WSJ: Avian Virus Caused The 1918 Pandemic, New Studies Show

Wall Street Journal ^ | October 6, 2005 | BETSY MCKAY

[SunkenCiv]

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[RFEngineer]

“Seems like every year we get dire warnings about the possibility of a virulent flu outbreak; how it’s just around the corner. When it happens we’ll know about it. I just don’t quite understand why the CDC, for example, issues these alarmist sounding pronouncements and scares people”

This is the first law of bureaucracy in play: “Don’t screw up” You see this in predictions of all sorts from the government.

Take the weather service - Do you ever wonder why we get predictions of “above average” for Hurricane activity? Well what would happen if they said “below average” and we had average, or above average numbers of hurricanes?

The second law of bureaucracy also applies: “If you know, say so, if you don’t say you do emphatically”

The CDC has no idea how bad the next flu season will be - like the weather service, they can only tell you when the storm is about to hit.

[metmom]

But if you cry wolf often enough, people will stop believing you.

Hurricane Katrina and Ike were a good examples of how people lose trust in the government when hit with dire warnings all the time. They become apathetic.

So far no pandemic and it’s been three and a half years since this thread was posted.

[Hoodat]

Avian virus? And all this time I thought it was Bush’s fault.

[RFEngineer]

“But if you cry wolf often enough, people will stop believing you.”

But nobody in the bureaucracy can be blamed when the worst happens - in fact, they can then apply for MORE funding for outreach and research.

You need to think like a bureaucrat. They serve to perpetuate the bureaucracy first and foremost.