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Special General Election - December 6, 2005 United States Representative District 48
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Posted on 12/07/2005 7:56:36 AM PST by Checkers
...What to conclude? Despite massive media attention and around-the-clock boosterism from local radio flaks and know-nothings John & Ken, the candidacy of anti-illegal immigration single issue candidate Jim Gilchrist could only muster 23,237 votes --less than one third of the Graham vote in November of 2004. No "Minuteman" candidate will ever have more favorable conditions than this special election, and still the Minuteman candidate failed miserably. As will a Congressman Tancredo if he mounts a "run" for the presidency.
Hard truth: There is a small, but important anti-illegal immigrant vote. It is less than 10% in one of the most conservative Congressional districts in the country. (Gilchrist tallied less than 10% of the 2004 general election total vote of more than 290,000, even though his highly motivated, single-issue constituency was well-informed and mobilized for the special election. If that's the best this constituency could do in the best of circumstances, it isn't a "movement," it is rather a small, but important "constituency," but not an electorally decisive one.)
The key conclusions: John Campbell will be a Congressman for as long as he chooses to be (30 years?), and other GOP incumbents will study these results very closely and recognize that while there is a 5-to-10% that must be reassured on the security of the border, there is no national tide running that demands an exclusve and relentless focus on illegal immigration.
The twelve words are still the message:
Win the war. Confirm the judges. Cut the taxes. Control the spending.
(Excerpt) Read more at hughhewitt.com ...
However, it just goes to show that single issue candidates (no matter what the issue is) do not win elections.
Many elections are decided by less than a margin of 5%...
Bingo!
No one for immigration reform could get elected for dog-catcher in Mexifornia. Actually his third place protest candidacy may be viewed as a Pyrrhic Victory.
I like those 12 words. I'll add 3 more.
Win the war. Confirm the judges. Cut the taxes. Control the spending. Seal the borders.
... single issue candidates (no matter what the issue is) do not win elections...
I've seen that sentiment expressed before, in connection with the old Whig Party.
It was carved on the tombstone.
Ditto ! It may be a single issue but is a very important issue.
BUMP
yep
You must add three more words: Stop illegal immigration! I don't believe that the anti-illegals are a small minority either. Hewitt is wrong about this issue.
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Special General Election - December 6, 2005 United States Representative District 48
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John Campbell is just another Republican hack cut from the same swath as David Dryer AND Hugh Hewitt.
The Republican party has abandoned conservative tradition and protection of our national sovereignty. John Campbell approved out of state college tuition for illegal aliens and Matricula Consular ID cards. He's a dupe of the Republican party...bought and paid for.
I look forward to hearing his "happy words" for the next 30 years while the State of California continues to fall into the abyss of the 3rd World.
We in California deserve what we get.
The people whose sole issue in life is immigration are a small minority and always will be. They're no different than the people who vote (or don't vote) based solely on abortion, race, gender, etc. Of course single issue types are also very loud and tend to get lots of attention despite their small numbers.
23 percent turnout?
man, that's disgraceful
and we complain about the clowns who represent us in government...
well, when we all have to become fluent in Spanish and/or the next terrorist attack occurs because the borders were left WIDE OPEN; we'll have no one to blame but ourselves!
Seems to me that 25% is a respectable performance for a first-time candidate from an unknown political party.
This sort of reminds me of how GHWB talked about whipping up on Pat Buchanan (of all people) when he beat him by like 17 points in the NH primary in 1992. Of course he whipped Buchanan....but....the real story is that Buchanan should have gotten like 0 votes against a sitting President.
It wouldn't surprise me if Gilchrist was able to get a seat in the Assembly out of this successful but losing run.
Is this like fake but accurate?
Hewitt had to strain his analysis thru several filters to come up with 10 percent. Gilchrist's 25 percent is a very good result given the circumstances.
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