LA Times
Posted on 11/01/2005 6:38:12 AM PST by NormsRevenge
NO side leads YES side on all four of the propositions backed by Governor Schwarzenegger.
Between the period October 18-30, The Field Poll conducted two separate, back-to-back statewide surveys of likely voters in the upcoming special election. The first was completed October 18-24, while the second was completed October 25-30.
This report covers the survey’s findings for five of the initiatives – Prop. 74 (Public School Teacher Tenure); Prop 75 (Public Employee Union Dues); Proposition 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits); Prop. 77 (Redistricting); and Prop. 80 (Electric Service Providers Regulation).
A companion report to be released tomorrow will deal with voter reactions toward three health-related initiatives – Prop. 73, the parental notification of teen abortion initiative, and Props. 78 and 79, the two prescription drug discount measures.
In each polling period, voters were first asked whether they had seen or heard anything about each initiative and voters who were already familiar with each initiative were asked for their initial reaction to it prior to being read a summary of its official ballot description. Following this, all voters regardless of their prior awareness were asked how they intended to vote after being read a summary of its official ballot label.
The results show that large majorities now report being familiar with most of the initiatives, and that in the poll’s final interviewing wave the NO side was prevailing in all five of the propositions, including the four backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The Field Poll #2174 Tuesday, November 1, 2005 Page 2
High voter awareness on most initiatives; aware voters more predisposed to vote NO than YES on each initiative.
The sample of likely voters interviewed in each survey wave were first asked the extent to which they had seen or heard anything about each of the initiatives. The level of expressed awareness was extremely high with regard to four of the five initiatives. In the survey’s final interviewing period 93% said they were familiar with Prop. 75, 88% had heard of Prop. 74, 81% were aware of Prop 76, and 76% had some prior knowledge of Prop. 77. By contrast, just 50% were familiar with Prop. 80.
Voters who reported some prior awareness of an initiative were then asked, without any further prompting, whether they were inclined to support or oppose it.
Results from the survey’s final interviewing wave show the following initial predispositions among those voters already familiar with each initiative (prior to being read its official ballot summary):
• Among the 88% of voters familiar with Prop. 74, 44% were initially opposed, 34% were in favor and 10% were undecided.
• Among the 93% of likely voters aware of Prop. 75, 46% were initially predisposed to vote NO, 29% were in favor and 18% were undecided.
• Among the 81% of voters with some prior knowledge of Prop. 76, 40% initially reported being opposed, 27% were inclined to support it and 14% were undecided.
• With regard to the 76% of likely voters familiar with Prop. 77, 36% were predisposed to vote NO, 31% indicated their initial support and 9% were undecided.
• Among the 50% of voters with some prior awareness of Prop. 80, 23% were initially opposed, 13% said they were inclined to support it and 14% were undecided.
PDF file of poll #2174
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2174.pdf
LIKELY voters...
I wonder how they figured out which people were likely voters?
They can not rely upon "voted in the last 3 elections" or something as simple as that. This is a special election and the number of voters is going to be extremely low.
If the Californians turn down those Propositions they deserve what they will get which is more of the same thing that is bankrupting them and destroying them with liberalism.
Here's how they sampled..
Information About The Survey
Sample Details
The late October survey findings in this report are based on two separate statewide surveys conducted among random samples of likely voters in California’s upcoming statewide special election. Interviewing for the first survey spanned the period October 18-24, 2005, while data collection for the second survey was completed October 25-30, 2005.
A total of 1,074 California adults were reached and screened by telephone in English and Spanish during the first survey, of whom 506 were considered likely voters in the statewide special election. For the second survey a total of 1,214 California adults were reached and screened in English and Spanish, of whom 581 were considered likely voters.
"... of whom 506 were considered likely voters..."
They don't provide the criteria for which the persons were deemed "likely voters" and I think this is where the fly is in the ointment.
In the back of the poll pdf file, there are charts with more info on the breakdown of those sampled on the props...
The Field Poll is always wrong {anti-Republican/Conservative bias}.
Poll: Voters turned off to gov's message and his ballot measures
http://www.bakersfield.com/state_wire/story/5664407p-5682165c.html
By TOM CHORNEAU, Associated Press Writer
SACRAMENTO (AP) - Voters are inclined to oppose all four ballot measures supported by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, and the more the governor campaigns for the propositions, the less voters seem willing to support them, according to a new statewide poll.
The Field Poll released Tuesday shows momentum moving against Schwarzenegger with just a week to go before the Nov. 8 election.
"The story is not a good one for the governor," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. "There seems to be a common thread across all the proposition - if Arnold Schwarzenegger has endorsed it, Democrats and nonpartisans are reacting negatively and by turning off those two groups, it has made things very difficult for the governor."
Todd Harris, spokesman for Schwarzenegger's California Recovery Team, said the governor's private polling shows a far closer race on the initiatives and that Schwarzenegger is still a convincing spokesman.
"Our internal data paints a very different picture," Harris said. "We also continue to believe that Gov. Schwarzenegger is our best messenger for the reform message and that is evidenced by the fact that we have him playing a prominent role on TV ads."
A poll released last week from the Public Policy Institute of California showed similar findings as the Field Poll. The Public Policy poll found none of his four measures had support of a majority of voters while two were opposed by wide margins.
Because of the intense media campaign being put on by both sides, DiCamillo said pollsters took special care to isolate any shift in voter attitudes during the closing days. Toward that end, the Field Poll conducted two separate surveys - one between Oct. 18-24 and a second from Oct. 25-30.
The findings showed a general trend against the governor's agenda.
Proposition 74, for instance, which would lengthen the probationary term of new school teachers, was supported by 44 percent of likely voters in the first survey with 47 percent opposed and 9 percent undecided. In the second poll, support remained the same while opposition had grown to 50 percent with 6 percent undecided.
The same was true for Proposition 75, which would restrict the use of union dues for political purposes. In the first poll, 44 percent of voters supported the measure, 45 percent were opposed and 11 percent undecided. A week later support had fallen to 40 percent, with 50 percent opposed and 10 percent undecided.
Opposition has also increased against Proposition 77, which would strip the Legislature of its authority for drawing Congressional and legislative districts. In the first poll 38 percent favored the idea, 41 percent opposed it and 21 percent were undecided; by the second week support had fallen to 35 percent with 51 percent opposed and 14 percent undecided.
Both polls found a big majority opposed Proposition 76, which would impose a cap on state spending and give the governor new powers to cut funding without legislative approval. Thirty-two percent supported it, 60 percent are opposed and 8 percent undecided in the most recent survey. And most voters were also opposed to Proposition 80, which would re-regulate energy producers - 24 percent were in favor, 48 percent opposed and 28 percent undecided in the latest survey.
DiCamillo said they also asked voters if they were more inclined to vote yes or inclined to vote no on a measure that had been endorsed by the governor. They found 69 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of nonpartisans said they would vote no on a measure endorsed by Schwarzenegger.
"He's just not the right spokesman when it comes to communicating with Democrats and independents right now," DiCamillo said. "That's contrasted with a year ago when he was considered a very credible spokesman and had very high approval ratings."
The two polls were based on random telephone interviews with 300 likely voters. They each had a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points.
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On the Net
Field Poll: http://field.com/fieldpollonline
This state is so stupid it makes me seriously consider moving. Do people even remember why we had a recall?
What do the National Weather Service, my stock broker and the Field Poll have in common?
I agree, a lot of loud voices are opposed, but in the end, I believe most will recognize these changes are necessary and they will pass.
My absentee ballot went in a week ago with a YES vote on all Arnold's propositions. All the local talk radio shows are letting the NO people call in. They only serve to illustrate what complete "idiots" the Liberals are. They open their mouths and out comes illiterate garbage.
Okay, it's like a broken clock. {And you're cherry picking}.
The Survey USA Poll had them all winning.
Nice try, Marvin.
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