If some foreigners believe that China can have nice smooth transition to more transparent and representative government, and their Chinese business operations weather this period without much complication, they are dreaming.
Ping!
....If some foreigners believe that China can have nice smooth transition to more transparent and representative government, and their Chinese business operations weather this period without much complication, they are dreaming.....
The extremes are an angry bloody revolution and a kumbaya love fest. Neither will happen. The communists will be gradually made meaningless as the transformation takes place. The people will exert pressure but will not make big waves.
There can be great argument and disagreement about the size and number of the bumps in the road but there can be no argument about the journey. It is underway. it will take a long time.
Well, there is a lot of dreaming going on. Our government and corporate policies are a clear indication of that.
Seems pretty optimistic to me. The primary thrust of the unrest in China is that the peasants don't like the capitalistic changes that are being implemented by Beijing.
Seems to be a busy day for Chinese news.
ping
Foreign investors in China may well find, to their dismay, that the first act of a democratic government is to seize their investments, perhaps on the ground that they were helping the present regime.
Based on the title, though, I don't know. Communists are butchers and we support them too much.
We have been what has propped them up politically since Kissinger was SoS and we have not changed policy at all.
He has predicted the demise of the communist regime for one simple reason. Automobiles!, (actually Democracy throught Capitalism). Under the "Old" communist regime your could not leave your neighborhood except to go to work. Other travel had to be approved by the political leader of your block who would issue you a travel permit. Today China is the second largest importer of oil to fuel their industries AND their auto fleet.
With autos comes the freedom to travel and travel permits become obsolete. As income levels have risen the demand for SUVs have increased. Ed Wallace's prediction that Democracy will replace the current government structure is coming to pass.
China is, as I am sure you know, an extremely complex place. Minority groups, especially Moslems and Tibetans in the west, will take advantage of any weakening in the government to push for independence. Rural areas are poor and view the world through an entirely different lens than the new capitalists of the eastern metropolises.
I don't think anyone can accurately predict what will happen when the communist regime falls. There are just too many forces at work, operating in different directions. A bumpy ride is an understatement, in my opinion.
1989 saw the demise of the regime based upon people power, the effects of engagement and move toward market capitalism etc...
Everything that was supposed to happen did happen.
But, the regime used its military to massacre unarmed citizens.
All the scenarios and speculations put forth here about how China will transform happened and we saw the response.
A democratic republic is just around the corner! The first step of the long journey has been taken.
No more tyranny for these patriots! No sir!
Party ideologues joyfully jump aside and let the Party wither away -- "We don't care about Marx and Mao, regional and world power -- we just loooooooooove to make cheap goods for our friends in America. We are grateful to American corporations. Soon we will all be middle class, buy all things for our homes, bowl, vote, and stuff like that. Thank you, Americans!"
(Keep that free tradin' transfer of technology, wealth, and production flowing, guys. I think we got 'em.)
They can demand accountability all they want...but as long as the government controls the media, their access to the Internet, has all the guns, and doesn't even allow a fart without a 10-year plan, I think it's a bit pollyannic to claim the people are going to "rise up" at all.
All this historical background (the usual "this emperor ruled with an iron fist but was then pushed out...in 1895") is interesting but I don't see what it really has to do with where China is going in the 21st century and the price of tea. "People power"? What's so new about that? The Chinese armed forces are going to determine the future of the country unless other somewhat organized masses of officially Chinese people in various parts of what we call China get their hands on some guns.
American politicians on both sides will tell you that China will evolve into a peace loving nation.
Hey, it happened in the USSR....