Posted on 11/02/2005 6:32:08 AM PST by NapkinUser
There are some things you can count on. The sun will rise in the east. Night will follow day. Birds will fly south for the winter. And the final Washington Post poll of a Virginia gubernatorial campaign will be slanted against the Republican candidate in an effort to suppress Republican turnout.
The Washington Post released its findings today and shows Tim Kaine with a 47-to-44 lead over Jerry Kilgore, a statistical tie when the margin of error of 3% is considered. On its face, the poll may indicate one thing or another. But if you reflect for a moment on the history of the Washington Post poll, it becomes clear that Jerry is well-positioned to win the election on November 8th.
In 1993, the final Post poll shortchanged George Allen's percentage by six points. In 1997, Jim Gilmore won eight percent more of the vote than the Post gave him credit for. Mark Earley performed six points better than the Post predicted in 2001. Over the course of the last three gubernatorial races, the Post has misstated Republican performance by an average of 6.6 points. Most publications would shy away from continuing to publish such erroneous polls, but since the Post insists on doing so, it is incumbent upon us all once again to prove its fallibility.
History aside, why are we so confident that this new Post poll is patently flawed and wrong?
1. The new numbers are the result of a poll that was begun on the same day the Washington Post endorsed Tim Kaine. Since that time, the editorial page has repackaged its endorsement and reprinted it almost daily. While these survey results may well reflect the sentiments and desires of liberal editorial writers, they in no way reflect reality.
2. If you will notice in the poll analysis article, several regional breakdowns are not printed. Why? Because the Post poll shows that Jerry Kilgore is losing by five points in his home region of Southwest Virginia and tied in the Shenandoah Valley. Anyone familiar with the ongoing public polling in this race knows that Jerry Kilgore has had double digit leads in both of those regions and will win those regions by double digits. What is crystal clear is that while the Washington Post's worldview may stop at the Beltway, the Commonwealth of Virginia does not.
3. The poll was conducted on Sunday through Wednesday of this past week. A quick glance back reveals that on early Sunday afternoon when the poll began, the Washington Redskins were playing a home game televised across the entire Commonwealth, the Martinsville NASCAR race was being televised and many families were still in church. The poll concluded its interviews on Wednesday night, another big night for church attendance in rural Virginia.
4. The new Post poll has Governor Warner's job approval rating at 80%. When all recent public polls have him hovering in the low 70's, one might infer by this particular number that the Post pollster may very well have over-sampled Democrats by anywhere from 6-8 points.
The bottom line is the Post ran a bad poll and they decided to report the faulty numbers anyway rather than admit there was a mistake and start over again. Think about it, a poll that shows Jerry losing in Southwest Virginia and tied in the Shenandoah Valley. It does not take much to conclude given these facts and the history of Washington Post poll consistently being inaccurate that the news today is based upon a bad poll that is not worth the paper it is printed on.
We all know the race is close and have said so repeatedly. We all know the Washington Post is not our friend and has again with this poll demonstrated a serious lack of judgment, and as a result, lacks the credibility to be taken seriously. And we all know that we have the superior ground operation to turn our vote out on Election Day.
With less than 10 days to go in this campaign we are ready to implement an unprecedented get-out-the-vote operation unseen in Virginia politics. It will be this effort that assures success on November 8th. Thank you for your tremendous efforts so far in the campaign and with your help in the final "Countdown to Victory," we will be victorious.
You're headline belongs in the DOG BITES MAN category.
"1. The new numbers are the result of a poll that was begun on the same day the Washington Post endorsed Tim Kaine. Since that time, the editorial page has repackaged its endorsement and reprinted it almost daily. While these survey results may well reflect the sentiments and desires of liberal editorial writers, they in no way reflect reality."
This is the overriding reason that Media should NEVER, NEVER, NEVER endorse a political candidate. It is a HUGE conflict of interest and the inherent bias makes them destined to misinform the public.
"This is the overriding reason that Media should NEVER, NEVER, NEVER endorse a political candidate. It is a HUGE conflict of interest and the inherent bias makes them destined to misinform the public."
Hey, they're private companies.
They own their printing presses and broadcast antennae.
One of the perks of being the owner of a media outlet is that you can use that to try and get people to think like you do. Indeed, that is the main motivation of folks like Al Franken; also of many journalists and every editorial page writer.
As consumers of infotainment, we choose what to buy and what to turn on. When they start going in a direction I don't like, I turn off the channel and stop buying the paper. The New York Times is laying off staff and withering in circulation precisely because a lot of people have had enough of their propaganda.
As a broad generality, I'd say that any conservative who doesn't have a subscription to the Wall Street Journal but who does subscribe to the NY Times or the Washington Post is funding his own enemies while depriving his friends of the resources they would use to get the message he believes in out there.
Nobody reads the ComPost anymore.
Thanks for posting this, we are sweating it out these last couple days.
I have come across some discontent among 2nd Amendment groups in the Commonwealth with Kilgore - specifically VCDL and GOA - for not filling out their questionaire. Apparently Kaine did and Kilgore has in previous elections. Some of the members of both groups are planning on not voting in the Gov race in protest. Has anyone come across any of this?
"As a broad generality, I'd say that any conservative who doesn't have a subscription to the Wall Street Journal but who does subscribe to the NY Times or the Washington Post is funding his own enemies while depriving his friends of the resources they would use to get the message he believes in out there."
Agreed, The Washington Times is a good replacement for the Post. I am the only one on my block that gets the little orange bag on my doorstep every morning.....
You know I'm kind of split on these polls because they are a obvious political trick used as you suggest. But I'm not so sure that in the long run they don't work in the conservatives favor by making the liberals think that middle America actually supports their crazy agenda.
The fact is the democrats/MSM continue to publish misleading push polls with more and more frequency and lose elections by more and more points. I'm not so sure the two are unrelated, I'm sure of one thing if a poll changes someones mind they probably don't vote anyway....
That doesn't prove the polls were inaccurate, it's just more proof that Republicans routinely cheat. What are you going to believe, a few scraps of paper which were probably designed to be too hard for Democrats to use, or polls conducted by Democrat journalists talking to a small percentage of the electorate? < / liberal moonbat logic>
The problem wasn't that Kilgore didn't fill out the surveys, though that certainly didn't make a lot of folks happy. Nope, the real issue is that the campaign staff 1) personally insulted Phil Van Cleave (printed in Washington Times 10/01/05), and 2) were extremely rude and insulting (I'm talking major four-letter verbiage here, both on the phone and in emails) to some of the local Republican officials who contacted the campaign to find out WTF was going on, and why our poll workers were suddenly bailing out on us.
I'll have to read the the 10/1 article - do you know what set him off on Van Cleave? I just got a call from my brother a week ago - he belongs to both GOA and VCDL, and he was hopping mad - but he didn't give me any specifics. Assuming Kilgore is aware this is going on since it involves staff - I am wondering what he can do to repair the situation.
They better kiss and make up. What is going to happen under the Kaine administration?
Thanks for the info.
Yeah, it's usually a real bad idea for politicians and their servants to get it into their heads to think they can insult voters, no matter how irritating voters can be.
It's sort of like retail stores insulting their customers.
Actually, it's pretty much EXACTLY like retail stores insulting their customers.
Query: is the owner of the local McDonald's richer than 99% of the people who walk through the door of his restaurant? You bet he is. He probably sunk $1 million in the franchise, which means he had access to $1 million in business credit. Very few people do.
So, when I go in and order my burger, if the owner happens to be working the counter, that millionaire had damned well be duly obsequious and respectful and let me "Have It My Way", or I walk out and don't buy his damned fries. He won't stay rich, or in business, for long if he insults his customers. And the same thing is true if his minimum wage workers start insulting the customers.
Politicians who insult voters are fools.
Because politicians are utterly replaceable with some other ex-high-school-class-president office-holder wannabees.
But voters are the permanent customer base.
Why would any campaign worker ever think he was doing his job and helping his candidate out by hurling four letter words at ANY voter, no matter how irritating?
I have absolutely no idea. The quote came from out of nowhere. All Kilgore has to do is apologize and he'll pick up a few thousand more votes.
What is going to happen under the Kaine administration?
On gun rights, probably nothing. We'll see a four year impasse since the House will remain solidly Republican, and no gun-control bill will make it out of the M&P committee.
Just read the article (Wash times)- staffers making stupid comments. Kilgore's people don't know the mess they have created. There needs to be an intervention soon.
I'll still vote for Kilgore though. The illegal immigration issue is too important - someone needs to take a stand.
On radio, Kilgore says concealed-gun permit should extend to bars
We've been over this a thousand times. And it's darn time the whiney single-issue voters got over it.
Any gun owner who thinks things won't change or who thinks their guns are safe if Tim Kaine is elected is a fool.
It's just that simple. And don't give me that marlarky about Mark Warner being pro-gun. Maybe he is.
But Tim Kaine is NOT Mark Warner.
Candidates and campaigns and campaign staffers make lots of decisions, and lots of comments. I'm not privy to the reasoning of the Kilgore campaign and perhaps I would have made different decisions/statements.
But Jerry Kilgore is the only pro-gun candidate in this race.
The bottom line with the VCDL and the GOA? Are their issues more important than having their names in the paper?
I'm not so sure.
Thanks for the ping. The WP push poll reminds me of a year ago this time when they said John Kerry was winning and was going to beat George Bush in Virginia. They should stop oversampling the Peoples' Republic of Alexandria. But then, we know accurate reporting isn't important the partisans at the WP.
Maybe so.. maybe no... but cussing at those single-issue voters and telling them that their cause isn't important won't do any good either.
No one is telling them their cause isn't important. FReepers have been all over this board whining about the "fact" that Jerry Kilgore isn't with them on, in particular gun and life issues.
That's just childish and ignorant. And I'll call 'em on it every time.
You're not listening. Kilgore staff have communicated, both via email and on the phone to voters, that the gun issue isn't important in this election.
Tell that to the NRA.
Kilgore Endorsed by National Rifle Association
And tell me why the 2nd Amendment is the only specific issue to get a separate link on the Kilgore for Governor website.
Jerry Kilgore's own words: "I grew up in far Southwest Virginia, on a farm just outside Gate City. I grew up around guns, and was taught at a young age how to properly treat a gun and the importance of ensuring our families are safe. So protecting the Second Amendment is not just some issue I stumbled upon in an election year. It is how I was raised, and it is who I am."
It's an issue. It's not the only issue.
There's a big difference.
And the bottom line remains, anyone who trusts Tim Kaine on this issue is a fool.
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