Posted on 07/27/2005 6:45:03 AM PDT by areafiftyone
Iraq’s transitional prime minister called today for a speedy withdrawal of US troops and the top US commander in Iraq said he believed a “fairly substantial” pullout could begin next spring and summer.
Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari said at a joint news conference with US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that the time has arrived to plan a co-ordinated transition from American to Iraqi military control throughout the country.
Gen George Casey, the top American commander in Iraq, told US reporters travelling with Rumsfeld that he believed a US troop withdrawal could begin by spring 2006 if progress continues on the political front and if the insurgency does not expand.
Rumsfeld, however when asked how soon a US withdrawal should happen, said no exact timetable had been set. “But we confirm and we desire speed in that regard,” he said. “And this fast pace has two aspects.”
First, there must be a quickening of the pace of US training of Iraqi security forces, and second there must be closely co-ordinated planning between the US-led military coalition and the emerging Iraq government on a security transition, al-Jaafari said.
“We do not want to be surprised by a withdrawal that is not in connection with our Iraqi timing,” al-Jaafari said.
Forecasts by both al-Jaafari and Casey, however, were conditional on curbing the insurgency, which US military officials have said is showing no signs of abating.
The US military has in the past signalled a readiness to draw down troop strength, only to change plans in the face of relentless insurgent attacks.
Rumsfeld was planning to get a first-hand look at the training of Iraqi security forces by watching a demonstration by a group of Iraqi special forces soldiers using live ammunition at a training range run by American troops.
US officials describe a variety of security forces being developed. Foremost is the Iraqi army, comprised mainly of infantry battalions, although there also are to be four tank battalions. The army now has about 77,000 soldiers, and it is scheduled to expand to about 85,000 by December. It includes “intervention forces,” to lead the Iraqi effort against the insurgency.
There are now about 94,000 police, most for standard traffic and patrol work. That is to grow to about 145,000 by December, and it includes “special police” commando battalions as well as a mechanised police brigade that will be a paramilitary, counterinsurgency unit intended to deploy to high-risk areas using light armoured personnel carriers.
Sounds good.
So Iraq can plunge even faster into civil war fomented by Iran and Syria.
Yup...good call.
Actually it sounds good to me as long as the Iraqi troops are ready!
My guess is that a long term US presence there will keep that from happening. Something along the lines of the Koreas or cold war Europe.
For good or ill we are going to be there for years. The Iraqi troops seem mostly ready to stand down, get killed or run to the other side.
Germany, Korea, Japan - once we win a war we don't cut and run.
The wild card is the Sunnis. If they join in, the remaining foreigners will become corpses quickly. If they fight, they will face a genocide, brought on by their own leaders.
"The wild card is the Sunnis. If they join in, the remaining foreigners will become corpses quickly. If they fight, they will face a genocide, brought on by their own leaders."
I second your thoughts. A lot of the human rights stuff our guys have been stressing during the many phase training programs, e.g. depends on who is being trained for what type duties, will be put aside. The government will make it clear anyone harboring any form of resistance is part of the resistance and is fair game. They are not going to shi* around.
One thing. Please folks. Let us remember. We must build up their armored capabilities, e.g. fast recon light armor units. And we must further build up their budding airforce, both in transport capabilities (C130's etc.) and in chopper and other aircraft for ground air support. This is all an ongoing process we often do not hear much about. But it truly is essential. Bottom line is we must make sure they can handle things once we start to pull out. Please, it is not a "I told you so", but many of us have been stressing for some time, that the time frames are really in line with what had been hoped for a few years back. I could not find a definitive article one of our freepers challenged me on, and he let me off the hook about a month and a half ago, but I made the statement, and it is true, Lord be my judge on it, that the Marines all along had scheduled the 2MEF to take over in early 2005. So two years back just on this one fact, it should be clear we had planned on being in Iraq at least through the end of 2005 range.
I think you will see all Coalition troops out of Iraq by the end of 2007 at the latest. I predict half will be gone by the end of next year.
The Sunnis don't want us there period. The Shiites do not really trust us and the Kurds want us out of the way so they can reclaim Kirkuk and Mosul from the Sunnis without interference from us.
Plus, there is some truth to the idea that the presence of Coalition troops is a magnet for jihadists. Without us psychos from Algeria, Egypt, etc. will be less inclined to make the long journey.
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