Posted on 10/17/2005 7:04:44 PM PDT by FairOpinion
STANFORD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 17, 2005--A Stanford University-Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks (S-H-KN) online survey shows two of the statewide ballot propositions backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in a statistical dead heat.
Prop. 74 (Teacher Tenure) and Prop. 77 (Redistricting) both split likely California voters right down the middle.
Another Schwarzenegger initiative, Prop. 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits), is trailing by a wide margin, with 70% of likely California voters saying they will vote against it.
Prop. 75 (Public Employee Union Dues), endorsed by the Governor, currently has a commanding majority, with 70% of likely voters saying they will vote in favor.
While the current numbers are generally consistent with other recent surveys conducted by the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute of California, the S-H-KN survey indicates that support for both Proposition 74 and Proposition 77 is higher than previously reported. In the S-H-KN poll respondents view a facsimile of the actual ballot on their computer screens and make yes or no vote decisions just as they will do in the upcoming special election. No undecided option is offered, although survey respondents can choose not to vote on a proposition just as voters can in the election. Consistent with S-H-KN polling in the 2003 recall election (see www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp for all materials related to this press release), this methodology resulted in far fewer undecided responses than telephone surveying.
The survey also tracked how the other four initiatives on the November ballot are faring.
Prop. 73 (Parental Notification) is currently leading by a margin of 54% to 46%, but this margin is within sampling error of the survey. The competing prescription drug price initiatives both enjoy majority support at this time.
Prop. 79, the initiative backed by consumer advocacy groups and unions, is leading 58% to 42%. The initiative sponsored by pharmaceutical companies, Prop. 78, has a similar level of support, with 59% of likely voters in favor, and 41% opposed. If both propositions pass, the one receiving the most votes becomes law, so the outcome here is highly uncertain.
In contrast, Prop. 80, the final statewide initiative to appear on the November ballot (Electric Service Providers Regulation), currently trails by a wide margin. The poll finds that only 37% of likely voters are currently in favor, with 63% opposed.
This survey is the first of two planned online surveys. A second poll will be conducted at the end of October, in the final weeks preceding the election on November 8.
Survey Methodology
The S-H-KN poll is based on 1006 interviews conducted between October 7 and October 12 with 459 respondents considered to be likely voters. The survey was conducted by Knowledge Networks of Menlo Park, jointly funded by Stanford's Institute for Research in the Social Sciences (IRiSS) and the Hoover Institution, and designed by Professors David Brady, Morris Fiorina and Jon Krosnick, and Ph.D. candidate Laura Miller. For more detailed poll results and information on the methodology, see the appendix at: http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp.
According to J. Michael Dennis, vice president and managing director at Knowledge Networks, the poll was administered to a random sample of California adults who are members of a national "web-enabled panel" -- created and maintained by Knowledge Networks -- that is designed to be representative of the U.S. population.
Initially, participants were chosen scientifically by a random selection of household telephone numbers. Individuals in selected households were then contacted by telephone and invited to participate in the research panel.
Those who agreed to participate were sent an Internet appliance and received an Internet service connection provided by Knowledge Networks. Others who already had home-based computers and Internet service were permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists received unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and were sent e-mails three to four times a month inviting them to participate in research. For the recall election surveys, Knowledge Networks randomly selects adult panelists in California.
This is really bad news, if true.
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"Prop. 79, the initiative backed by consumer advocacy groups and unions, is leading 58% to 42%. The initiative sponsored by pharmaceutical companies, Prop. 78, has a similar level of support, with 59% of likely voters in favor, and 41% opposed. If both propositions pass, the one receiving the most votes becomes law, so the outcome here is highly uncertain. "
Since proposition 79 is terrible, and whichever of prop 78 or 79 gets the most votes will become operational, and they are passing by about the same margin, it is important to vote NO on 79 and YES on 78, else we are highly likely to end up with 79. Arnold, and the Republican party recommend Yes on 78, NO on 79. THe very reason 78 was put on the ballot, was to try to avoid ending up with 79. McClintock recommends voting against both, in principle. In Principle I agree, BUT here again, there seem to be plenty of people voting for 79, and if we vote NO on both, we are not helping 78 get more votes, than 79, and we'll end up with 79.
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McClintock's recommendations for CA Propositions
Summary of Recommendations on the CA Propositions by various organizations and parties
Fortunately, Prop 75 has the greater importance strategically. Once 75 passes, getting replacements of 74 and 76 passed should become significately easier (assuming one or both lose this time around).
Polls are simply mechanism for people, with way too much time on their hands, to attempt to influence the outcome of elections.
The one poll that counts occurs on election eve.
Vote your conscience regardless of the opinion of others. The method is traditionally more accurate than polls AND you can trust it.
ITS AN ONLINE POLL!!!
Remember how the MSM polls predicted the recall election so well.
It'd be great if the one about union spending of member dues on politics were to pass.
"Race Too Close to Call for Two Schwarzenegger Propositions"
Then let's wait until the vote is in. HmmmMMMMMMM
When it comes to elections you can never rest.
We need to get 77 passed. 75 combined with 77 will reshape California, no longer will ultra liberal nutjobs rule Sactown.
"The S-H-KN poll is based on 1006 interviews conducted between October 7 and October 12 with 459 respondents considered to be likely voters. The survey was conducted by Knowledge Networks of Menlo Park, jointly funded by Stanford's Institute for Research in the Social Sciences (IRiSS) and the Hoover Institution, and designed by Professors David Brady, Morris Fiorina and Jon Krosnick, and Ph.D. candidate Laura Miller. For more detailed poll results and information on the methodology, see the appendix at: http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp"
Quick question for anyone who lives in LA county, when you registered to vote did they send you a confirmation mail? I re-registered when I moved from out of county but I never got any confirmation. I'm just hoping the liberals at city hall didn't pull a fast one and throw out all the Republican registrations.
If you didn't receive a sample ballot and Official Voter Guide you'd better check with your local elections office ... soon.
Okay thanks for the heads up, I'll call these bozos tomorrow.
They don't send you a confirmation mail, but they send you a sample ballot.
You can call the Registrar of Voters and they can look it up to see if they have you on their list and whether you should have received a ballot by now, or whether they are about to send one out to you.
You can register until Oct. 24th to vote in the Nov. 8 election.
http://www.lavote.net/voter/voter_reg.htm
Registration-by-mail forms may be requested during regular business hours by calling the Election Information Section in Norwalk, or district offices, or the Voter Registration Request Line (800) 481-VOTE (8683), which is operational 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
Or their main page:
http://www.lavote.net/
http://lavote.net/voter/voter_reg.htm
You may request that an Affidavit of Registration be mailed to you by calling the Registrar of Voters' general information telephone numbers: (562) 466-1310 or (800) 481-VOTE, 24 hours a day;
Throwing out all the republican votes is what the demos do.
The dems and unions are sweating now that their scam is coming to an end in California.
You know when Kerry actually crawls out from under his rock, you know the dems are in trouble.
Yes, both Kerry and Dean were trying to rally the Democrats against Arnold's reform propositions.
What margin do these propositions need to pass, majority or some kind of super majority (2/3 et al)?
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