Posted on 04/09/2006 6:24:10 AM PDT by Theodore R.
State races could see DeLay effect BY D. LANCE LUNSFORD AVALANCHE-JOURNAL
A Texas Tech professor said the resignation of U.S. Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Sugar Land, will not pack the punch that it would closer to November, but fallout could eventually hit current Republican leadership hard on the state level.
DeLay, who is under indictment on campaign finance charges, announced last week that he will resign from Congress sometime before mid-June.
Craig Goodman, a Tech political science professor, said risk to House Speaker Tom Craddick, R-Midland, and others is evident in races where DeLay associations are played up by campaigns seeking leverage against Republican candidates.
"I don't think Craddick support is quite as solid as it looks from the outside," said Goodman, highlighting the loss of state Rep. Kent Grusendorf, R-Arlington, in last month's primary.
Appointed by Craddick as chairman of the House Public Education Committee, Grusen-dorf lost his primary race by a 59-41 percent vote margin.
Goodman said the result may be indicative of future fallout from DeLay.
In 2003, DeLay helped push a congressional redistricting map that gave Texas more Republican congressional representation. DeLay worked the halls of the state Capitol to move the map through to passage on Craddick's watch.
For Democrats wanting to make moves on Craddick, coupling him with DeLay may prove successful, Goodman said.
"I think it possibly weakens Craddick's hold on the House," he said.
Other races show a trend in Democrats finding the Republicans' Achilles heel.
Bill Miller, an Austin political consultant and lobbyist who helped broker Craddick's grip on the speakership in 2002, said the Texas House District 48 runoff race between Donna Howard and Ben Bentzin in January showed the vulnerability of Republicans to Democrats who associate their opponents with DeLay.
In a runoff for the seat - which had been held by Republican Todd Baxter in a district that included a portion of Northwest Austin - Howard beat Bentzin 57.6 percent to 42.3 percent. Bentzin's campaign took a significant hit when news broke that he had hired political consultant John Colyandro to work on his failed 2002 Senate campaign against then-Sen. Gonzalo Barrientos, D-Austin.
Colyandro is now a defendant with DeLay and also has been indicted on charges of money laundering.
Miller said the association struck a chord with voters.
However, Miller said Craddick's continued hold on the speaker's gavel is already secured for coming sessions.
"He's already got the pledges to be re-elected," Miller said.
But having DeLay out avoids more problems for Republicans in November, Miller said.
"My guess is that DeLay's departure from public life probably helps everyone that's a Republican," Miller said. "He's a lightning rod for a lot of criticisms."
Getting out early enough for Republicans facing off in November, DeLay's departure clears an otherwise tumultuous path, Goodman said.
"DeLay's decision was strategic in the sense that basically it's going to be hard for Democrats to run ads between now and Novermber of Tom DeLay," Goodman said.
Todd Olsen, who until the resignation announcement served as DeLay's political consultant in Austin, said the impact will not be as hefty on other Texas Republicans in leadership roles compared to other challenges already traversed.
"The impact from DeLay is less than the impact from (James) Leininger," Olsen said, highlighting the San Antonio physician and Republican whose substantial support of conservative candidates draws criticism from Democrats.
More important, perhaps, than the political impact on Republicans is the political loss to Texans, Goodman said.
Though he gave up his seat as House majority leader in September 2005, DeLay did not give up his actual seat in Congress. In effect, he retained positions of power that allowed Texans access to congressionally dealt expenditures.
"DeLay will be off the appropriations committee, which has been quite valuable for sending money back to the state of Texas," Goodman said.
Goodman said without the seat, DeLay's lack of influence on the committee leaves Texans with less power in Congress. Those who could step in are relatively new to Congress, he said, requiring time working in the trenches before seniority can take hold.
To comment on this story:
lance.lunsford@lubbockonline.com 766-8795
brian.williams@lubbockonline.com 766-8717
Maybe it is just wishful thinking on the part of the Democrats.
No doubt losing Delay in Congress will hurt the Conservatives, since he was a strong leader.
I doubt very seriously that his loss will hurt anything on the State level.
Former Harris County GOP Chairman Gary Polland explains why holding the DeLay seat may not happen:
Why Conventional Wisdom Is Wrong:
Holding DeLay Seat For GOP Will Be Tough
TCR has researched the 22nd Congressional District of Texas prospects for fall 2006 and finds that those who say "any" Republican that's not Tom DeLay can beat Democrat Nick Lampson are flat wrong. Lets review the reasons why!
Nick Lampson has $2.5 million in the bank, his GOP opponent zero and the traditional GOP donors are tapped out by Tom's aggressive fundraising.
The 22nd District ORVS(Optimal Republican Voting Strength) is only 56%, down from previous years because DeLay gave up GOP voters to help other Republicans.
The past strong GOP straight ticket pull is weakened by the four possible candidates for Governor. The GOP's candidate Rick Perry should win, but probably won't get over 50 percent in this district.
The conservative base is upset about immigration, runaway federal spending, prescription drugs, inaction on gay marriage, etc. and when the base is angry, they stay home. The Democrats nationally are motivated and think they can take back the House, boosting turnout.
President Bush's popularity continues to plummet, what effect will that have on turnout and swing voters?
The nomination process may not involve the critical consideration of nominating the most electable candidate. If the GOP nominates an unknown, without proven ability to raise money, we could be paving the way for defeat in November.
So what should we be looking for in a candidate to take on Nick Lampson?
Strongly electable
Proven fundraiser
Principled conservative
Experienced candidate in a large district
Good positive name identification as low ID candidates will be defined by the Lampson campaign before they know what hit them.
Lampson is not getting any money from the District, but was being supported by the National Democatic Party hoping to unseat Delay.
As for turnout, many Republicans are upset at the way Delay was treated and will turnout to keep the seat in GOP hands.
This District went 63% for Bush.
I have the best congressman in congress--Kevin Brady.
Whats worse is that he is a liberal.
I have the best congressman in congress--Kevin Brady.
What District?
What District?
District 8
He's conservative; we got him in re-districting.
You won't believe this--he lives in his district and commutes to D.C. We live about 2 hours from Conroe, where he and family live, and he was here for our local air show. It's common to see him around town and he doesn't need a vote in our county to win re-election.
Let him know how well you think of him, I am sure he would appreciate it.
We usually only complain to our Representatives, but they can use a pat on the back when they are doing a good job.
IMO, true conservative voters will not stay home in November unless the GOP doesn't get moving on sealing the damn border. That is the one thing we are most adamant about.
04/11/06 KJAS--Mike Lout
Congressman Kevin Brady, who serves the Eighth District of the US House of Representatives, will bring Alphonso Jackson, Secretary of the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development to southeast Texas today to tour the damage that still exists in the area as a result of hurricane Rita. Word is that Brady will be doing so in an attempt to persuade the agency to provide more assistance for the region and the people who live here.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.