http://www.yeson77.com/
Posted on 10/18/2005 6:12:45 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
SACRAMENTO — Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's redistricting initiative in the upcoming special election would create some closer races — even in the populous Bay Area and Los Angeles Democratic strongholds — but would not shift decisive power to Republicans, a new report will show today. The study by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley is foreshadowed in research papers obtained by the Oakland Tribune and roughly matches previous findings by institutes at Claremont McKenna College and the University of Southern California.
In a study of one East Bay legislative seat, currently held by Sen. Liz Figueroa, D-Fremont, undergraduate researcher Miguel Manriquez concluded that Schwarzenegger's reapportionment proposal would "not threaten the Democratic seat in (the East Bay's) Senate District 10."
"It may have more of an effect inland where there are more conservatives, but Los Angeles and the Bay Area are significantly Democratic and there would not be much of a threat to Democratic safety in these regions," he concludes.
Competitive boost
The Republican governor's initiative, Proposition 77 on the Nov. 8 special election ballot, would create a panel of retired judges to draw district lines for congressional, Assembly and Senate seats, rather than have the Democrat-dominated Legislature draw the lines.
Then the new lines would be taken before voters.
The Rose Institute at Claremont McKenna College, which has prepared GOP-supported redistricting plans in the past, recently concluded that Proposition 77 would lead to seven competitive Assembly districts, eight competitive state Senate districts and 10 competitive congressional districts.
The USC California Policy Institute reached a similar conclusion about competition.
In the 1990s, California had more than 50 legislative and congressional districts out of 153 that could be remotely described as competitive; that number has dropped to about 30.
Researchers believe Proposition 77 would boost that number back into the 50s.
California's current political maps are the product of a 2001 deal made by Democratic and Republican lawmakers to ensure easy re-election for incumbents.
Bruce Cain, who as head of the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley oversaw the report due for release today, has concluded that the Rose Institute's numbers appear to be reasonable, based on his own research.
"Their numbers are an estimate; all our numbers are an estimate, but they're perfectly sensible," Cain told McClatchy News Service.
Don't expect a shake-up
Proposition 77 could even boost competitiveness around the edges of the Bay Area, such as in the southern Peninsula's 21st Assembly District, now held by Sen. Joe Simitian, D-Palo Alto, according to Berkeley researchers.
But despite the predicted increase in competitiveness, experts caution against expecting a dramatic shakeup of political power.
In Sacramento, Democrats are firmly in control of the Legislature and are expected to remain dominant in this Democratic-leaning state.
Supporters of Proposition 77 say it would bring much-needed reform, while opponents say it is unfair and unworkable.
On Monday, the two sides withheld judgment of the Berkeley study until its formal release today.
Whether it has any effect on results or not is irrelevant.
Not that I would put it past the manipulators to use undergraduate "researchers" to cook the procedural books to persuade the ignorant, the uninformed, that redistricting is not really a pressing or substantive issue.
The IGS at Berkeley maintains the State Redistricting Database, so they probably know what they're talking about.
Granted, they should know what they're talking about, but given past performance in the political arena, anything is possible.
Killing off strong conservative districts?
Just listened to David Horowitz on KSFO
Do we really want Don PeRATa or his ilk appointing the Republican selection of a Judge to serve as part of the panel?
Perata and Nunez get to choose. Ain't that sweet? Guess what party the two legislative reps on the Judicial Council are from? Yep. You guessed it. (Joe Dunn and Dave Jones). I'm voting with Horowitz. You read his rant, right?
See: http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2005/10/9/215046.shtml
Look at all the RINOs, Dems and liberal groups lining up to support it. Below are some supporters listed in one of the articles posted here recently. Who's next? Arianna?
• Steve Poizner, named by Schwarzenegger to lead the Proposition 77 campaign
• John McCain, Republican Senator, Arizona
• Leon Panetta, former Democratic congressman and former chief of staff to President Clinton
• Joe Canciamilla, Democrat Assemblyman from Pittsburg
• Reed Hastings, Democrat, Netflix founder and former state Board of Education leader, (has given more than $400,000 to the pro-77 campaign).
• Al Checchi, former Democratic gubernatorial candidate
• Richard C. Atkinson, Democratic, former University of California president
• Frank Jordan, Democratic, former mayor of San Francisco
• Tom McEnery, former mayor of San Jose
• Common Cause
• California Public Interest Research Group -CAPIRG
• TheRestofUs.org.
Some Pubbie incumbents want to keep their seats safe and don't mind being a permanent minority in Sacramento. No thanks. I'm backing 77.
http://www.yeson77.com/
Did you notice the caption? Nothing like Poizner using this campaign to launch his IC campaign, huh? I didn't think they allowed that.
Paid for by Redistrict California - Yes on 77 with major funding provided by A.G. Spanos and STEVE POIZNER FOR INSURANCE COMMISSIONER.
Did you notice the caption? Nothing like Poizner using this campaign to launch his IC campaign, huh? I didn't think they allowed that.
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Who's gonna do anything about it anyway?
They muzzled the FPPC, ;-). They may as well just euthanize it.
Good point. I guess law enforcement only applies to us 'little people.'
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