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Statement as of 3:00 PM CST on November 18, 2005

...Tropical Depression Twenty-Seven re-generates...becomes Tropical
Storm Gamma...

 
at 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...the government of Belize has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of Belize.  The
government of Honduras has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Bay Islands of Honduras.  A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.

 
At 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
tropical storm watch for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
from the Belize-Mexico border northward to Punta Allen.  A tropical
storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor
the progress of Gamma.

 

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 3 PM CST...2100z...the broad and poorly defined center of
Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 16.4 north...
longitude  85.6 west or about   40 miles...  65 km...north of
Limon Honduras and about  190 miles... 300 km...east-southeast of
Belize City Belize.

 
Gamma is moving erratically toward the west-northwest near  5 mph
... 7 km/hr.  This general motion should continue for the next 24
hours...although some erratic motion is possible as the center
re-forms.

 
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near  40 mph... 65 km/hr...with
higher gusts.  Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next
24 hours.

 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km to
the north of the center.  The government of Honduras has reported
that tropical storm-force winds have been observed in the Western
Bay islands of Honduras.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

 
Tropical Storm Gamma is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over Belize...western Cuba...and
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches.  Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches
with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible over
northwestern Honduras.

 
Repeating the 4 PM EST position...16.4 N... 85.6 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  5 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph.  Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 7 PM EST followed by the next
complete advisory at 10 PM EST.

 
Forecaster Beven

Thanks for the ping.

I emailed my sister about this yesterday. She lives in northwestern mountains of Honduras, and yesterday they were warning Honduras and Nicaragua about heavy rains and possible mudslides.

In my wildest dreams, I never thought it might turn toward Florida.

Just damn. I step out for a few hours, and when I come back, Gamma already exists. I'm not surprised, though. From what I saw on the floater, it was inevitable.

I'm getting tired of my predictions coming true. I predicted Wilma would hit around Marco Island at Cat 3, and she did. I predicted we'd reach Gamma, and we have. Maybe I should predict Gamma will dissipate before ever reaching the GOM. Better yet, maybe I should predict there'll be no storms next year. ;)

I see NHC's track has its path across Florida just a little bit south of Wilma's track. Wonderful. At least they show it as a TS for the entire track... but their original intensity forecast for Wilma underestimated her.