Field Poll: No side leads Yes side on all four of the propositions backed by Governor Schwarzenegger

Field.com ^ | 11/01/05 | Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

[NormsRevenge]

SurveyUSA has a better track record of recent too, the PPIC and Field have much less so.. 1 week to go.

[Cedric]

The Field Poll did a great job in the recall election, just ask Governor Bustamante.

[drjimmy]

The Field Poll did a great job in the recall election, just ask Governor Bustamante.

You keep digging yourself deeper in the hole. Here's the final Field Poll released before the recall election:

DAVIS’S RECALL SUPPORTED BY BIG MARGIN. SCHWARZENEGGER WELL AHEAD OF BUSTAMANTE IN REPLACEMENT ELECTION
With a week to go before California voters decide whether Governor Gray Davis should be removed from office, and if so, who should replace him, The Field Poll in its final interviewing period (Sept. 29 – Oct. 1) finds that
• Likely voters are now disposed to vote Yes on the Davis recall by a 57% to 39% margin. This compares to a 53% Yes and 43% No margin of support found in the poll’s Sept. 25 – 28 interviewing period, and 55% Yes and 40% No result in early September.
• Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger has opened up a ten-point lead over Lt. Governor Cruz Bustamante in the election to replace Davis, should the Governor be recalled. Schwarzenegger is now preferred by 36% of likely voters and Bustamante by 26%. In the poll’s Sept. 25 – 28 interviewing period, the race was a dead heat, with 31% favoring Bustamante and 30% favoring Schwarzenegger. In early September, Bustamante held a slight lead over the actor, 32% to 27%.

[AmishDude]

What's this "initially" business?

[newzjunkey]

Looks bizarre and makes me suspect this was just to grab headlines while the full poll might say something more revealing. I haven't checked that myself yet. We just had another poll posted yesterday saying 3 of the 4 were ahead.

The key is most definitely turn-out.

[Simmy2.5]

Agreed. Right now, all the polls are litterally all over the place. Of course, the only poll that matters is next weeks. And again, the key...is turnout.

[newzjunkey]

Cinnamon Girl, I feel exactly as you do.

I looked at the full polling info. The trends moved to the NO position and women, nonpartisan and union households are more likely to oppose if the Governor campaigns for the proposition.

This poll tells me the YEAR of slander against Arnold financed by union dues and member special assessments has WON.

This mammoth disparity in spending is why Arnold was upset over Bush coming to CA for money ahead of the election.

RECALL IS DEAD. REFORM IS DEAD. CALIFORNIA IS DEAD.

If this poll reflects the results next Tuesday, I don't know how we take back the state from the extremists and the corrupt.

[newzjunkey]

A dead body could've told you Boxer and Kerry were going to win big in CA. The Prop info, however, is more disturbing and suggests doom next week if we don't get out the vote.

[newzjunkey]

Right now the only hope I see is the wildly inconsistent polling from one firm to another.

We were trampled in the funding race because of the union's ability to draw from a limitless source: their members own paychecks.

The key here is turnout since we had no hope of countering all the lies.

[hsalaw]

"the Field Poll called last year's California results for president and senator pretty correctly"

Well, hey; that's a real recommendation. How could anyone NOT call California's results for president and senators?We're not a dem-dominated state for nothing. Sheesh.

[drjimmy]

Well, hey; that's a real recommendation. How could anyone NOT call California's results for president and senators?We're not a dem-dominated state for nothing. Sheesh.

Sheesh, indeed. I see that you ignored what I pointed out concerning the Field Poll results for Propositions 71, 72, and 66 as well as the Davis recall and Schwarzenegger victory. And contrary to the claim of anti-conservative bias, the Field Poll actually understated the size of the ultimate Kerry and Boxer wins. But hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good rant.

[68 grunt]

... This poll tells me the YEAR of slander against Arnold financed by union dues and member special assessments has WON

Assisted by our own ilk, of course ...

[hsalaw]

"But hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good rant."

I never have, and see no reason to start now.

[FairOpinion]

Polls Show Contrasting Results For Gov.'s Propositions (CA)

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1513769/posts


A new Field Poll shows all four of the governor's propositions failing.

But a Stanford University - Hoover Institution Knowledge Networks poll shows three of four initiatives passing.

On Proposition 75, the Stanford poll shows 64 percent support restricting use of union dues in campaigns, while the Field Poll shows just 40 percent in favor.

The Stanford poll shows 45 percent supporting Proposition 76, while the Field Poll shows just 32 percent supporting the governor's budget reform effort.

[RogerWilko]

The Survey USA Poll had them all winning.

They DID have them all winning, now THREE are losing, and the other ones have all tightened up BIGTIME!!

1 Asked of 1957 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.3%

First, Proposition 73. Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?

55% Yes

44% No

2% Undecided

2 Asked of 1966 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.3%

Next, Proposition 74. Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?

49% Yes

50% No

1% Undecided

3 Asked of 1959 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.3%

Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?

50% Yes

49% No

2% Undecided

4 Asked of 629 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4%

(PROPOSITION 76 VERSION A, ORIGINAL SURVEYUSA SUMMARY, INCLUDES TRACKING GRAPHS FROM PREVIOUS RELEASES): Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

49% Yes

49% No

2% Undecided

5 Asked of 650 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.9%

(PROPOSITION 76 VERSION B, EXPANDED SURVEYUSA SUMMARY, NO TRACKING DATA AVAILABLE): Next, Proposition 76.

Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. The Governor would be granted new authority to reduce state spending during certain fiscal situations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

42% Yes

56% No

2% Undecided

6 Asked of 670 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%

(PROPOSITION 76 VERSION C: FURTHER EXPANDED SURVEYUSA SUMMARY, NO TRACKING DATA AVAILABLE):

Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. The Governor would be granted new authority to reduce state spending, including school funding, during certain fiscal situations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

36% Yes

61% No

2% Undecided

7 Asked of 1948 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 2.3%

Finally, Proposition 77. Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?

44% Yes

53% No

3% Undecided

x Complete Interactive Crosstabs i Statement of Methodology ! © 2005 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations

SURVEY RESULTS

I guess it goes to show you how many people make their voting decisions by watching TV commercials! We've been get BOMBARDED on how bad ALL these props are! Idiots better open their DAMN voting guides and read something!

[Names Ash Housewares]

Dang. Gonna be a real battle. If two of four pass Ill consider that a big change for the better in California.