It depends on marketing costs which can run up to $40 million. Since Brokeback has gotten so much free publicitiy, I doubt marketing costs are that high. Overall, the movie will turn a profit, but not be a blockbuster.
Syriana still has only made $44, while costing $50 after 7 weeks. Munich only made $32 while costing $70 after 4 weeks. Those two will likely lose a bunch of money.
So America might see a gay movie, but still rejects anti-American, pro-Palestinian movies....which is nice.
I would disagree with you that Munich is proPalestinian.