newspapers report. By all accounts, a George W. Bush memoir might do just as well. And that is only the most recent indication of the overwhelmingly favorable disposition of the Iranian population toward the United States.

The same newspapers that reported the Clinton book sales last weekend also covered, with much fanfare, President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's defiant attitude toward the United States at his first press conference, on Sunday. Mr. Ahmadinejad stepped on a painting of the American flag as he went to vote. He dismissed the idea that Iran needed to build any relationship with the United States and vowed to continue Iran's nuclear program, which Washington opposes. As for the haughty Europeans, Mr. Ahmadinejad proclaimed, they must leave their ivory towers and speak to the Iranians as equals.

In fact, it is Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a cabal of conservative mullahs and Revolutionary Guards who have absconded to ivory towers with their dogma and greed for power. Ignoring serious signs of crisis, they masterminded Mr. Ahmadinejad's victory. According to three of Mr. Ahmadinejad's opponents, members of the Revolutionary Guards and the basij militia, who together number in the millions, were told whom to vote for and to bring up to 10 family members along with them to the polls. The same sources allege that millions of dollars from public coffers were distributed among militia members in order to bring out the hard-line vote.

Nevertheless, contrary to the common perception, this election is not so much a sign of the Iranian system's strength as of its weakness.

[F14 Pilot]

Abbas Milani is director of the Iranian studies program at Stanford and co-director of the Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institution.