We know it's naturally produced. The question is whether it's being produced fast enough for us to continue on as we are.
Personally, my theory is that it comes from outer space. The outer space idea and the deep-Earth idea may mean that if we drill deeper, we might find more, but who knows for sure? Unfortunately, we can't assume that everthing will work out, because if it does not, then there will be world wide famine. We can't feed this many people without oil.
So why not do those things now? Because it will be much easier to do it with future technology than with current technology. This is one reason oil companies only explore enough to create a ten year supply of proven reserves.