Between the period October 18-30, The Field Poll conducted two separate, back-to-back statewide surveys of likely voters in the upcoming special election. The first was completed October 18-24, while the second was completed October 25-30.
This report covers the survey’s findings for five of the initiatives – Prop. 74 (Public School Teacher Tenure); Prop 75 (Public Employee Union Dues); Proposition 76 (State Spending and School Funding Limits); Prop. 77 (Redistricting); and Prop. 80 (Electric Service Providers Regulation).
A companion report to be released tomorrow will deal with voter reactions toward three health-related initiatives – Prop. 73, the parental notification of teen abortion initiative, and Props. 78 and 79, the two prescription drug discount measures.
In each polling period, voters were first asked whether they had seen or heard anything about each initiative and voters who were already familiar with each initiative were asked for their initial reaction to it prior to being read a summary of its official ballot description. Following this, all voters regardless of their prior awareness were asked how they intended to vote after being read a summary of its official ballot label.
The results show that large majorities now report being familiar with most of the initiatives, and that in the poll’s final interviewing wave the NO side was prevailing in all five of the propositions, including the four backed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The Field Poll #2174 Tuesday, November 1, 2005 Page 2
High voter awareness on most initiatives; aware voters more predisposed to vote NO than YES on each initiative.
The sample of likely voters interviewed in each survey wave were first asked the extent to which they had seen or heard anything about each of the initiatives. The level of expressed awareness was extremely high with regard to four of the five initiatives. In the survey’s final interviewing period 93% said they were familiar with Prop. 75, 88% had heard of Prop. 74, 81% were aware of Prop 76, and 76% had some prior knowledge of Prop. 77. By contrast, just 50% were familiar with Prop. 80.
Voters who reported some prior awareness of an initiative were then asked, without any further prompting, whether they were inclined to support or oppose it.
Results from the survey’s final interviewing wave show the following initial predispositions among those voters already familiar with each initiative (prior to being read its official ballot summary):
• Among the 88% of voters familiar with Prop. 74, 44% were initially opposed, 34% were in favor and 10% were undecided.
• Among the 93% of likely voters aware of Prop. 75, 46% were initially predisposed to vote NO, 29% were in favor and 18% were undecided.
• Among the 81% of voters with some prior knowledge of Prop. 76, 40% initially reported being opposed, 27% were inclined to support it and 14% were undecided.
• With regard to the 76% of likely voters familiar with Prop. 77, 36% were predisposed to vote NO, 31% indicated their initial support and 9% were undecided.
• Among the 50% of voters with some prior awareness of Prop. 80, 23% were initially opposed, 13% said they were inclined to support it and 14% were undecided.
PDF file of poll #2174
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2174.pdf
LIKELY voters...
I wonder how they figured out which people were likely voters?
They can not rely upon "voted in the last 3 elections" or something as simple as that. This is a special election and the number of voters is going to be extremely low.
This state is so stupid it makes me seriously consider moving. Do people even remember why we had a recall?
The Survey USA Poll had them all winning.
What's this "initially" business?
Polls Show Contrasting Results For Gov.'s Propositions (CA)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1513769/posts
A new Field Poll shows all four of the governor's propositions failing.
But a Stanford University - Hoover Institution Knowledge Networks poll shows three of four initiatives passing.
On Proposition 75, the Stanford poll shows 64 percent support restricting use of union dues in campaigns, while the Field Poll shows just 40 percent in favor.
The Stanford poll shows 45 percent supporting Proposition 76, while the Field Poll shows just 32 percent supporting the governor's budget reform effort.