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A "fairly substantial" withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq could take place next spring or summer if the insurgency doesn't grow and the country's political process continues as scheduled, the commander of coalition forces said here today. U.S. Army Gen. George W. Casey, head of Multinational Force Iraq, spoke during a surprise visit to Iraq by Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.

At a later joint news conference with Rumsfeld, Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari said the departure of U.S. forces from his country depends on how soon Iraq can train, equip and field its own soldiers and police to take over security duties. "We do not want to be surprised," Jaafari said, if U.S. troops leave before the Iraqis are prepared to assume security.